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jeanrobert15225
From March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 has appreciated significantly. This can be easily calculated by comparing its value on Friday, September 19, 2025—around 6,666—with its level of 666 on March 9, 2009. That’s a tenfold increase. If you had simply held your assets since that time without making any changes, they would have grown by 10×.
Using an Excel sheet to calculate the compound annual growth rate (CAGR), we take the formula: 10^(1/16.47) ≈ 1.15004929, which translates to approximately 15% per annum, compounded since the bottom of the Great Recession. This 16-year stretch is truly one of the most remarkable sequences in market history.
Why 16.47 years? Because the low occurred around March 9, 2009, and as of September 19, 2025, 16.47 years have passed.
In a similar vein, if we look back to September 3, 1929—the peak of the roaring twenties bull market—the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at 381.17. Today, it’s around 46,315.27, which means it has multiplied by 121.508× since then.
Using Excel again, we calculate the CAGR over 96 years:
121.508^(1/96) ≈ 1.051270, or about 5.127% per annum, compounded. That’s a solid long-term average return from financial institutions.
Now, considering inflation over that same period—about 3% annually, according to the Bank of Canada
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/related/inflation-calculator/
—the real rate of return is approximately 2.127%, which includes productivity gains, dividends, and fees charged by financial institutions to manage your assets.
I remember clearly that around October 9, 2002, at the bottom of the market, the rate of return on assets since 1929 was actually negative. And I also recall that in 2000, John Templeton—one of the most respected wealth managers of his time—remarked that bonds yielding a real rate of 4% (after inflation) were a bargain. He had never seen such an opportunity and strongly recommended investing in them securely. I must admit, I didn’t follow his advice.
Please excuse any imperfections in this message. I’m a French Canadian, and the structure of my thoughts may differ from what a native English speaker might use in a formal dissertation.
jeanrobert15225
I’m 71 years old and have been investing in the stock market since 1982. I’ve known and followed Peter since 1998, when he published a piece titled The Sign of the Bear in Barron's. I’ve always appreciated his insights—even if he’s not always right. What stands out to me is his genuine passion. I’m consistently amazed by his energy and intensity.
Peter knows the history of the stock market like no one else. That’s why I feel saddened when people attack him. With all his knowledge and his relentless drive to give his best, I believe he offers something truly valuable—not just through his projections, but through his interpretation of them. Regardless of whether you agree with his conclusions, it’s clear that he’s sincerely sharing what he believes in.
Simply put, he gives the best of himself. Anyone who listens can appreciate his remarkable ability to produce something absolutely fascinating. Will he always be right? No. But it’s never for lack of effort.
So to the harsh critics: please recognize what he brings to the table and take the best from it.
Are we at the top of the market? Maybe. Honestly, I think we are—now.
jeanrobert15225
Whether one is religious or not, the numbers 666 or 6666 are not the sign of the bear—but rather, the sign of the Beast. For those who follow lunar cycles, January 11, 1973 was one day before the first quarter of the moon, following a solar eclipse on January 4, 1973, and just days before a lunar eclipse on January 18, 1973. That period marked a market top on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which lasted until the bottom in August 1982.
This was also approximately a double top, dating back to February 1966. As Peter might say, it was about 16.5 years from top to bottom—between February 1966 and August 1982—and we now see a similar span from March 2009 to September 2025: again, roughly 16.5 years.
Looking at current celestial events, there was a lunar eclipse on September 7, 2025, and a solar eclipse is set to occur on September 21, 2025—both within two weeks of each other. For those who follow these patterns, one day before the first quarter of the moon following the September 21 solar eclipse falls on September 28, 2025. This date also precedes a potential government shutdown in the United States, according to recent news reports.
It comes just after Rosh Hashana, which marks the beginning of the Hebrew year 5786 and falls on September 23 and 24, 2025. This period coincides with the first crescent of the new moon—aligned with the solar eclipse mentioned earlier on September 21. It might mean nothing to you, but take care nonetheless—this is a period when markets often stumble, just before a bottom of some kind tends to form between October 6 and 13. Which is not to say things are clear later—such as at the end of October or the beginning of November. For example, November 6, 1929 marked a temporary bottom following a 50% decline from the peak on September 3, 1929, and a 25% drop over just two days on October 28 and 29, 1929. here was a solar eclipse on November 1, 1929, followed by a lunar eclipse on November 17, 1929—just to mix everyone up.
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From March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 has appreciated significantly. This can be easily calculated by comparing its value on Friday, September 19, 2025—around 6,666—with its level of 666 on March 9, 2009. That’s a tenfold increase. If you had simply held your assets since that time without making any changes, they would have grown by 10×.
Using an Excel sheet to calculate the compound annual growth rate (CAGR), we take the formula: 10^(1/16.47) ≈ 1.15004929, which translates to approximately 15% per annum, compounded since the bottom of the Great Recession. This 16-year stretch is truly one of the most remarkable sequences in market history.
Why 16.47 years? Because the low occurred around March 9, 2009, and as of September 19, 2025, 16.47 years have passed.
In a similar vein, if we look back to September 3, 1929—the peak of the roaring twenties bull market—the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at 381.17. Today, it’s around 46,315.27, which means it has multiplied by 121.508× since then.
Using Excel again, we calculate the CAGR over 96 years: 121.508^(1/96) ≈ 1.051270, or about 5.127% per annum, compounded. That’s a solid long-term average return from financial institutions.
Now, considering inflation over that same period—about 3% annually, according to the Bank of Canada https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/related/inflation-calculator/ —the real rate of return is approximately 2.127%, which includes productivity gains, dividends, and fees charged by financial institutions to manage your assets.
I remember clearly that around October 9, 2002, at the bottom of the market, the rate of return on assets since 1929 was actually negative. And I also recall that in 2000, John Templeton—one of the most respected wealth managers of his time—remarked that bonds yielding a real rate of 4% (after inflation) were a bargain. He had never seen such an opportunity and strongly recommended investing in them securely. I must admit, I didn’t follow his advice. Please excuse any imperfections in this message. I’m a French Canadian, and the structure of my thoughts may differ from what a native English speaker might use in a formal dissertation.
I’m 71 years old and have been investing in the stock market since 1982. I’ve known and followed Peter since 1998, when he published a piece titled The Sign of the Bear in Barron's. I’ve always appreciated his insights—even if he’s not always right. What stands out to me is his genuine passion. I’m consistently amazed by his energy and intensity.
Peter knows the history of the stock market like no one else. That’s why I feel saddened when people attack him. With all his knowledge and his relentless drive to give his best, I believe he offers something truly valuable—not just through his projections, but through his interpretation of them. Regardless of whether you agree with his conclusions, it’s clear that he’s sincerely sharing what he believes in.
Simply put, he gives the best of himself. Anyone who listens can appreciate his remarkable ability to produce something absolutely fascinating. Will he always be right? No. But it’s never for lack of effort.
So to the harsh critics: please recognize what he brings to the table and take the best from it.
Are we at the top of the market? Maybe. Honestly, I think we are—now.
Whether one is religious or not, the numbers 666 or 6666 are not the sign of the bear—but rather, the sign of the Beast. For those who follow lunar cycles, January 11, 1973 was one day before the first quarter of the moon, following a solar eclipse on January 4, 1973, and just days before a lunar eclipse on January 18, 1973. That period marked a market top on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which lasted until the bottom in August 1982.
This was also approximately a double top, dating back to February 1966. As Peter might say, it was about 16.5 years from top to bottom—between February 1966 and August 1982—and we now see a similar span from March 2009 to September 2025: again, roughly 16.5 years.
Looking at current celestial events, there was a lunar eclipse on September 7, 2025, and a solar eclipse is set to occur on September 21, 2025—both within two weeks of each other. For those who follow these patterns, one day before the first quarter of the moon following the September 21 solar eclipse falls on September 28, 2025. This date also precedes a potential government shutdown in the United States, according to recent news reports.
It comes just after Rosh Hashana, which marks the beginning of the Hebrew year 5786 and falls on September 23 and 24, 2025. This period coincides with the first crescent of the new moon—aligned with the solar eclipse mentioned earlier on September 21. It might mean nothing to you, but take care nonetheless—this is a period when markets often stumble, just before a bottom of some kind tends to form between October 6 and 13. Which is not to say things are clear later—such as at the end of October or the beginning of November. For example, November 6, 1929 marked a temporary bottom following a 50% decline from the peak on September 3, 1929, and a 25% drop over just two days on October 28 and 29, 1929. here was a solar eclipse on November 1, 1929, followed by a lunar eclipse on November 17, 1929—just to mix everyone up.
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