SMC Update 11-17-22

11/17/2022


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spencerdavis2000
spencerdavis2000

thanks Peter travel safe. yeah bummer the Dow higher projection, but like you said the NDX downside projections as well as SPX and it does look to me that all we need to do is move sideways until Dec 5 from that chart and it should give a downside projection, plus with all of the technical patterns and the fact that we seem to have a very hawkish Fed even though all the other Fed puppets flip back and forth. Nobody knows the future but I am leaning short. Time will tell how it turns out.

kwmurphy2939
kwmurphy2939

Interesting. You may have heard of Bill Erman. He left his work to me when he passed away. He was a friend of Prechter and others. After the October 13 low, his 'balance point' technique said this: the Dow had bottomed and would rally to an all time high next year. The S&P and Nasdaq would fail miserably as the Dow leads the way, and then all the indexes would collapse into 2024. It corroborates your longer term lower projections in the Nasdaq and S&P, down near the 2020 lows. The work says we will get there, but it will take some time. So, this confirms your projections and what you're seeing, but up and down. Just my 2 cents. And thanks for letting us know what you're seeing.

kwmurphy2939
kwmurphy2939

correction: "both up and down"

DAV15J
DAV15J

NDX rallies 15% and now "this... looks to be concerning for the short term bearish case". 🤷🏼‍♂️ I've only been here several weeks and it is clear the short term projections have been wrong, repeatedly. Why even bother short term projecting?

alexlat
alexlat

"Whoops." Why are we just now hearing about a confirmed projection calling for all-time high in the Dow?

seamus.ssoh3308
seamus.ssoh3308

I'm not doubting that the Dow will reach that projection, but I am not at all even slightly convinced that somehow we will get there within this year. Look at the offsets. We will most likely get close to them again, and not break them because they're too low. Then that also means that by the end of this year we will be very close to those offsets, and could invalidate that higher projection when we get closer to it. I think anyone interpreting this as some kind of game over for the bear case is missing the picture. We almost certainly wont return anywhere near ATH for tech stocks within 4 months, and def not on Crypto.

golf96583493
golf96583493

kwmurphy2939 said:

Interesting. You may have heard of Bill Erman. He left his work to me when he passed away. He was a friend of Prechter and others. After the October 13 low, his 'balance point' technique said this: the Dow had bottomed and would rally to an all time high next year. The S&P and Nasdaq would fail miserably as the Dow leads the way, and then all the indexes would collapse into 2024. It corroborates your longer term lower projections in the Nasdaq and S&P, down near the 2020 lows. The work says we will get there, but it will take some time. So, this confirms your projections and what you're seeing, but up and down. Just my 2 cents. And thanks for letting us know what you're seeing.

@kwmurphy2939 Thanks for sharing this. As Mr. Eliades said - These are interesting times. I only know that Mr Erman's technique uses right angle triangles (I may be wrong) and is incredible.. and am keen to understand more about the technique and his work. Is it possible to share where or how can I refer to the details somewhere for balance point technique.

xkatehis1458
xkatehis1458

Great to hear about your travels and your son Peter. When in Phoenix will visit.

xkatehis1458
xkatehis1458

DAV15J said:

NDX rallies 15% and now "this... looks to be concerning for the short term bearish case". 🤷🏼‍♂️ I've only been here several weeks and it is clear the short term projections have been wrong, repeatedly. Why even bother short term projecting?

DAV15J said:

NDX rallies 15% and now "this... looks to be concerning for the short term bearish case". 🤷🏼‍♂️ I've only been here several weeks and it is clear the short term projections have been wrong, repeatedly. Why even bother short term projecting?

Just remember, in the markets, probabilities are always 50/50.

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

LOL !!!!!! See my previous comments. LOL !!!!

thebigbluecheese
thebigbluecheese

Peter, from time to time you use both closing prices & median prices in your projection analysis. Can you please explain the rationale for each & when & why one would flip between the two?

StevenTexas
StevenTexas

Great reading the comments and very helpful. Marty Armstrong claims money will attract to the "blue chips" of the Dow as the sovereign debt crisis expands. I am counting the days (57 trading days) from the cycle that was apparent and brought to our attention by Peter. That is due on November 28 or 29. Could be a temporary high, with an ugly tax loss month of December since there have been plenty of losses this year! Time pattern Petros shared on 9-12-22

pecoje98643501
pecoje98643501

StevenTexas said:

Great reading the comments and very helpful. Marty Armstrong claims money will attract to the "blue chips" of the Dow as the sovereign debt crisis expands. I am counting the days (57 trading days) from the cycle that was apparent and brought to our attention by Peter. That is due on November 28 or 29. Could be a temporary high, with an ugly tax loss month of December since there have been plenty of losses this year! Time pattern Petros shared on 9-12-22

What does this mean?

pecoje98643501
pecoje98643501

StevenTexas said:

Great reading the comments and very helpful. Marty Armstrong claims money will attract to the "blue chips" of the Dow as the sovereign debt crisis expands. I am counting the days (57 trading days) from the cycle that was apparent and brought to our attention by Peter. That is due on November 28 or 29. Could be a temporary high, with an ugly tax loss month of December since there have been plenty of losses this year! Time pattern Petros shared on 9-12-22

What does this mean?

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

Peter Safe Travels If new upside projections are given to upside today or confirmed it would be helpful to know what level indices would have to drop to cancel upside projections. I’m new to your system. This additional info in your updates would be most helpful. Thanks ~ Dorothy

StevenTexas
StevenTexas

kwmurphy2939 said:

Interesting. You may have heard of Bill Erman. He left his work to me when he passed away. He was a friend of Prechter and others. After the October 13 low, his 'balance point' technique said this: the Dow had bottomed and would rally to an all time high next year. The S&P and Nasdaq would fail miserably as the Dow leads the way, and then all the indexes would collapse into 2024. It corroborates your longer term lower projections in the Nasdaq and S&P, down near the 2020 lows. The work says we will get there, but it will take some time. So, this confirms your projections and what you're seeing, but up and down. Just my 2 cents. And thanks for letting us know what you're seeing.

Thanks KW that is very interesting. Prechter and now EWI (really black bearish) I think they are going to once again have to re-label. Armstrong said over-seas money would flow into the "blue chips" index of the Dow. That would explain the large divergences.

NormanRedus
NormanRedus

Lovely to hear about your family, hope everything goes great.

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

Let’s be real. BEAR suit was worn when it should have been put in the closet and you should have followed the early green projections but you .. you kept saying I DONT THINK ITS GOING TO HAPPEN. I remember what you said. You can paint it anyway you like. I remember.

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

NormanRedus said:

XXSPOWER127 said:

Let’s be real. BEAR suit was worn when it should have been put in the closet and you should have followed the early green projections but you .. you kept saying I DONT THINK ITS GOING TO HAPPEN. I remember what you said. You can paint it anyway you like. I remember.

The projections and the app are cheaper than the video updates, just don't watch them and don't pay $10 a month for 5 videos a week if you don't like his personality added to the mix. And relax, nobody here enjoys reading a shouty boy expressing his unjust anger, Mr. XXSPOWER...

XXSPOWER127 said:

Let’s be real. BEAR suit was worn when it should have been put in the closet and you should have followed the early green projections but you .. you kept saying I DONT THINK ITS GOING TO HAPPEN. I remember what you said. You can paint it anyway you like. I remember.

NormanRedus said:

XXSPOWER127 said:

Let’s be real. BEAR suit was worn when it should have been put in the closet and you should have followed the early green projections but you .. you kept saying I DONT THINK ITS GOING TO HAPPEN. I remember what you said. You can paint it anyway you like. I remember.

The projections and the app are cheaper than the video updates, just don't watch them and don't pay $10 a month for 5 videos a week if you don't like his personality added to the mix. And relax, nobody here enjoys reading a shouty boy expressing his unjust anger, Mr. XXSPOWER...

Mind your own beezwax Norman talkstoomuch

Optimus
Optimus

Thanks, Peter. Safe travels and Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family.

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