SMC Update 11-14-23

11/14/2023


Comments (8)
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brian1469
brian1469

Thanks Peter! Would like to hit that NQ target tomorrow

Here is Yellen applauding XI getting off the plane

Hopefully we can get pass this madness after tomorrow

https://twitter.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1724602043866706304

CS37
CS37

If I understand what your NDX-to-DJIA ratio is meant to show, you're saying that the risk-to-reward characteristics of the overall market is not attractive, at this time. In other words, the potential upside doesn't justify the potential downside. However, your focus on the actual numeric value of the NDX-to-DJIA ratio of 0.45, and using it as a form of market timing tool may be overstating its usefulness. I think if you did the same ratio analysis on, say, S&P500-to-DJIA, or even DJIA-to-DJUA, you might find that the message is the same -- unattractive risk-to-reward characteristics -- but the actual numeric value of these ratios is NOT instructive, as a timing tool. My main point here is that you could be right that there is major downside ahead for NDX-to-DJIA, but that there's nothing special about the actual numeric value, in terms of timing. This ratio can go much higher than 0.45, and then the overall market could drop significantly from a much higher point. The cycle projections should be the primary guide for overall market forecasting, because of its history of success, validated through the stats that you showed in this video. The ratio approach right now has a much smaller sample size, and the focus on the actual numeric value as a timing tool is questionable, in my opinion.

jjay636
jjay636

Unreal that you are talking about probabilities now that target is almost reached. How about skipping ratio talk and only concentrating on your model and going through all projections and probabilities of reaching them on the daily basis instead. Market does not need to go down for this ratio to go down - utilities just need to outperform nasdaq(very easy to do with rates moving lower) and market can still go higher and reach all your upside projections and the new ones that will be given shortly to even higher levels. Very disappointing, indeed!

daniel039209
daniel039209

Takeaways from a video that doesn’t seem to care too much about missing an 1840 point NDX rally and a ? 11% SPX gain in 11 days. And the fact that UPSIDE projections over 3 yr period are 83% accurate- doesn’t that tell you something? As in direction of stock market? Unapologetic how bearish and incorrect the last 13 months have been. You keep saying “‘we might go higher BUT we are probably stopping here, then here then here”. What would you do if you actually had dollars at risk ? Buy puts every other day ? Hmmmm

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

Approaching SPX Target 4542.65. Next Turn Date Nov 17th with November 20th escalation of trend I believe will be to downside. ~Dorothy

brian1469
brian1469

Looking for NQ 16057 the 12/13 daily and 16065 the 290/330 65 minute lower end of their projections to finally reach as a place for a pullback.

Also a good trendline at 16150 that could be a good area

Think we can get their on a pop from PPI and retail sales would like to see a fast move up and back down if we are going to actually reverse

Edit: So far so good ended up getting a short on the NQ at 16007 didn't quite get to the target. We are getting lower projections that should start a small pull back today

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johngreen01554628
johngreen01554628

daniel039209 said:

Takeaways from a video that doesn’t seem to care too much about missing an 1840 point NDX rally and a ? 11% SPX gain in 11 days. And the fact that UPSIDE projections over 3 yr period are 83% accurate- doesn’t that tell you something? As in direction of stock market? Unapologetic how bearish and incorrect the last 13 months have been. You keep saying “‘we might go higher BUT we are probably stopping here, then here then here”. What would you do if you actually had dollars at risk ? Buy puts every other day ? Hmmmm

Peter only looks at Globex 30/65 min, once his ass is on fire, will go back to his bad habit once market head south. Back to 4 years projections.

NDX/DOW, Spread sheet has up to 5.44%, That would kill most bears. Not helpful, the Globex 30 Minutes is. Should have done it for all 3 indexes. Should do that at least 3-4 time in a week.

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daniel039209
daniel039209

johngreen01554628 said:

daniel039209 said:

T NDX/DOW, Spread sheet has up to 5.44%, That would kill most bears. Not helpful, the Globex 30 Minutes is. Should have done it for all 3 indexes. Should do that at least 3-4 time in a week.

next 2 days we will get a MINI pullback very shallow. the market went up on huge qqq and spy volume. doesnt just erase, people are chasing now

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