First we would like to remind you that the weekend update that normally goes on line on Friday evening will go on line any time between Friday evening and Sunday night this weekend because we will be out of town.   Also we remind you we will attempt to do an update on Monday evening of next week but there will be no update on Tuesday evening because we will be traveling back to California that night.  

Yesterday we commented on the exponential 200 day moving average for the Dow and the S&P and today that exponential average was challenged once again.   Our conclusion is that it was challenged unsuccessfully, at least so far, but our opinion is not decisive as yet.   On the Dow, the exponential 200 day moving average was at 8,856.72 today. The Dow showed a true challenge of that moving average with an intraday high of 8878, but closed the day almost 100 points lower at 8771.   The exponential 200 day moving average on the S&P today was at 943.57.   The S&P cash traveled well above that moving average during the day but closed virtually on it at 944.89.   Remember that the June 2nd close on the S&P was above the moving average by less than 1 point.   Today's close was above the moving average by just over 1 point.    

We made a fascinating discovery today and we regret not having looked into it sooner.   Our research on the bear market rallies during the 1929-1932 decline was centered on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.   That is how we derived the 25.8% envelope   below the two year moving average.   It was our benchmark because none of the bear market rallies in the 1929-1932 decline could move above that envelope .   Because both the Dow and the S&P have now moved a few percent above that envelope , we decided to go back and look at the S&P index and its extremes at the tops of bear market rallies during that same catastrophic market decline of 1929-1932.   In the rally that we thought was most analogous to the current one, the rally from December 1930 into February 1931, the S&P index actually moved up to what would be an envelope   20.5% below the two year moving average.   We found that fascinating because we thought it would correspond more closely to this rally, so we were anxious to apply that envelope   to current market conditions.   Here are the results. A 20.5% envelope   below the S&P 500 two year moving average would be at 965.48 today.   The corresponding reading on the Dow Jones Industrial Average would be 8875.   Perhaps you remember the Dow high print for the day which we gave you above, namely 8878.   Pretty interesting, isn't it

We assume there are some of you out there who believe we will continue to dig and find comparisons with 1929-1932 no matter how high this bear market rally should go.   We like to think that is not the case and we think the comparison just raised is a legitimate one.  

Once again today, new multi month highs were registered at the close by some indexes with the McClellan Oscillator in negative territory.   As we noted several days ago, that is a rare coincidence and on some occasions it has occurred at relatively important market tops.  

The McClellan Oscillator closed today at -14.2 with the McClellan Summation index at +4,514.4.   The ratio adjusted McClellan Oscillator closed at -4.6 with its Summation index at + 1,136.8.   The CI/NCI ratio closed at 0.995 with the S&P ratio at 0.971.   Here are today's Trading Index moving averages:.

Single-day	0.83
10 day	1.30
Open 10	1.12
New 10	0.64
Open 30	1.09
TRIN 5	5.52