SMC Special Update 6-30-23 9AM Pacific

06/30/2023


Comments (20)
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brian1469
brian1469

Thanks Peter for showing where the 7/8 was on the upside.

Rolled out my October spread on SPX until next year.

Waiting to see what happens next week from here

daniel039209
daniel039209

what did Einstein say about doing the same thing over and over and over...? We have had a 23.5% rally in SPX ( much much much larger in almost every big cap tech name 50%,200%?) and that pullback from the June 16th level was 2.35% A garden variety 3-5 day pullback, right back to highs in 4 days. and you still stand by that ever increasing trendline as some sort of delineation point? are we going to see this line as much as the focus was on the VIX from 20-21 to 13. well, you dont mention anymore, not sure where you gave up. please, lets have some intellectual honesty. Your bias is similar to Hussman, Mike Wilson, Marco( at JPM) you are unable to see the leading stocks leading the whole market and meanwhile the RSP, IWM arent crap any longer. have a good weekend

daniel039209
daniel039209

one more thing, when we do stop this record setting advance, and pullback 6-8% it will be a pyrrhic victory--might get back to May 24 levels...not a crash, not a cascade. tops take a long time to form, not in a day or 4

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

/@NQ MONTHLY , 60MIN JUST GAVE A NICE 15775 PROJECTION

only 400 points

whats that when you missed

T H O U S A N D S

of points.

/ES 4500

you were bearish AT /ES3500 !!! 1000 POINTS OMG PETER PETER PETER HOW ? AFTER SO MANY YEARS IN THE MARKET

omg such terrible analysis

even your friend LARRY WILLIAMS told you and you still didnt listen

/YM 34700 WOW

/RTY 1911

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

brian1469 said:

Thanks Peter for showing where the 7/8 was on the upside.

Rolled out my October spread on SPX until next year.

Waiting to see what happens next week from here

?????? WHY ????

LOOK AT $DIA /YM /RTY LOOK AT THE PROJECTIONS

DAMN

OVER 4TH OF JULY STUDY .. SEE WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU HAVE " ZWEIG " 3% WEEKS YOU DONT FAIL EVER

LIKE NEVER... EVER NEVER

FORGET VODDOOOOO TREND LINES AND VXX THAT HE DOES NOT TALK ABOUT ANYMORE

HE WILL TALK ABOUT THE MOONS IN 3 WEEKS

ericoh792283
ericoh792283

Peter ur bear bias has really killed your credibility

ericoh792283
ericoh792283

actually at this point, you have 0

ericoh792283
ericoh792283

You have helped your subscribers from not investing when we hit the bottom in October and kept shorting all the way, and now only 300 points from SPX all time high. How desperate are you continuing to give your bearish view when every TA is saying Bull!

daniel039209
daniel039209

ericoh792283 said:

You have helped your subscribers from not investing when we hit the bottom in October and kept shorting all the way, and now only 300 points from SPX all time high. How desperate are you continuing to give your bearish when every TA is saying Bull!

I concur. I know we all make our own decisions. And maybe that is the beginning and end of that. But, when you pay for what you believe to be reliable, confirmed research/cycle analysis and projections, one gets influenced- I do. Thank goodness, i do alot of my own work and have witnessed Peter being bearish from March 2021. we peaked in Jan 2022. To the guy "rolling his put spread" ...maybe just eat that loss?. Why be bearish minded for another 7 months? Until we break a 10,20,50 day moving ave, --and I dont care if we go all the way back down to 3 days ago low, it is meaningless. i alwasy quote peter lynch; "way more $$$ lost trying to pick the top, getting out early, or SHORTING than if you lived thru declines." yes, even the awful declines against the amazing trendline . I think im done commenting, i do appreciate well researched ideas that are shared in here. No disrespect, but not " Japan-34 year high, its gonna crash" 'BTC gonna crash" " DJIA , AAPL gonna crash" that is Twitter nonsense level . Decent technical work is always appreciated. And less ad hominin attacks. Good luck !

brian1469
brian1469

daniel039209 said:

ericoh792283 said:

You have helped your subscribers from not investing when we hit the bottom in October and kept shorting all the way, and now only 300 points from SPX all time high. How desperate are you continuing to give your bearish when every TA is saying Bull!

I concur. I know we all make our own decisions. And maybe that is the beginning and end of that. But, when you pay for what you believe to be reliable, confirmed research/cycle analysis and projections, one gets influenced- I do. Thank goodness, i do alot of my own work and have witnessed Peter being bearish from March 2021. we peaked in Jan 2022. To the guy "rolling his put spread" ...maybe just eat that loss?. Why be bearish minded for another 7 months? Until we break a 10,20,50 day moving ave, --and I dont care if we go all the way back down to 3 days ago low, it is meaningless. i alwasy quote peter lynch; "way more $$$ lost trying to pick the top, getting out early, or SHORTING than if you lived thru declines." yes, even the awful declines against the amazing trendline . I think im done commenting, i do appreciate well researched ideas that are shared in here. No disrespect, but not " Japan-34 year high, its gonna crash" 'BTC gonna crash" " DJIA , AAPL gonna crash" that is Twitter nonsense level . Decent technical work is always appreciated. And less ad hominin attacks. Good luck !

I hedge most of my exposure on my SPX spreads through MES. I would much rather roll it here.

I see a decent pullback here the next few months with all these huge divergences going on.

It's all right I get it you are bullish.

Last updated

brian1469
brian1469

LOL Futures getting hit and VIX exploding last 5 minutes

Hopefully we get an island reversal next week

Lost 38.2% of entire day gains on last 5 mins on $SPY

https://twitter.com/Fitzstock2004/status/1674876533582725121

Last updated

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

AAPL Update: AAPL Hit the 193.41 Target then it gunned for 194.80 Target narrowly missing it. The high was 194.48. The next 3 trading days are key. I do expect a quick drop next week into July 7th before one more rally for the blow off Top. It’s still possible for AAPL to gun for the stretch Target 197.61 before markets peak on July 10th or 11th.
Everyone Enjoy Long July 4th weekend🇺🇸. ~Dorothy

Limeguy
Limeguy

Thank you for the special update. The projections work. Unlike some people, I have had a lot of success with them. Keep it up.

It would be very nice to put up all the projections (per time frame) on one screen. Showing how the projections "line up" like a relay race. 5min, 15min, 30 min, 65min, daily and weekly. Currently I do this manually and it is a lot of work. When they line up, prices follow. The "line up" will also show when there is no more overlap. Then it is time to get out and wait for another line up.

Perhaps it would be good to more fully explain how to use them. Meaning, one cannot just look at one (daily/Weekly) projection and stay with it. One needs to look at the much shorter projections and line them up to the longer ones.

Even today, the shorter projections called the top, then a flat and then a short term pullback. If you really look at the short term and the long term projections together, they work 75% of the time. It is amazing how good the projections are when combined with your friend Robert Prechter's Elliott waves short term intraday narrative. (Pro Services)

Limeguy
Limeguy

Thank you for the special update. The projections work. Unlike some people, I have had a lot of success with them. Keep it up.

It would be very nice to put up all the projections (per time frame) on one screen. Showing how the projections "line up" like a relay race. 5min, 15min, 30 min, 65min, daily and weekly. Currently I do this manually and it is a lot of work. When they line up, prices follow. The "line up" will also show when there is no more overlap. Then it is time to get out and wait for another line up.

Perhaps it would be good to more fully explain how to use them. Meaning, one cannot just look at one (daily/Weekly) projection and stay with it. One needs to look at the much shorter projections and line them up to the longer ones.

Even today, the shorter projections called the top, then a flat and then a short term pullback. If you really look at the short term and the long term projections together, they work 75% of the time. It is amazing how good the projections are when combined with your friend Robert Prechter's Elliott waves short term intraday narrative. (Pro Services)

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

PETER Limeguy HAS A EXCELLENT SUGGESTION. I would Add ALWAYS CLICK ON PROJECTION BOX GIVE US THE UPPER PROJECTIONS EVEN IF MINIMUM TARGET HAS BEEN MET! Thanks 🙏

Thank you for the special update. The projections work. Unlike some people, I have had a lot of success with them. Keep it up.

It would be very nice to put up all the projections (per time frame) on one screen. Showing how the projections "line up" like a relay race. 5min, 15min, 30 min, 65min, daily and weekly. Currently I do this manually and it is a lot of work. When they line up, prices follow. The "line up" will also show when there is no more overlap. Then it is time to get out and wait for another line up.

Perhaps it would be good to more fully explain how to use them. Meaning, one cannot just look at one (daily/Weekly) projection and stay with it. One needs to look at the much shorter projections and line them up to the longer ones.

Even today, the shorter projections called the top, then a flat and then a short term pullback. If you really look at the short term and the long term projections together, they work 75% of the time. It is amazing how good the projections are when combined with your friend Robert Prechter's Elliott waves short term intraday narrative. (Pro Services)

jjay636
jjay636

Nasdaq 100 just posted the best first half year performance ever. And this happened while this system had all these longer term mega bearish projections. Absolutely awful!!! I think it should be pretty clear that this model that is based just on price projections alone does not work and can't be relied upon. Not sure why people still trust them without doing timing cycle work, which clearly is not being done on this site(there are others that do attempt to do it). The only price projections one can possibly rely on are 45-60min out to maybe 12-14day price projections which I would admit have been reasonably okay and perhaps could work for more astute day traders…counting on longer term projections without doing timing cycle work only leads to painfully miserable market calls experienced on this site this past year, which unfortunately I had to experience on my own skin…well, live and learn – hopefully modelers on this site start thinking higher level soon and do incorporate timing cycles in conjunction with price projections particularly when dealing with longer term price projections!

ericoh792283
ericoh792283

Watching basic TA and market breadth coming together shows that market has been consolidating and formed bottom back in October. Vudu wave theory i totally ignore. I try to engage Peter’s market cycle into my system for better trading and long term investing. But Peter does not look at basic TA, doesn’t look at other factors that good technicians refer to. He and followers still looking at Vix that’s been damaged and “Amazing Trending Line” that will be broken, and having biased that market is over valued and making comments like “i don’t think it will go up there folks”. How many times have you been wrong this year and, and continuing to push this narrative. I’m sure market will correct 5-10% but that’s healthy in a long run and I hope everyone here will get a chance to buy the dip when that chance comes, not short it at another correction bottom

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

brian1469 said:

LOL Futures getting hit and VIX exploding last 5 minutes

Hopefully we get an island reversal next week

Lost 38.2% of entire day gains on last 5 mins on $SPY

https://twitter.com/Fitzstock2004/status/1674876533582725121

HOW is 38.2 % loss from 444. to 443.09 ? go ahead explain ILL wait. The /es was up 53 points it did not lose 38.2 % in the last 5 mins

brian1469
brian1469

XXSPOWER127 said:

brian1469 said:

LOL Futures getting hit and VIX exploding last 5 minutes

Hopefully we get an island reversal next week

Lost 38.2% of entire day gains on last 5 mins on $SPY

https://twitter.com/Fitzstock2004/status/1674876533582725121

HOW is 38.2 % loss from 444. to 443.09 ? go ahead explain ILL wait. The /es was up 53 points it did not lose 38.2 % in the last 5 mins

The guy should have said after the market close it lost 16 points from the close.

It was probably just rebalancing but the VIX did get a hammer and closed at the high of the day from it.

Somebody had your little hands like you like to talk about

ericoh792283
ericoh792283

Bears just looking for reason to say “crash!” Lol. It’s laughable.

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