Peter Eliades StockMarket Cycles Update 7-30-20

07/30/2020


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jshemanski49196
jshemanski49196

Interesting update once again, Peter!

m1.c70
m1.c70

Jaw dropping work Peter. The statistical addition has added a whole level of predictive power.

matiasjarnal326
matiasjarnal326

Fantastic analysis as always, Peter!

Ali
Ali

Been using the stats for past 10 days. Very helpful! This Software competes with the Fed at throwing Free money at you ! Love it

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

What kind of % drawdown on a 50-60 ATR can we expect in your mind? Just unreal that it’s 4000 not even a summer election drop like usual on 4yr election cycle? What!!!

- Ut A Chao -
- Ut A Chao -

I don't think it is even necessary to add a 'fudge factor' to the @ES 96.8/110.6 projection.

Since this is a long projection, the confirmed upside projection percentage was and remained 85.71%.

When you increased the ATR-fudge factor, only the downside percentages, and thus, overall percentages went up. Except for the big miss on trade #13, all the projections were on the short side.

I would assume it would make most sense to only consider the statistics for the respective trade direction when evaluating a projection.

Thank you, these statistics are tremendously useful.

Last updated

- Ut A Chao -
- Ut A Chao -

Just a follow-up to your AAII discussion.

Here is a link to a chart that shows the AAII Bulls - AAII Bears superimposed on the SPX: http://schrts.co/AGbxrnGI

The next one shows the same information but as a 10-wk MA: http://schrts.co/QmuSMzxG

Finally, the period from 2009: http://schrts.co/gEJyiBkv

These are all StockCharts 'Permanent Links', no embedded code or anything malicious.

Last updated

Steffen Scheuermann
Steffen Scheuermann

- Ut A Chao - said:

I don't think it is even necessary to add a 'fudge factor' to the @ES 96.8/110.6 projection.

Since this is a long projection, the confirmed upside projection percentage was and remained 85.71%.

When you increased the ATR-fudge factor, only the downside percentages, and thus, overall percentages went up. Except for the big miss on trade #13, all the projections were on the short side.

I would assume it would make most sense to only consider the statistics for the respective trade direction when evaluating a projection.

Thank you, these statistics are tremendously useful.

Good observation. I agree!

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