SMC Update 11-22-22

11/22/2022


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Optimus
Optimus

Thank you, Peter. The webcam is a good one. Part of me wants you to enjoy this week off. But, then when you give us another gem 💎 the selfish side is glad you didn’t. 😃 Happy Thanksgiving in case you decide to take the Thanksgiving eve off.

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sarvalokeshdh2942
sarvalokeshdh2942

Thanks Peter. Enjoy your vacation

arcon00224
arcon00224

Thanks Peter, great update, much appreciated especially in light of your travels to your family, hope you enjoy all of your time with them

spencerdavis2000
spencerdavis2000

thanks Peter. I appreciate all of the different analysis even the one you claim is not your forte :-) I hope that is what happens.

ryguy
ryguy

Ty for another long update, especially on your vacation. I can tell you love the market. I enjoy listening to everything going on in your brain. Teaching us how to fish! I love the software update. Tell Stefan thank you.

Peter, please speak to the invitation price of the bear case. S&P 4200 seems like the key level.

MJMassens2570
MJMassens2570

Regarding recent upside surprises, particularly from DOW, I can't help but think of 2006/2007 and late 2019...the yield curves inverted, markets made new highs, then the huge drops came months later.

JCtrader
JCtrader

Thanks again!

DAV15J
DAV15J

MJMassens2570 said:

Regarding recent upside surprises, particularly from DOW, I can't help but think of 2006/2007 and late 2019...the yield curves inverted, markets made new highs, then the huge drops came months later.

No doubt but Peter has got the call wrong. He was uber / 100% bearish at 10-15% lower than now. Seems to me the only reason he looked at the bullish projections was because some of us pointed out the market was rising. Not what I pay for.

dumbchristine3486
dumbchristine3486

DAV15J said:

MJMassens2570 said:

Regarding recent upside surprises, particularly from DOW, I can't help but think of 2006/2007 and late 2019...the yield curves inverted, markets made new highs, then the huge drops came months later.

No doubt but Peter has got the call wrong. He was uber / 100% bearish at 10-15% lower than now. Seems to me the only reason he looked at the bullish projections was because some of us pointed out the market was rising. Not what I pay for.

Very true no disrepect toward Peter but when you are wrong you are wrong. The projections where spot on. The question is how the heck do you follow this and trade against it. But the projections where right. Lot of people on the wrong side of the trade

dumbchristine3486
dumbchristine3486

DAV15J said:

MJMassens2570 said:

Regarding recent upside surprises, particularly from DOW, I can't help but think of 2006/2007 and late 2019...the yield curves inverted, markets made new highs, then the huge drops came months later.

No doubt but Peter has got the call wrong. He was uber / 100% bearish at 10-15% lower than now. Seems to me the only reason he looked at the bullish projections was because some of us pointed out the market was rising. Not what I pay for.

Very true no disrepect toward Peter but when you are wrong you are wrong. The projections where spot on. The question is how the heck do you follow this and trade against it. But the projections where right. Lot of people on the wrong side of the trade

daniel039209
daniel039209

It is very difficult to be negative and or short and watch the market climb higher and higher. The market doesn't go down forever. Some of the cautiousness has been right on. But continued bearishness just has people either out or short staring at major losses. We had "a-b-c" corrective bounce last week yet up another couple %. I hope this isnt repeat of 2021 when SMC got and stayed very bearish in late March and market went up relentlessly till Jan 2.2022

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

Peter, Thank You for keeping us updated at this crucial time even though you’re on vacation. Does anyone know can the 57 trading day come in early by 1-2 trading days? I have a change of trend that comes in Friday early AM during Globex prior to markets opening. Happy Thanksgiving Everyone. Give Gratitude Daily~ You’ll be surprised how it changes your life. 🙏 ~Dorothy

JCtrader
JCtrader

Hi Peter, I just updated the app and while I was in settings, I was thinking it would be nice to have the option for text alerts for when you post video updates. Over the years I've missed intraday updates because I don't check my email during trading hours. Anyway, no fault to you just thought it would help a lot of us in that could be in the same boat. Thank you, and hope you have a fantastic time with your family!

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

Watch VIX pretty close to 20 + - at prior highs

StevenTexas
StevenTexas

So I counted onesies twosies on my $indu chart. 57 TRADING days is exactly on December 1st. Let's see how this works out. Oil very contango and massive bond inversions with MOVE index at an ATH. SUM TING WONG. Xi Xi Ping Pong looking to make iPhones MiPhone's. Dow is the recipient of cash that fears a global sovereign debt crisis and wants to dump the 60/40 template. "Blue Chip" stocks are going to be magnets. Massive bankruptcies of zombie companies who lived on low interest rates. 1.6 Trillion in corporate bonds come due for rolling June of 2023. Stock picking and getting our heads around a massive shift in the way capital tries to survive is what we are seeing. Peter's system is picking that up. Dow showing relative strength to Nasdaq. Generating CASH and being able to pay expenses like a real corporation (should) might come back into vogue. Commenters who seem vitriolic are just frustrated and understandably so! Chill and let Peter do his thing. I bet it will become much more clear and profitable very soon! Happy Thanksgiving, we still have a lot to be Thankful for! Being patient is the hardest part of trading and investing. Not to mention we are also navigating a global sovereign debt crisis.

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

Happy Thanksgiving Peter and Everyone ESZ22 hasn't taken out 11/15 high but ESH23 has in Globex holiday trading

kwmurphy2939
kwmurphy2939

Nice work on the 57 day cycle, whomever found it. Looks like Nov 30 or Dec 1 is the next iteration. Good chance is it a low from what I see, setting the stage for a final move up into mid December. Thanks for pointing that out, very helpful.

srblack1960144
srblack1960144

57 trading days from September 9th is November 30th. I believe that's also the day that Jerome Powell next opens his mouth, so it's a good candidate for a the market to turn and accelerate down.

dumbchristine3486
dumbchristine3486

kwmurphy2939 said:

Nice work on the 57 day cycle, whomever found it. Looks like Nov 30 or Dec 1 is the next iteration. Good chance is it a low from what I see, setting the stage for a final move up into mid December. Thanks for pointing that out, very helpful.

how do you pull this crap out of your ass?

tacepav7093533
tacepav7093533

Thanks a lot Peter, hope you had a great time. Have to say, reading the rude replies to some of the comments was on these videos upsets me. I thought there's really no reason to allow few people to bring everything down, maybe consider moderation or rules in the comments? some of them are really awful, others plain uneccessary only serve to hurt others 🤣

might be time to set some ground rules that's all.

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