A couple of questions(not criticisms); are you in a short position as you had shared from what was supposed to be too in July ‘21? Do you believe in your system to have held? Why do you call Sep “a top” or Nov “a top” when prices are higher? that’s not a top. Do you even look at individual stocks? You make it sound like “ only a few more percent up” well , that’s the index , the individual stocks are up 10-20-50-70-100% while the index trudges along each day/week/I think 17 out of last 19 months. Is this the 1st time the Hussmann valuation chart has been shown? Seems like it’s not an UNknown. People know some stocks are extended but how do you believe you can call the direction on 500 stocks or 100 stocks? Once every 20-25 years someone says “top” and it’s close. Rest of the time ,bullish analysts crush the 10-20 year sell offs . Tough way to make it, fighting every buyer in the world.

Great update Peter, thank you. I haven't followed Hussman but note that his four funds have done poorly, is that concerning for a market analyst whose insights we should embrace? I'm playing devil's advocate here, I also believe the market is overvalued but try to avoid confirmation bias. One metric, the Shiller index, has been ~40 lately but it reached 44 in the dot-com era. Today the economy is much bigger and more investors are engaged so maybe we should expect Shiller to hit 50? 60? When I look back at the cycle projections for SPY just prior to the covid crash I don't see any lower projections, just the major indices nosing over for a deep dive, but I may have missed something there. This seems like a treacherous market to short because the "top" is so elusive. Better to sell high and stand aside, and load up in the bargain basement next month or next year, or whenever the big reset occurs?

Orange juice is under rated, I mean it's the best drink in the world..... #lightcommentneeded

Price met resistance at the top of the parallel channel for this SP500 log chart. The main ones to focus on are the parallel channels drawn sloping downwards using the 2019 and 2020 lows. Link :- https://invst.ly/wmwez

Last updated 2 years ago

i guess we will see, if this is the top of the century. i would want to be more short than i am presently. first we have to break an 8 day moving average, then the 20 day ma. then you need the 50 dma to fail and actually have the moving averages slope DOWNward. steady up since april 2020. then i will believe in short thesis

Fair value for the S&P is $220 x 22 = 4840. Until I see that, I believe dip buyers will step in.

Peter, you have to love this. The chat thread on your sight is beginning to imply a massive top. Nice update, thanks for the steady work.

I would appreciate if you could review the chart of "NEO" please.

spytrader24 said:

Orange juice is under rated, I mean it's the best drink in the world..... #lightcommentneeded

I love orange juice! When our kids were young I called it liquid sunshine...and it really is.