SMC Update 11-06-23

11/06/2023


Comments (21)
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brian1469
brian1469

Thanks Peter! The Old Yellen Pelvic Thrust triggered a lot of things in the past week

I guess we actually got one of those Thrusts again that has only happened 30 times ever but has happened 3 times this year I think Yellen and Blackrock's Aladdin know how to trigger them

I think we have some news that could crack this market

Heard through the grapevine

One of the largest commercial mortgage brokers in the country was raided over the weekend

Fraud was found in loans they'd sent to Fannie Mae. This is Multi Family Loans

If this market thinks we are in a 2008 GFC crisis it will crack. https://twitter.com/m3_melody/status/1721679502990778653

IS THIS #DTCC REASON TO HIKE THE MARGIN REQUIREMENTS ON MBS? https://twitter.com/DarioCpx/status/1721711703275294974

johngreen01554628
johngreen01554628

https://x.com/BergMilton/status/1721723445338103983?s=20

We therefore are of the view that a good low was generated on October 27. It could take us back towards the late July highs or perhaps towards the November 2021 to January 2022 all-time highs in NASDAQ and S&P 500. We do not at this time have sufficient reason to believe that a Bull market advance to significantly higher highs is probable. On an inflation-adjusted basis the S&P 500 is more than -21% below its all time high. Perhaps we will see new nominal new highs but not inflation-adjusted highs. 16 buy signals were triggered at the close on Friday, November 3, 2023. Based on these signals alone, probabilities are that the S&P 500 can gain upwards of +18%. The median gain within 1 year of the successful historical signals is 26%. Signal 1 of 16. 90% of the issues in the S&P 500 closed above their 10-day average. The S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index generated its greatest 5-day return in more than 90 days. The S&P 600 Small-Cap Index generated a 5-day gain of more than +7.00%. This combination of upside momentum has been seen 10 times in the past. In 8 of those 10 instances, the final corrective lows were behind us. In one instance, a final low occurred 13 days later and -2.65% below the prior low. In one instance, the market peaked 25 days later and +4.29% higher. It then went on to decline more than -24%. The median gain within 1 year of the signal has been +25.30%. The median gain before the S&P 500 next declined -15% has been +61.01%.

johngreen01554628
johngreen01554628

Is there reason why we don't look at Globex charts. Only when Bears are in pickles? No down means High projection confirmed. More Globex charts on the way.

daniel039209
daniel039209

johngreen0...thanks for sharing MB work. He's made and makes great calls on being Long and Short the market. Not theoretical.

johngreen01554628
johngreen01554628

daniel039209 said:

johngreen0...thanks for sharing MB work. He's made and makes great calls on being Long and Short the market. Not theoretical.

Here is the Most Important Comments ->> S&P 500 is more than -21% below its all time high.

Peter need to Understand Inflation will eat Bubble away. Like 1966/1982.

He should look how projection were during 1966/1982 market.

Crash is not going to work when Printers goes Brrrr. with 5% risk free returns will be S&P return over 14 years. Hope Peter will stick with Globex charts

daniel039209
daniel039209

johngreen01554628 said:

daniel039209 said:

johngreen0...thanks for sharing MB work. He's made and makes great calls on being Long and Short the market. Not theoretical.

Here is the Most Important Comments ->> S&P 500 is more than -21% below its all time high.

Peter need to Understand Inflation will eat Bubble away. Like 1966/1982.

He should look how projection were during 1966/1982 market.

Crash is not going to work when Printers goes Brrrr. with 5% risk free returns will be S&P return over 14 years. Hope Peter will stick with Globex charts

well, maybe afger 6-8% surge he is tuning down his NDX 6000 view. Especially with a new BULL projection up another 1000 NDX points! woo hoo!!!. i am buyer when we fill some of the gaps of this past week. WED/Thurs should provide good entry levels.

brian1469
brian1469

johngreen01554628 said:

daniel039209 said:

johngreen0...thanks for sharing MB work. He's made and makes great calls on being Long and Short the market. Not theoretical.

Here is the Most Important Comments ->> S&P 500 is more than -21% below its all time high.

Peter need to Understand Inflation will eat Bubble away. Like 1966/1982.

He should look how projection were during 1966/1982 market.

Crash is not going to work when Printers goes Brrrr. with 5% risk free returns will be S&P return over 14 years. Hope Peter will stick with Globex charts

Weren't 66 and 82 major lows after bear markets?

Seems like the wrong comparison after a 14 year bull market and QE.

Also I want to see some advancement pass last weeks manufactured rally by the Bank Of Japan and Yellen. Then we can start talking year end rally and go from there.

To me last week was an intervention let's see if any of these markets can stand on their own.

I will admit Yellen has already announced buybacks for Treasury's next year 2024 which should help with Liquidity. She has to get Joe re-elected so they can keep the scam going.

Next year will be Yellen vs Deflationary forces should be an exciting year

Last updated

johngreen01554628
johngreen01554628

brian1469 said:

johngreen01554628 said:

daniel039209 said:

johngreen0...thanks for sharing MB work. He's made and makes great calls on being Long and Short the market. Not theoretical.

Here is the Most Important Comments ->> S&P 500 is more than -21% below its all time high.

Peter need to Understand Inflation will eat Bubble away. Like 1966/1982.

He should look how projection were during 1966/1982 market.

Crash is not going to work when Printers goes Brrrr. with 5% risk free returns will be S&P return over 14 years. Hope Peter will stick with Globex charts

Weren't 66 and 82 major lows after bear markets?

Seems like the wrong comparison after a 14 year bull market and QE.

Wasn't there Inflation, Wars? You go and search history. Fed fixed rates before after the war. They also did price control Didn't the Inflation eat away the S&P purchasing power?

brian1469
brian1469

johngreen01554628 said:

brian1469 said:

johngreen01554628 said:

daniel039209 said:

johngreen0...thanks for sharing MB work. He's made and makes great calls on being Long and Short the market. Not theoretical.

Here is the Most Important Comments ->> S&P 500 is more than -21% below its all time high.

Peter need to Understand Inflation will eat Bubble away. Like 1966/1982.

He should look how projection were during 1966/1982 market.

Crash is not going to work when Printers goes Brrrr. with 5% risk free returns will be S&P return over 14 years. Hope Peter will stick with Globex charts

Weren't 66 and 82 major lows after bear markets?

Seems like the wrong comparison after a 14 year bull market and QE.

Wasn't there Inflation, Wars? You go and search history. Fed fixed rates before after the war. They also did price control Didn't the Inflation eat away the S&P purchasing power?

I believe our inflation was brought on directly from Policies of Covid passing out free money and lowering rates to 0 and supply chains causing 40-50% increases in prices in just a couple years. I believe this is more like the years we talked about of the late 1920's and the 1830's this summer and those ended in a deflationary bust as it is to hard to keep the ball rolling.

The government will do all they can not to let it happen so we will have weeks like last week were they intervene.

One leading indicator that looks deflationary is that trucking might be in the worst recession it has ever seen. It also explains what I am trying to say. The excesses of covid have led to the worst market ever for trucking. The big excesses lead to the very hard times. I don't think Yellen can fix this but they will try. https://twitter.com/FreightAlley/status/1720930437936128306

Here is another deflationary indicator that just posted. https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1721902550310682651 One of the comments in the thread. Can't even keep up with how quickly it's dropping.

Last updated

johngreen01554628
johngreen01554628

brian1469 said:

johngreen01554628 said:

brian1469 said:

johngreen01554628 said:

daniel039209 said:

johngreen0...thanks for sharing MB work. He's made and makes great calls on being Long and Short the market. Not theoretical.

Here is the Most Important Comments ->> S&P 500 is more than -21% below its all time high.

Peter need to Understand Inflation will eat Bubble away. Like 1966/1982.

He should look how projection were during 1966/1982 market.

Crash is not going to work when Printers goes Brrrr. with 5% risk free returns will be S&P return over 14 years. Hope Peter will stick with Globex charts

Weren't 66 and 82 major lows after bear markets?

Seems like the wrong comparison after a 14 year bull market and QE.

Wasn't there Inflation, Wars? You go and search history. Fed fixed rates before after the war. They also did price control Didn't the Inflation eat away the S&P purchasing power?

I believe our inflation was brought on directly from Policies of Covid passing out free money and lowering rates to 0 and supply chains causing 40-50% increases in prices in just a couple years. I believe this is more like the years we talked about of the late 1920's and the 1830's this summer and those ended in a deflationary bust as it is to hard to keep the ball rolling.

The government will do all they can not to let it happen so we will have weeks like last week were they intervene.

Money was backed by Gold. That all changed. Now money has no backing. They can print many as they like as it's not linked to anything. It's linked to Thin air. Inflate it away or die. This is how they paid off WW2 debt. Why can't they do it again?

https://capital.com/can-we-inflate-away-government-debt

brian1469
brian1469

johngreen01554628 said:

brian1469 said:

johngreen01554628 said:

brian1469 said:

johngreen01554628 said:

daniel039209 said:

johngreen0...thanks for sharing MB work. He's made and makes great calls on being Long and Short the market. Not theoretical.

Here is the Most Important Comments ->> S&P 500 is more than -21% below its all time high.

Peter need to Understand Inflation will eat Bubble away. Like 1966/1982.

He should look how projection were during 1966/1982 market.

Crash is not going to work when Printers goes Brrrr. with 5% risk free returns will be S&P return over 14 years. Hope Peter will stick with Globex charts

Weren't 66 and 82 major lows after bear markets?

Seems like the wrong comparison after a 14 year bull market and QE.

Wasn't there Inflation, Wars? You go and search history. Fed fixed rates before after the war. They also did price control Didn't the Inflation eat away the S&P purchasing power?

I believe our inflation was brought on directly from Policies of Covid passing out free money and lowering rates to 0 and supply chains causing 40-50% increases in prices in just a couple years. I believe this is more like the years we talked about of the late 1920's and the 1830's this summer and those ended in a deflationary bust as it is to hard to keep the ball rolling.

The government will do all they can not to let it happen so we will have weeks like last week were they intervene.

Money was backed by Gold. That all changed. Now money has no backing. They can print many as they like as it's not linked to anything. It's linked to Thin air. Inflate it away or die. This is how they paid off WW2 debt. Why can't they do it again?

https://capital.com/can-we-inflate-away-government-debt

Japan has printed a more money than anybody ever and this still happened so I don't think printing is a given for higher asset prices. Also their stock market is still trying to get back to 1990 levels

When Japan hit current US level demographics, real estate prices fell for 28 years straight.

In 1995, the median aged Japanese person was the same median age as the US today.

https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1689319925419270144

daniel039209
daniel039209

wait, are we going to 16100 NDX or stopping and turning down at NQ_z 15215? But as of 10;30 est we are 15313. Am i supposed to know the projection is going to work or the short term resistance is going to work? I guess if one says both, cannot lose!

johngreen01554628
johngreen01554628

daniel039209 said:

wait, are we going to 16100 NDX or stopping and turning down at NQ_z 15215? But as of 10;30 est we are 15313. Am i supposed to know the projection is going to work or the short term resistance is going to work? I guess if one says both, cannot lose!

Peter baby NDX/Dow is at 447. It's nothing like Y2K top or Nov 2021 top. It's like this for few months now.

Maybe it's going to hit .448 today and done?? 15350??

We will find out by days end.

Sure could do with another Globex update

daniel039209
daniel039209

johngreen01554628 said:

Peter baby NDX/Dow is at 447. It's nothing like Y2K top or Nov 2021 top. It's like this for few months now.

Maybe it's going to hit .448 today and done?? 15350??

We will find out by days end.

Sure could do with another Globex update

I'd like to see the manager please.

brian1469
brian1469

johngreen01554628 said:

daniel039209 said:

wait, are we going to 16100 NDX or stopping and turning down at NQ_z 15215? But as of 10;30 est we are 15313. Am i supposed to know the projection is going to work or the short term resistance is going to work? I guess if one says both, cannot lose!

Peter baby NDX/Dow is at 447. It's nothing like Y2K top or Nov 2021 top. It's like this for few months now.

Maybe it's going to hit .448 today and done?? 15350??

We will find out by days end.

Sure could do with another Globex update

We have immediate short term projections that we are in the window for that go up to 15519.

Why aren't you just long that instead of calling out Peter

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

brian1469 said:

Thanks Peter! The Old Yellen Pelvic Thrust triggered a lot of things in the past week

I guess we actually got one of those Thrusts again that has only happened 30 times ever but has happened 3 times this year I think Yellen and Blackrock's Aladdin know how to trigger them

I think we have some news that could crack this market

Heard through the grapevine

One of the largest commercial mortgage brokers in the country was raided over the weekend

Fraud was found in loans they'd sent to Fannie Mae. This is Multi Family Loans

If this market thinks we are in a 2008 GFC crisis it will crack. https://twitter.com/m3_melody/status/1721679502990778653

IS THIS #DTCC REASON TO HIKE THE MARGIN REQUIREMENTS ON MBS? https://twitter.com/DarioCpx/status/1721711703275294974

Stop reading twitter

HIGHER !!!

daniel039209
daniel039209

brian1469 said:

johngreen01554628 said:

daniel039209 said:

wait, are we going to 16100 NDX or stopping and turning down at NQ_z 15215? But as of 10;30 est we are 15313. Am i supposed to know the projection is going to work or the short term resistance is going to work? I guess if one says both, cannot lose!

Peter baby NDX/Dow is at 447. It's nothing like Y2K top or Nov 2021 top. It's like this for few months now.

Maybe it's going to hit .448 today and done?? 15350??

We will find out by days end.

Sure could do with another Globex update

We have immediate short term projections that we are in the window for that go up to 15519.

Why aren't you just long that instead of calling out Peter

Today is the day to short and i am. New higher projections after an 8++% gain, which was COMPLETELY missed by negative commentary and resistance that i waited until Thursday to short- thinking Peter was maybe right just 3.8% early. Well,they still went up. When he flashes 16100 on NDX projection, I'll take other side for now. How different is it when TSLA was 290 he had 350-399 projections. When NVDA was 406 he had 370--358 projection. So, today is good day to short day 7 of the move. NOT TO GET LONG AND have 16000 in sight. Maybe im wrong but im flexible. How are your shorts today?

johngreen01554628
johngreen01554628

XXSPOWER127 said:

brian1469 said:

Thanks Peter! The Old Yellen Pelvic Thrust triggered a lot of things in the past week

I guess we actually got one of those Thrusts again that has only happened 30 times ever but has happened 3 times this year I think Yellen and Blackrock's Aladdin know how to trigger them

I think we have some news that could crack this market

Heard through the grapevine

One of the largest commercial mortgage brokers in the country was raided over the weekend

Fraud was found in loans they'd sent to Fannie Mae. This is Multi Family Loans

If this market thinks we are in a 2008 GFC crisis it will crack. https://twitter.com/m3_melody/status/1721679502990778653

IS THIS #DTCC REASON TO HIKE THE MARGIN REQUIREMENTS ON MBS? https://twitter.com/DarioCpx/status/1721711703275294974

Stop reading twitter

HIGHER !!!

How much HIGHER??

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

BUYING AAPL HERE 182

En fuego

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

johngreen01554628 said:

XXSPOWER127 said:

brian1469 said:

Thanks Peter! The Old Yellen Pelvic Thrust triggered a lot of things in the past week

I guess we actually got one of those Thrusts again that has only happened 30 times ever but has happened 3 times this year I think Yellen and Blackrock's Aladdin know how to trigger them

I think we have some news that could crack this market

Heard through the grapevine

One of the largest commercial mortgage brokers in the country was raided over the weekend

Fraud was found in loans they'd sent to Fannie Mae. This is Multi Family Loans

If this market thinks we are in a 2008 GFC crisis it will crack. https://twitter.com/m3_melody/status/1721679502990778653

IS THIS #DTCC REASON TO HIKE THE MARGIN REQUIREMENTS ON MBS? https://twitter.com/DarioCpx/status/1721711703275294974

Stop reading twitter

HIGHER !!!

How much HIGHER??

johngreen01554628 said:

XXSPOWER127 said:

brian1469 said:

Thanks Peter! The Old Yellen Pelvic Thrust triggered a lot of things in the past week

I guess we actually got one of those Thrusts again that has only happened 30 times ever but has happened 3 times this year I think Yellen and Blackrock's Aladdin know how to trigger them

I think we have some news that could crack this market

Heard through the grapevine

One of the largest commercial mortgage brokers in the country was raided over the weekend

Fraud was found in loans they'd sent to Fannie Mae. This is Multi Family Loans

If this market thinks we are in a 2008 GFC crisis it will crack. https://twitter.com/m3_melody/status/1721679502990778653

IS THIS #DTCC REASON TO HIKE THE MARGIN REQUIREMENTS ON MBS? https://twitter.com/DarioCpx/status/1721711703275294974

Stop reading twitter

HIGHER !!!

How much HIGHER??

/Es has higher projections to 4500 +++

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