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(Daily Phone Updates for the market are available with a subscription to Stockmarket Cycles. The following is a previous Daily Phone Update.) Stockmarket Cycles update for Thursday, May 15th We hardly know where to begin! it seems that so many indicators and prices and moving averages have converged to an area that should be a high confidence zone for selling. Let's begin with some of the basics.
Once again, the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved right up into the price zone identified in the front-page chart of our May 2nd newsletter. Let's review the current location of these resistance lines. Line number one is an upper parallel channel constructed by using the panic lows of August 16th, 2007 and January 22nd 2008 as the lower parallel channel and placing a parallel line through the all-time intraday high of October 11th, 2007. Today, that line was at 12,987. The Dow closed today at 12,992.66. The line numbered 2 on the chart is a simple 200 day moving average of the Dow. That closed today at 13,016.46. Today's theoretical intraday high was 13,028.16.
The line numbered 3 is a 300 day moving average which closed today at 13,068.42.
The line numbered 4 is the neckline of a potential head and shoulders formation on the Dow that was formed back in 2007 and is constructed by simply drawing a line through lows of August 16th, 2007 and November 26th, 2007. That line today was at 13,079.
The number 5 line is the remarkable trendline going all the way back to August 1982. That line today was at 13,086.
Some of those lines are advancing while others are declining but all of them have been reached within the past two weeks and they have continuously resisted further market advances.
Another interesting facet of today's market action was the fact that both the S&P 500 and the New York Composite Index closed at new recovery highs today while the Dow was unable to do so. What makes that even more interesting is the fact that the S&P 500 has now moved up to its equivalent upper parallel channel line, the line equivalent to line number 1 explained above for the Dow. When the Dow originally reached this equivalent line two weeks ago, the S&P was well below its equivalent line. One would have thought two weeks ago that if the S&P reached its upper parallel channel the Dow would almost surely move above its channel. Because the Dow has lagged here, they have now both reached their respective upper parallel channels where there should be formidable resistance.
The cumulative advance/decline ratio on the New York Stock Exchange reached virtually exactly up to its downtrend line through the highs of July 13th, 2007 and October 10, 2007, and at the same time, up to its own upper parallel channel based on the lower channel lines through the lows of August 16th, 2007 and March 17th 2008.
As if to add frosting to the bearish cake, both the VIX Index and the VXN index closed well below their lower Bollinger bands today. The VXN move to its lowest level since October 10th, 2007 while the VIX Index moved to its lowest level since October 9th, 2007, the date of the all-time high close on the S&P 500 and many other indexes. The old VIX Index (VXO) missed closing below its lower Bollinger Band by the narrowest of margins, 17.37 vs Bollinger Band at 17.35. Now, however, both VIX and VXN are in a position to give a sell signals.
The American Association of individual investors' sentiment reading today was not 53ish for the percentage of bulls but was still a relatively high 45.2 vs 29.7% bears and now both the five week and the 10 week moving averages of the plurality of bulls over bears have moved into positive territory and are oversold no longer.
The list could go on and on. Let's not forget to mention yesterday's nominal 10 day upside closing price projections. The Dow closed exactly within its projection window while both the S&P and the New York Composite Index fully met their projections and closed somewhat above their upper projection windows. There are so many things pointing to a prospective high at these levels that those of us with a bearish outlook have to be quite careful. Even in apparently obvious circumstances, the market always enjoys dealing out surprises to cocky analysts. Let's keep that in mind.
The McClellan Oscillator closed today at + 126.2 with the McClellan Summation index at + 2,244.9. The ratio adjusted McClellan Oscillator closed at + 40.4 with its Summation index at + 391.0. The CI/NCI ratio closed at 1.007 with the S&P ratio at 0.997. Here are today's Trading Index moving averages:
The S&P 500 New 10 TRIN closed at 0.805.
Mutual-fund switchers-- we placed a special update on line around 3:15 p.m. Eastern time recommending purchase of the Rydex inverse S&P 500 2X Strategy Fund. It was purchased at today's closing price of 29.84. Fidelity switchers remain in 100% cash positions. All mutual-fund switchers should call the telephone update each market day after 3:20 p.m. Eastern time and each market evening. Stock-index futures traders-- sell short tomorrow's opening on the S&P June e-mini contract with a stop 10.75 above the opening price. There are no new projections for the gold complex or the bonds. Have a great day. We'll talk to you tomorrow.
This page updated on 7/10/08 |
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