Hi Peter,

I discovered something that you might find super fascinating and could explain why this market keeps going higher.

If you look at the longest projection of NYA (NYSE composite), it has a MUCH HIGHER projection at 18920-19467 (equivalent of 5000-5100 in SPX percentage wise from here). I would appreciate it if you address that in your next update.

Last updated 2 years ago

Thanks Peter, another great update. Other factors support your bearish outlook. VIX is low, the Shiller index is really high (only higher in the dot com era), and per TradeStation 47% of AAII investors are bullish, the highest since April. And yet the NYAD index broke to the upside today, perhaps many traders were buying the indices?

JHomann's comment reminds me that you place a lot of stock in the NY Composite index, but you haven't discussed it lately, so I second the motion for a review of that index.

Last updated 2 years ago

Peter,

Everything you have shared with us matters---the technicals and, most importantly, the projections. Fundamentals have ceased to matter for a long time (see Dr. John Hussman's latest post, "Wealth is in the Denominator." 10/15/21). All that's left is technicals and, most importantly, projections. For a long time now, Eliott Wave International (Robert Prechter) has been even more extremely bearish than you. By contrast, Elliot Wave Trader (Avi Gilbert), using the same system but with a different wave count, is projecting 5,000 on SPX by the end of the year (as is jhomann82221223 on this site). If we don't get the turn to the downside tomorrow, I'm thinking both Elliot Wavers (Prechter & Gilbert) and your projections will be in gear to the upside---perhaps to a blow-off top. Fundamentals be damned. It will be technical analysis of various sorts and your projection software pointing to the peak of Mt. Everest, which is where this market seems to want to go---if we don't get a move down tommorrow. It's one hell-of-a-way down from the peak of Mt. Everest. Oh, and out there in such rarified air, PLEASE let us know when in addtion to the charts and projections, you see the Eliades SIGN OF THE BEAR.

thanks Peter. I was wondering if it would make sense to also start looking at the VIX in terms of projections or technical analysis? I think the VIX is only correlated to S&P but didn't know if it would make any sense to analyze it.
I enjoyed reading the other comments. You have some very astute traders in the room here :-)

Good Morning Peter. Something interesting i found is a inverse correlation between closing price movement between now and 1931. 90 year cycle. current analysis shows a 96% correlation. i know. amazing.

which would mean a minor high is due in dec 13 2021 and major top in july 2022.

Meanwhile back at the ranch the QQQ up another 1.2%. From that low of 14367 = like you say you like to wait until a projection is hit and then go the other way. We should have went LONG at 14367 when the projection was hit. Water on a ducks back.. right?

XXSPOWER127 said:

Meanwhile back at the ranch the QQQ up another 1.2%. From that low of 14367 = like you say you like to wait until a projection is hit and then go the other way. We should have went LONG at 14367 when the projection was hit. Water on a ducks back.. right?

covered shorts and going long 16200 NDX. i hope we keep going to higher projections. missed the first 1800 points. thats alot to miss but im going in

VeeGann said:

Good Morning Peter. Something interesting i found is a inverse correlation between closing price movement between now and 1931. 90 year cycle. current analysis shows a 96% correlation. i know. amazing.

which would mean a minor high is due in dec 13 2021 and major top in july 2022.

Very interesting! Fibonacci sequences argue strongly for THE high to occur in 2021. Go back Fibonacci number of years starting with 21 and you get some of the most important turns in history. Minus 21=2000 Minus 34=1987 Minus 55=1966 Minus 89= 1932!!

Looks bearish so far. Huge Gap up that got sold. This is how tops are made. Day isn't over yet and market doesn't have to head south straight away. It's the best thing that can happen to bears. There is Option expiry on Friday.

Peter Eliades said:

VeeGann said:

Good Morning Peter. Something interesting i found is a inverse correlation between closing price movement between now and 1931. 90 year cycle. current analysis shows a 96% correlation. i know. amazing.

which would mean a minor high is due in dec 13 2021 and major top in july 2022.

Very interesting! Fibonacci sequences argue strongly for THE high to occur in 2021. Go back Fibonacci number of years starting with 21 and you get some of the most important turns in history. Minus 21=2000 Minus 34=1987 Minus 55=1966 Minus 89= 1932!!

That is absolutely amazing, Peter! I've been using Fib Time Zone recently and it never occurred to me to try fibonacci sequence in reverse order like you mentioned. Absolutely amazing!!! Wow! Very interesting! Perfect fit!

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