If you were to look at the advances and declines today and note that only six issues separated them, and then note that the S&P 500 cash index closed less than three points below yesterday's close, you might surmise it was a rather boring day. What really happened was a 20 minute crash at the opening that saw the Dow down almost 200 points within the first 20 minutes.
Despite today's 20 minute crash, none of the upside projections was affected, at least not yet. We have been using the exponential 55 day moving averages as guidelines to delineate whether we want to remain in our mutual fund positions that are leveraged to the upside. Those moving averages were easily exceeded in the 20 minute crash but they held on a closing basis. This is a positive sign, at least for the short-term.
There has been a fairly consistent 13 trading day turning point pattern that was scheduled to resolve today. Here are its most recent resolutions, working backwards in time: February 5, January 19, December 29, December 9, November 19, and November 2.
Remember also our study of single day TRIN readings of 2.90 or higher that we gave you on Tuesday's update. The reading seen on Tuesday suggested a potential bottom by Friday at the latest. We believe there is a good chance that bottom was seen today.
The McClellan Oscillator closed today at +89.1 with the McClellan Summation Index at +2436.7. The ratio adjusted McClellan Oscillator at +28.6 with its Summation Index at +475.1. The CI/NCI ratio closed at 1.079 with the S&P ratio at 1.046. Here are today's Trading Index moving averages:.
| Single-day |
1.07 |
| 10 day |
1.14 |
| Open 10 |
1.07 |
| New 10 |
0.59 |
| Open 30 |
1.13 |
| TRIN 5 |
6.96 |
The S&P 500 New 10 TRIN closed at 0.69 with the New 20 at 0.96.
Mutual fund switchers--Rydex switchers are in the Rydex S&P 500 2X Strategy Fund. Use the same instructions as we gave you yesterday. Exit the fund if the S&P 500 cash index is below 1092 at 3:40 PM Eastern time. Fidelity switchers are in 100% cash positions.All mutual-fund switchers should call the telephone update each market day after 3:20 PM Eastern time but before 3:40 PM and also each market evening.
Stock-index futures traders--it was easy to see how trading these futures can be hazardous to our financial health when we give instructions only every 24 hours. Today's gap down of 16 points stopped us out at 1087.50 for a loss of 13.25 on the trade. Tomorrow, attempt to buy at 1102.75 or lower if they open lower with a stop 10 points below the purchase price.
There are no new projections for the gold complex or the bonds.Have a great day! We will talk to you tomorrow.
This page updated on 4/10/10
