SMC Special Update Sunday 6-11 2.45 pm

06/11/2023


Comments (30)
We welcome all comments related to market timing. We do not welcome political and insulting comments, however, and comments of a political nature belong elsewhere and could lead to removal and blocking the originator of such political comments.

You cannot post comments.
Sign up for the Video or Bundle membership now and get access to exclusive content!
Login for Members

daniel039209
daniel039209

Im old enough to remember the May 15th update with a steep "rising wedge" pattern and how that was sure to break down, reverse. NDX was 13455. We are now 14578 and up to 14652 the other day. It takes weeks /month to make a high. Not a 1 day 'miracle" event. And if it is, its a disaster in the world. Playing for that for months on end has helped people how exactly? End of June is the topping zone, down till early August. That is from a very good source. correction: 14660 now. At least the market 'isnt up that much" CORRECTION; 14785 now. ... good thing we aren't up that much still

Last updated

fast3777
fast3777

Well Peter with this ongoing divergence between the OPM NDX and the Institutional Dow. This market could turn on a dime. After all when Goldman Sachs says buy, you know it's doom time,

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

daniel039209 said:

Im old enough to remember the May 15th update with a steep "rising wedge" pattern and how that was sure to break down, reverse. NDX was 13455. We are now 14578 and up to 14652 the other day. It takes weeks /month to make a high. Not a 1 day 'miracle" event. And if it is, its a disaster in the world. Playing for that for months on end has helped people how exactly? End of June is the topping zone, down till early August. That is from a very good source.

Daniel Curious who’s your source? My profile shows peak June 21st & a double top or lower high July 11th then collapsing into Aug 2nd. Very Similar to yours. Profiles can flip so I’m not at this time willing to say Aug 2nd is a significant Low. I doubt it is. ~Dorothy

daniel039209
daniel039209

Dorothy- end of June —> Beginning of August , market down 68% of time. Seems like a good time zone for a pullback after this huge ramp. Maybe. Lower low later in the fall. Before re ramping back up. At a minimum, you need a "high" then a dip followed by a lower "high" havent had that since December. Also, for real sell off need to break a rising 8dma & 21 dma. And stay below for more than a minute That was March 13th, HUGE weekly candle March 17th..havent looked back. my .02

Last updated

escheuerman791
escheuerman791

I have total respect for you Peter as a technician, but I have been continually trying to short this market with your bearish bias and have lost a good bit with the market - Nasdaq Composite: +26.7% YTD S&P 500: +12.0% YTD Russell 2000: +5.9% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.2% YTD

fast3777
fast3777

The expectations of a continuing move up is ill placed. Why? Because Bitcoin is in a decline to below 10K. The divergence between the speculative NDX and Dow widens everyday and the Dow stocks continue to impulse lower in a series of stealth nested 1'2's. This market will "break" lower at anytime.

daniel039209
daniel039209

escheuerman791 said:

I have total respect for you Peter as a technician, but I have been continually trying to short this market with your bearish bias and have lost a good bit with the market - Nasdaq Composite: +26.7% YTD S&P 500: +12.0% YTD Russell 2000: +5.9% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.2% YTD

wait for a lower high, wait for 8/20 dma to turn down and/or whatever youre shorting trades BELOW that is 1st step.. REally, the 200dma has been one of best averages over time; above, be long or flat(if nervous) . Below the 200 dma be short or flat( if expecting bounce)

brian1469
brian1469

Back from vacation doesn't look like I missed much just the nonstop bid that never ends

QQQ are going to get a fresh new upper projection on the 3/5 daily today it looks like up to $361 area this would also close all upper gaps at $361.10 seems like this should happen since we are so close.

Still short long term SPX spreads

fast3777
fast3777

The Dow is done and you can almost put a fork in the NDX. The Fed has no control on a impulsive down UST market. With all the B.S. spending in D.C. this goose is cooked.

brian1469
brian1469

fast3777 said:

The Dow is done and you can almost put a fork in the NDX. The Fed has no control on a impulsive down UST market. With all the B.S. spending in D.C. this goose is cooked.

DIA closed its gap from 5/1 today

ericoh792283
ericoh792283

Way to go Peter! You keep giving bearish outlook and we do the opposite!

ericoh792283
ericoh792283

Can’t believe every indeces setting new 52 weeks highes and now breadth catching up, Peter and his bears friends still hoping for 20% crash. Lol

elchico714622
elchico714622

How are all the bears doing?

fast3777
fast3777

Reports Biden issued order for evacuation of all Americans from Taiwan. If true the NDX will collapse if China as promised moves on Taiwan in June July.

ericoh792283
ericoh792283

Bears are cooked. Inflation cooling, fed pausing, economy not going into recession. And therefore stock market goes up on good news. Against all odds, climbing wall of worries.

ericoh792283
ericoh792283

Look at these beautiful charts. Higher highs and higher lows since October. Basic TA.

brian1469
brian1469

ericoh792283 said:

Can’t believe every indeces setting new 52 weeks highes and now breadth catching up, Peter and his bears friends still hoping for 20% crash. Lol

I know it sounds crazy but now with the QQQ filling all upper gaps assuming it gets to $359.83 the AVWAP on it for YTD is $309.60 and from the low on 10/13 AVWAP is $298.47.

As trader just playing ranges that is 13%-18% loss that usually attracts prices to its level.

Even AVWAP from the all time high of 11/21/21 is back at $317.50 a 11% drop

I could see that more likely than 20% higher from here. But we will find out.

Maybe they just print zimbawabe style and we go much higher

Last updated

brian1469
brian1469

Went short NQ on the gap final gap fill on the QQQ

ericoh792283
ericoh792283

Every aunt and uncle going short at 360, that’s why it will grind higher

daniel039209
daniel039209

fast3777 said:

Reports Biden issued order for evacuation of all Americans from Taiwan. If true the NDX will collapse if China as promised moves on Taiwan in June July.

NOT TRUE

1-20 of 30