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dicksmith5045072
This is not in the true technical concept of your analysis but just an interesting side line fascinating potential. I do agree with your assessment that something is going to happen and probably imminently. I have forgotten where I got this little article from but perhaps, it may have been from you, a decade ago. Anyway the next full lunar eclipse is on Sept.7 and a partial solar eclipse occurs on Sept. 21. Obviously these forecasts are way out there but fun to watch.
Puetz Crash Window
12
2-27-2016
Steve Puetz (mathematician, statistician, and financial expert *1) has found that many of the stock market crashes have occurred in proximity of a lunar eclipse close to a solar eclipse.
“He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000.” *2
“. . .Puetz used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower –waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace.” *2
Let me frame it like this. First you have to have a fragile market. Yes a bear market would qualify, such as we are in now. In the right market state, Puetz crash windows are more likely to occur.
It just so happens we have a solar eclipse on March 8-9 2016 (seen from Asia, Australia and Alaska). 2 weeks later, a partial lunar eclipse on March 23 2016 (seen from Asia, Australia and the Americas).
Now you all know that my Elliott Wave count is that we are finishing Wave 2 higher after Wave 1 Dec 2015-mid Feb 2016. Wave 3 lower should be quite strong. So we have a bear market, a Puetz crash window and a count of us heading into Wave 3 lower. These are the situations that a Puetz crash window pans out.
khanatop5485
Look at your 2000 chart again, as per your charts, 2–5 months away from the top?
daniel039209
dicksmith5045072 said:
Now you all know that my Elliott Wave count is that we are finishing Wave 2 higher after Wave 1 Dec 2015-mid Feb 2016. Wave 3 lower should be quite strong. So we have a bear market, a Puetz crash window and a count of us heading into Wave 3 lower. These are the situations that a Puetz crash window pans out.
If you look back, the SPX made double bottom lows on Jan 20th and Feb 11th of 2016. The selloff from nov 2015 was from 2100 to 1800. Not clear if that is a "bear market". And those lows of Feb 2016, WERE THE LOWS. It was the wrong time to be bearish if you care about making money versus trying to be right. I dont know if you are quoting and old SMC or Elliot Wave letter or just someone else. Betting on a crash has been expensive lesson in hubris. but maybe today is the crash. But at new all time highs, seems like low probability
Last updated
rafe.thrasher5229
Dick Smith,
Excellent comment. I used your quote in my latest substack post.
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This is not in the true technical concept of your analysis but just an interesting side line fascinating potential. I do agree with your assessment that something is going to happen and probably imminently. I have forgotten where I got this little article from but perhaps, it may have been from you, a decade ago. Anyway the next full lunar eclipse is on Sept.7 and a partial solar eclipse occurs on Sept. 21. Obviously these forecasts are way out there but fun to watch. Puetz Crash Window
12
2-27-2016
Steve Puetz (mathematician, statistician, and financial expert *1) has found that many of the stock market crashes have occurred in proximity of a lunar eclipse close to a solar eclipse.
“He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000.” *2
“. . .Puetz used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower –waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace.” *2
Let me frame it like this. First you have to have a fragile market. Yes a bear market would qualify, such as we are in now. In the right market state, Puetz crash windows are more likely to occur.
It just so happens we have a solar eclipse on March 8-9 2016 (seen from Asia, Australia and Alaska). 2 weeks later, a partial lunar eclipse on March 23 2016 (seen from Asia, Australia and the Americas).
Now you all know that my Elliott Wave count is that we are finishing Wave 2 higher after Wave 1 Dec 2015-mid Feb 2016. Wave 3 lower should be quite strong. So we have a bear market, a Puetz crash window and a count of us heading into Wave 3 lower. These are the situations that a Puetz crash window pans out.
Look at your 2000 chart again, as per your charts, 2–5 months away from the top?
If you look back, the SPX made double bottom lows on Jan 20th and Feb 11th of 2016. The selloff from nov 2015 was from 2100 to 1800. Not clear if that is a "bear market". And those lows of Feb 2016, WERE THE LOWS. It was the wrong time to be bearish if you care about making money versus trying to be right. I dont know if you are quoting and old SMC or Elliot Wave letter or just someone else. Betting on a crash has been expensive lesson in hubris. but maybe today is the crash. But at new all time highs, seems like low probability
Last updated
Dick Smith,
Excellent comment. I used your quote in my latest substack post.
https://open.substack.com/pub/throughthealembic/p/the-coming-crash-true-time-synchronicity?utm_source=app-post-stats-page&r=brzbv&utm_medium=ios
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