SMC Update 1-24-23

Tue, 01/24/2023 Tuesday, 01/24/2023 5:55 PM PST


Comments (13)
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jshemanski49196
jshemanski49196

Thanks for the update, interesting.

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

Peter Feel Better🙏 ~Dorothy

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

Peter Feel Better🙏 ~Dorothy

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

I would guess the Global Dow Bullish chart reflects more about a weak $US than a Bullish US market. ~ Dorothy

DAV15J
DAV15J

Anyone who invests using TA solely is on a hiding to nothing. Need to understand macro eg corporate profits, PMIs and so on. For me, that is the insurmountable problem here.

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

DAV15J said:

Anyone who invests using TA solely is on a hiding to nothing. Need to understand macro eg corporate profits, PMIs and so on. For me, that is the insurmountable problem here.

⚠️According to John Graham, a professor of finance at Duke University in North Carolina, 20% of firms are misrepresenting their economic performance at any given time.⚠️

Enron comes to mind. I had downside targets on Enron MONTHS BEFORE the Fraud news came out. I laughed as Wall St analysts on CNBC loved (ENE). Brokerage firms who have banking relationships with companies are never going to put a Sell rating on a stock.

Another disaster comes to mind Chiquita bananas Stock was gapping down day after day on Huge Volume. No news out as to why. A EXPERIENCED “technician” would say I don’t know why what the news is but someone does and It is not GOOD News! One morning delayed open and finally the News hit the tape that Chiquita had planted ALL their bananas in China 🇨🇳 and FDA would not allow them to be imported into USA 🇺🇸! The lesson here for the unseasoned investors is: PEOPLE LIE (Accountants manipulate numbers) STOCK CHARTS DON’T LIE! Volume precedes price action. If a stock is going up on big volume with no News you know the stock is being accumulated by insiders who know the good news. If a stock is going down on BIG VOLUME insiders who know bad new are selling!
PERIOD! ~ Dorothy

DAV15J
DAV15J

dcarter8883312 said:

DAV15J said:

Anyone who invests using TA solely is on a hiding to nothing. Need to understand macro eg corporate profits, PMIs and so on. For me, that is the insurmountable problem here.

⚠️According to John Graham, a professor of finance at Duke University in North Carolina, 20% of firms are misrepresenting their economic performance at any given time.⚠️

Enron comes to mind. I had downside targets on Enron MONTHS BEFORE the Fraud news came out. I laughed as Wall St analysts on CNBC loved (ENE). Brokerage firms who have banking relationships with companies are never going to put a Sell rating on a stock.

Another disaster comes to mind Chiquita bananas Stock was gapping down day after day on Huge Volume. No news out as to why. A EXPERIENCED “technician” would say I don’t know why what the news is but someone does and It is not GOOD News! One morning delayed open and finally the News hit the tape that Chiquita had planted ALL their bananas in China 🇨🇳 and FDA would not allow them to be imported into USA 🇺🇸! The lesson here for the unseasoned investors is: PEOPLE LIE (Accountants manipulate numbers) STOCK CHARTS DON’T LIE! Volume precedes price action. If a stock is going up on big volume with no News you know the stock is being accumulated by insiders who know the good news. If a stock is going down on BIG VOLUME insiders who know bad new are selling!
PERIOD! ~ Dorothy

I reiterate: Anyone who invests using TA solely is on a hiding to nothing. To do so is running with one eye closed and the other half closed.

daniel039209
daniel039209

Okay, so a little down for a day or .2 then a rally to higher highs( than recent ) into Feb 7-10. That’s the most bullish update I have seen since last June’s low. Have expected imminent downturns from Oct low , this is a change in tone and direction

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

Peter, If you don’t feel like doing an interim update if there are new downside projections given please just post them. Get better— 🙏 ~Dorothy

max.ship3821
max.ship3821

In regards of the VIX, technically it could hover around the bottom range 16-17 for a while hitting the longterm trendline started in 2017. In the meantime we have the mother of all short squeeze bear market rallies ahead over the next 4-8 weeks hitting the DJI ATH and the SPX around 4.400-4.500 (confirmed projections) until the March FOMC meeting.

After this insanity no bear would be alive anymore. More data of the struggling real economy will be out by then showing the devastating central bank policies "mistakes" and sentiment is clear for the VIX spike and SPX dump.

Last updated

max.ship3821
max.ship3821

I bought a few Options March-June of a couple beaten down tech stocks (-80-85 %). Most of them are still hovering around the 10 EMA and have weekly divergence starting from June 2022. (ARKK SHOP NET AMD). In case we are breaking out, these stocks should be able to 40-80 % during a squeeze as a portfolio hedge after being just short positioned for a while.

If we close around the current level in the SPX we have a massive daily green hammer candle that just wicked and tested the 10 & 20 EMAs and is also once again above the bear market trendline.

Last updated

Guido van Schagen
Guido van Schagen

Peter, Isn't the 48,4 with the target at 4369 for the S&P500 that was confirmed november the 10th overdue after around 35 days?

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

Peter, I know you pay no attention to FOMC meetings as far as cycles go— but I’m curious if the continuum moving over to Wednesday Feb 1 allows room to drop sharply or move up? I’m thinking market strength will force Powell to hike 50 Bps and everyone is looking for 25 Bps. Thanks ~ Dorothy

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