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bobby4649
Peter, I have a hypothesis why roughly 20% of predictions are invalidated. Every cycle has two mid channel pauses as Hurst called them, one on the way up and one on the way down. They occur at roughly 20% of the way into a cycle (ie week 8 in a 40 week cycle) and then on the way down to the trough at week 32. They are caused by two cycles lower, ie the 80 day causes the mid channel pause in the 40 week cycle. Price usually crosses the offsets (40 day FLDs) at these mid channel pauses generating the lower target first and the second time a higher target but because of where they are in the overall cycle the projections fail. If you are working with a nominal 40 week, you should be suspicious of the cycle projections around these periods. In one full 40 week cycle you should get 8 projections of which two are predicted to fail based on your stats. I think I have a good idea on which two will fail. Contact me direct if you want to discuss more.
daniel039209
bobby4649 said:
Peter, I have a hypothesis why roughly 20% of predictions are invalidated. Every cycle has two mid channel pauses as Hurst called them, one on the way up and one on the way down. They occur at roughly 20% of the way into a cycle (ie week 8 in a 40 week cycle) and then on the way down to the trough at week 32. They are caused by two cycles lower, ie the 80 day causes the mid channel pause in the 40 week cycle. Price usually crosses the offsets (40 day FLDs) at these mid channel pauses generating the lower target first and the second time a higher target but because of where they are in the overall cycle the projections fail. If you are working with a nominal 40 week, you should be suspicious of the cycle projections around these periods. In one full 40 week cycle you should get 8 projections of which two are predicted to fail based on your stats. I think I have a good idea on which two will fail. Contact me direct if you want to discuss more.
Which 2 ? Come on !
bobby4649
daniel039209 said:
bobby4649 said:
Peter, I have a hypothesis why roughly 20% of predictions are invalidated. Every cycle has two mid channel pauses as Hurst called them, one on the way up and one on the way down. They occur at roughly 20% of the way into a cycle (ie week 8 in a 40 week cycle) and then on the way down to the trough at week 32. They are caused by two cycles lower, ie the 80 day causes the mid channel pause in the 40 week cycle. Price usually crosses the offsets (40 day FLDs) at these mid channel pauses generating the lower target first and the second time a higher target but because of where they are in the overall cycle the projections fail. If you are working with a nominal 40 week, you should be suspicious of the cycle projections around these periods. In one full 40 week cycle you should get 8 projections of which two are predicted to fail based on your stats. I think I have a good idea on which two will fail. Contact me direct if you want to discuss more.
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Peter, I have a hypothesis why roughly 20% of predictions are invalidated. Every cycle has two mid channel pauses as Hurst called them, one on the way up and one on the way down. They occur at roughly 20% of the way into a cycle (ie week 8 in a 40 week cycle) and then on the way down to the trough at week 32. They are caused by two cycles lower, ie the 80 day causes the mid channel pause in the 40 week cycle. Price usually crosses the offsets (40 day FLDs) at these mid channel pauses generating the lower target first and the second time a higher target but because of where they are in the overall cycle the projections fail. If you are working with a nominal 40 week, you should be suspicious of the cycle projections around these periods. In one full 40 week cycle you should get 8 projections of which two are predicted to fail based on your stats. I think I have a good idea on which two will fail. Contact me direct if you want to discuss more.
Which 2 ? Come on !
From the trough the 2nd and 7th
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