SMC Update 10-10-23

10/10/2023


Comments (5)
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jshemanski49196
jshemanski49196

It's hard to make a firm conclusion when you say that some ratio says that we are at a top while also touting higher projections. In my opinion, best to just trust the projections and not contradict them, Peter. I have also requested statistics on each projection given, since I don't have the software. This has seemingly fallen on deaf ears, and I'm not sure why?

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daniel039209
daniel039209

jshemanski49196 said:

It's hard to make a firm conclusion when you say that some ratio says that we are at a top while also touting higher projections. In my opinion, best to just trust the projections and not try to contradict them, Peter.

Agreed. The "ratio" has almost the exact same ability to forecast the drop in the market as the VIX did. Insignificant. It doesnt matter how much the NDX goes up or down, it is almost always a bearish view, even with higher projections. The 2 other occurrences used as "comparisons" just arent that strong. 2000 & 2022 dont compare. The only way we go down is if we are heading to a recession. Good thing he stopped using NDX/UTIL. As that has skyrocketed since he introduced this

daniel039209
daniel039209

Peter, with the Russel index up 5 days in a row, does that change your lower forecasts for just about everything? AAPL,NVDA, IWM, BTC, GLD?

daniel039209
daniel039209

no change in bearishness on NVDA , AAPL, BTC? NDX? amazing staunch stance throughout the entire move. if it takes the whole month of September to go down ~6.4%( NDX) Then, takes 3 days to rally 5.1%. Seems like the buying pulse is very strong. Today, day 58 might just as easily been a LOW,not a HIGH.. i guess we will see.

brian1469
brian1469

I'm still bearish but it is waning quick. Something changed this week

It feels like the market has found great relief in WW3. Like Covid it gives them the greenlight to pump and print as much as they like. Sell fear of war on the front end and comfort the masses with higher asset prices is the routine. I can see how this leads to a ridiculous rally just like the covid experiment.

In the end it doesn't matter because whoever wins WW3 will control the new system so they might as well print and pump into oblivion going through it.

I came into this week thinking we get a relief rally to get everybody on board for end of the year rally. Then it doesn't happen but this market just feels like Covid rally were they intentionally pumped to make the people feel better. I could see Biden wanting to hand out money to everybody again because of the war

If we can get up to the 12/13 given today on the SPX we can get the 24 and 48 higher.

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