SMC Update 1-25-23

01/25/2023


Comments (17)
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jjay636
jjay636

Thanks a lot for all the work you do and the passion that goes into your process. That said it seems you are fighting your own system for the past several months. I think the major peak in the dollar back in October should have been a warning shot that some type of pause in this bear market is in order if not the end of this bear run altogether. From what i can see on most major indecies there are at least 2 to 3 upside projections vs 1(longer) term bearish projection and primarily just in NDX and IWM. Why fight it? Even if it is not the end of the bear market your near term to intermediate projections are calling for at least 15-20% rally which would still not invalidate those NDX and IWM projections that could still come later in the year. Now with dollar crossing another important level to the downside - does not that give even more credibility to your intermediate upside projections. I think your price projections very often are impeccable, the timing is where the system could use an improvement.

jeanrobert15225
jeanrobert15225

jeanrobert15225 said:

jjay636 said:

Thanks a lot for all the work you do and the passion that goes into your process. That said it seems you are fighting your own system for the past several months. I think the major peak in the dollar back in October should have been a warning shot that some type of pause in this bear market is in order if not the end of this bear run altogether. From what i can see on most major indecies there are at least 2 to 3 upside projections vs 1(longer) term bearish projection and primarily just in NDX and IWM. Why fight it? Even if it is not the end of the bear market your near term to intermediate projections are calling for at least 15-20% rally which would still not invalidate those NDX and IWM projections that could still come later in the year. Now with dollar crossing another important level to the downside - does not that give even more credibility to your intermediate upside projections. I think your price projections very often are impeccable, the timing is where the system could use an improvement.

jeanrobert15225 said:

jjay636 said:

Thanks a lot for all the work you do and the passion that goes into your process. That said it seems you are fighting your own system for the past several months. I think the major peak in the dollar back in October should have been a warning shot that some type of pause in this bear market is in order if not the end of this bear run altogether. From what i can see on most major indecies there are at least 2 to 3 upside projections vs 1(longer) term bearish projection and primarily just in NDX and IWM. Why fight it? Even if it is not the end of the bear market your near term to intermediate projections are calling for at least 15-20% rally which would still not invalidate those NDX and IWM projections that could still come later in the year. Now with dollar crossing another important level to the downside - does not that give even more credibility to your intermediate upside projections. I think your price projections very often are impeccable, the timing is where the system could use an improvement.

jeanrobert15225 said:

jjay636 said:

Thanks a lot for all the work you do and the passion that goes into your process. That said it seems you are fighting your own system for the past several months. I think the major peak in the dollar back in October should have been a warning shot that some type of pause in this bear market is in order if not the end of this bear run altogether. From what i can see on most major indecies there are at least 2 to 3 upside projections vs 1(longer) term bearish projection and primarily just in NDX and IWM. Why fight it? Even if it is not the end of the bear market your near term to intermediate projections are calling for at least 15-20% rally which would still not invalidate those NDX and IWM projections that could still come later in the year. Now with dollar crossing another important level to the downside - does not that give even more credibility to your intermediate upside projections. I think your price projections very often are impeccable, the timing is where the system could use an improvement.

jeanrobert15225 said:

jjay636 said:

Thanks a lot for all the work you do and the passion that goes into your process. That said it seems you are fighting your own system for the past several months. I think the major peak in the dollar back in October should have been a warning shot that some type of pause in this bear market is in order if not the end of this bear run altogether. From what i can see on most major indecies there are at least 2 to 3 upside projections vs 1(longer) term bearish projection and primarily just in NDX and IWM. Why fight it? Even if it is not the end of the bear market your near term to intermediate projections are calling for at least 15-20% rally which would still not invalidate those NDX and IWM projections that could still come later in the year. Now with dollar crossing another important level to the downside - does not that give even more credibility to your intermediate upside projections. I think your price projections very often are impeccable, the timing is where the system could use an improvement.

Yes it seems to me that we are in a new bull market and even if the ViX did not go up like usual , at the end of a bear market, there is three arguments for it. First we are not in usual markets like before but in managed markets with a lot of money coming from the federal reserve in plain sight or in a subdued manner by all sort of games so those who conveys the belt for them will have all the resources to bend the market whichever’s way they want and supposedly always to fool most of the investors and prognosticators. Second there is no way that the system which is a house of cards will crash because they know it that it is a house of cards and will do absolutely everything to counter it till the end and it has been a very long time , a lot more then I ever imagined. And till the USA has the reserve currency , they could do whatever they want till they have not the reserve currency anymore and I do not see it on the horizon. Third whenever Peter find a pattern, a new cycle based on the past, often it doesn’t not work in the future because of the first two reasons before, it doesn’t mean it will never work but boy, he have been hampered so many times. It doesn’t mean he is not a good analyst . He is excellent, passionate and supremely entertaining and I like very much it’s videos.

ericoh792283
ericoh792283

Again Peter, you being perm Bear, not following your own program, putting your subscribers to get wacked.

jshemanski49196
jshemanski49196

jjay636 said:

Thanks a lot for all the work you do and the passion that goes into your process. That said it seems you are fighting your own system for the past several months. I think the major peak in the dollar back in October should have been a warning shot that some type of pause in this bear market is in order if not the end of this bear run altogether. From what i can see on most major indecies there are at least 2 to 3 upside projections vs 1(longer) term bearish projection and primarily just in NDX and IWM. Why fight it? Even if it is not the end of the bear market your near term to intermediate projections are calling for at least 15-20% rally which would still not invalidate those NDX and IWM projections that could still come later in the year. Now with dollar crossing another important level to the downside - does not that give even more credibility to your intermediate upside projections. I think your price projections very often are impeccable, the timing is where the system could use an improvement.

Very well said! Dollar going down would also be bullish for gold, just connecting the dots.

DAV15J
DAV15J

My 2 pennies: he spends far too much time looking at short and medium terms which, clearly, he gets wrong often. Stick with big picture / longer terms Peter.

jeanrobert15225
jeanrobert15225

DAV15J said:

My 2 pennies: he spends far too much time looking at short and medium terms which, clearly, he gets wrong often. Stick with big picture / longer terms Peter.

DAV15J said:

My 2 pennies: he spends far too much time looking at short and medium terms which, clearly, he gets wrong often. Stick with big picture / longer terms Peter.

I will tell you, it goes up whatever, because it is the end of the month. Window dressing or simply momentum decided by who you know, no way you will get a downturn. Plain and simple. Especially because it is impossible to go down now because a recession is coming and when they acknowledge a recession which they will do soon, it is always going up big time.

jeanrobert15225
jeanrobert15225

And a recession has started but we won’t know it beforehand so a big turn up soon

jeanrobert15225
jeanrobert15225

jeanrobert15225 said:

And a recession has started but we won’t know it beforehand so a big turn up soon

jeanrobert15225 said:

And a recession has started but we won’t know it beforehand so a big turn up soon

jeanrobert15225 said:

And a recession has started but we won’t know it beforehand so a big turn up soon

It has been seven times we have reach the speed resistance line, when it want too much to go over it , it will

jeanrobert15225
jeanrobert15225

A new bull market is in the wings now 1974, 1982, 2003, 2009 combined

Last updated

srblack1960144
srblack1960144

Peter, if you draw a trend line for SPX from the high in early January 2022, to the highest high in December, I think that yesterday SPX closed pretty much exactly on that line (I did this, but don't know how to use the TradeStation drawing tool to get it to exactly "snap" to those peaks, so I had to do it manually). Today the market is gapping over that line and a close above it will be the first time for that...and other indexes have already closed over that trend line. The Elliott wave patterns are pointing to this bear market rally (if that's what it is) going to at least 4300+, right in line with your software's projections. I've been doing very well just by using the software and other tools and have learned to tune out your very bearish bias. My guess is that the VIX tool isn't working for the time being since we're in a bullish cyclical period of the secular bear market. There will be more of these periods over the coming years of this secular bear market, much like the 1970s. (hmm, I wonder if you could go clear back to the 70's to look at the VIX behavior then?) I think the rally could end as soon as Feb 14th with a "bad" CPI report...but the "waves" look like they'll need more time than that to play out.

max.ship3821
max.ship3821

srblack1960144 said:

Peter, if you draw a trend line for SPX from the high in early January 2022, to the highest high in December, I think that yesterday SPX closed pretty much exactly on that line (I did this, but don't know how to use the TradeStation drawing tool to get it to exactly "snap" to those peaks, so I had to do it manually). Today the market is gapping over that line and a close above it will be the first time for that...and other indexes have already closed over that trend line. The Elliott wave patterns are pointing to this bear market rally (if that's what it is) going to at least 4300+, right in line with your software's projections. I've been doing very well just by using the software and other tools and have learned to tune out your very bearish bias. My guess is that the VIX tool isn't working for the time being since we're in a bullish cyclical period of the secular bear market. There will be more of these periods over the coming years of this secular bear market, much like the 1970s. (hmm, I wonder if you could go clear back to the 70's to look at the VIX behavior then?) I think the rally could end as soon as Feb 14th with a "bad" CPI report...but the "waves" look like they'll need more time than that to play out.

Thanks for your valuable input. In case it i just a bear market ralley, it could look similiar to the BMRs during the Dotcom crash. 15-20 % runs in the NDX within 6-8 weeks. I am looking at the mid March area in case we are breaking out here for a potential top around 13.5 - 14 k in the NDX & 4.400-4.500 SPX.

In regards of the VIX, there is a trendline starting in 2017, which we have tested in the passed multiple times, though we have not done so yet. In Dec19 & Jan 2020 we stayed there for a couple of weeks before we started the run up into the Covid crash.

Last updated

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

jjay636 said:

Thanks a lot for all the work you do and the passion that goes into your process. That said it seems you are fighting your own system for the past several months. I think the major peak in the dollar back in October should have been a warning shot that some type of pause in this bear market is in order if not the end of this bear run altogether. From what i can see on most major indecies there are at least 2 to 3 upside projections vs 1(longer) term bearish projection and primarily just in NDX and IWM. Why fight it? Even if it is not the end of the bear market your near term to intermediate projections are calling for at least 15-20% rally which would still not invalidate those NDX and IWM projections that could still come later in the year. Now with dollar crossing another important level to the downside - does not that give even more credibility to your intermediate upside projections. I think your price projections very often are impeccable, the timing is where the system could use an improvement.

JJay Actually with weak US $ PMs are leaving US markets buying EM. The emphasis for weak US$ is to buy GLD my favorite gold stock is NEM & if people are interested in cheap Silver/Copper stock look at GATO. It fell out of bed until $US peaked so now above 6 little resistance until around 10.

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

The DJIA benefits most from lower $US because of industrial stocks like CAT or BA doing business abroad. SPX more is heavily weighted by technology Which are lowering guidance. Analysts now see S&P 500 earnings dropping by 3% YOY, nearly double what was projected on Jan 1st down 1.6% per Refinitiv.

jshemanski49196
jshemanski49196

Hi Peter, Could you please provide the statistics for the 48.4/55.3 upside projection on the SPY for those of us that do not have the software??

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

Let me guess before I watch the video. The projections have green upside but PETER SAYS don't listen to them we are GOIIIINGGG DOWNNNN right? Or right? I mean you think by now...

max.ship3821
max.ship3821

Looking at the Web App, we could go up to around 13.8 k in the NDX without invalidating the long-term weekly down side one?

danizh53
danizh53

DAV15J said:

My 2 pennies: he spends far too much time looking at short and medium terms which, clearly, he gets wrong often. Stick with big picture / longer terms Peter.

Exactly!!

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