SMC Update 12-1-22

12/01/2022


Comments (23)
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Peter Eliades
Peter Eliades

This is obviously a very long video. I tried to edit it as I always do, but it would take too long to edit it in my usual fashion and so there are gaps which I apologize for that are not in my usually tightly edited videos. I apologize for those gaps...

daniel039209
daniel039209

Peter, you are unmatched in your work ethic and tenacity. Much appreciated. I see the time/length. Will get up early in morning with pot of coffee for this one!

markle.david3385
markle.david3385

Stick to your methods. Be true to you.

Tima
Tima

Thank you Peter so much for the update. People get emotional and you are staying strong behind your own work, it what counts the most.

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

Peter EXCELLENT Update. I’m no Peter Eliades even though I’ve been tracking markets since 1974. Every expert in cycles or technical analysis has their wheelhouse but will augment other disciplines to zoom out or in at important periods as we are now. Peter’s work is far better than Elliott Wave and many I’ve learned from over the years. I have my work which is a compilation of many masters works I’ve known sprinkled with my own findings & intuition. Peter isn’t telling us when to place trades that’s our decision. My advice is use Peter’s excellent work along with other disciplines you know in deciding when to place a trade long or short instead of blaming him for your decision to NOT go long in a bear market rally. Exciting Times! ~ Dorothy

brian.charles.bennett1224
brian.charles.bennett1224

Hard to imagine anyone paying for this service would troll you with comments like, "you're a perma-bear." I hope you're referring only to the free YouTube audience. A short-lived two to six week bounce off a six month or longer down trend isn't bullish (unless the name-callers are day traders and measure their cycles in days and a few weeks). Taking into account 90 year, 40-year, and 9 year cycles, hyper waves (a nod to the late, great, Tyler Jenks there), de-globalization of economies, and the impending work-force population declines, how can anyone not see how this year appears to be the beginning of a protracted, multi-year down trend? If that makes me a perma-bear, then I'll embrace the name calling along with you, Peter. It's better to be on the wrong side of popularity if that means you're on the right side of the trades.

DAV15J
DAV15J

Seems to me this uber bear turned bullish AFTER he got the call wrong. It’s clear he doesn’t risk his own money. Serious doubts about the service.

Shameful he’s pretending he called the current bull run.

Lavishing praise on HUSSMANN???!!! Oh. My. God!

I’ve read Peter was bearish from March 21. V poor.

FWIW I am bearish into Q2 23, not at all bcos of Peter. I left mkt at ☹️ 11100 ndx, not short.

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mansson_magnus2823
mansson_magnus2823

brian.charles.bennett1224 said:

Hard to imagine anyone paying for this service would troll you with comments like, "you're a perma-bear." I hope you're referring only to the free YouTube audience. A short-lived two to six week bounce off a six month or longer down trend isn't bullish (unless the name-callers are day traders and measure their cycles in days and a few weeks). Taking into account 90 year, 40-year, and 9 year cycles, hyper waves (a nod to the late, great, Tyler Jenks there), de-globalization of economies, and the impending work-force population declines, how can anyone not see how this year appears to be the beginning of a protracted, multi-year down trend? If that makes me a perma-bear, then I'll embrace the name calling along with you, Peter. It's better to be on the wrong side of popularity if that means you're on the right side of the trades.

Yes you probably will be right...eventually.

mansson_magnus2823
mansson_magnus2823

Tima said:

Thank you Peter so much for the update. People get emotional and you are staying strong behind your own work, it what counts the most.

Well I doubt he risks his own money on these projections which likely helps keep him strong and he has all his subscribers paying him. There are projections upside and downside so market can either go up or down :)

m1.c70
m1.c70

Thanks Peter. Please don't let the emotionality of one or two affect you. They don't seem to understand probabilities, and weight of evidence or the fact that specific trades are their responsibility. I can't think of any other service which provides such value to help me navigate a bear market which are notoriously difficult.

alschoo22024
alschoo22024

I started watching this vid , and fell asleep....(busy , long day of work) I woke up a few hours later and decided to watch the vid..Peter , its easy to see that you are a highly advanced market cycle guy.. I know too were in a bznz of probability ,but it is very interesting to see all the different aspects / angles that are out there..THANK YOU FOR THIS VID AND YOUR HARD WORK

mansson_magnus2823
mansson_magnus2823

m1.c70 said:

Thanks Peter. Please don't let the emotionality of one or two affect you. They don't seem to understand probabilities, and weight of evidence or the fact that specific trades are their responsibility. I can't think of any other service which provides such value to help me navigate a bear market which are notoriously difficult.

Yes, don't be critical. Coming out with some generic blurb and being sycophantic is far more important. This is why trading environments can become toxic.

franks115267
franks115267

Thanks Peter much appreciated, any chance you could do a bit of a round Robin update soon please, including gold, TLT etc, and if possible an update on the deflation chart I seem to recall from a few weeks ago

jakelu383536
jakelu383536

There is no question that Peter has been sucesful and has developed a great platform. I think the key issue is what is the objective of the analysis. I see both sides here and think there is a misperception. I think Peter is trying to provide analysis on the general market vs. short term ups and downs. Maybe im wrong? I onlly say this becasue the projections have been spot on to the upside. they all hit. That doesnt mean the market is going down right away; some people playing the short term while many others may be playing the longer term. For me I've been moslly in cash since Peterswarning . But from a trading perspective on a weekly perspective the analysis would throw much of us off if trying to trade the down or up in the short term. That's where I see more of the issue here; How should we be using the analysis vs projections in the short term. Understand the TA goes hand in hand but my objective view has been the projections have mostly trumped the TA. I mean ive zoned out on the analysis and look at the web projections every morning; Man they been spot on.They have? we now have more upside and the downside has been invalidated. So how should one play this? i think the bear will be back but we need a little more unfinsihed business to the upside to get everyone on the wrong side again. Ithink it's ok for peter to hear construtive critiqe. but hey have some respect while doing it. Leave the emotions off the table. I know its hard becasue it's money and everyone gets emotional. EVERYONE.

jakelu383536
jakelu383536

also both the DOW and s and p have greater upside projections. and downside have been invalidated. If i understand correct even though Nq leads. there are two major indicies now that are both in sync so my take is that they are the direction i will focus in on.

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

Here’s a spatula for bulls trolling Peter to scrape Egg off their faces as ESZ trades down 63 handles in Globex as November unemployment rate 3.7% & payrolls increases 263,000 more than expected. ~Dorothy

srblack1960144
srblack1960144

Thanks Peter, your wisdom and experience is always appreciated (by most). Big drop this morning after the unemployment report could be proving you right. Cycles guys I follow expect a bottom ~March 2023.

ryguy
ryguy

Thank you Peter. You know I love the long updates :). I'm really getting a hang of the cycle projection approach. Appreciate you noticing my comment asking to incorporate the statistics more. I enjoyed the walkthrough of although a high success rate, can't be trusted. Perhaps in the weekend update, you can take it a step further in the prior bear markets reflection confirming the longer-term offset was in fact generated at the same time the 48.4 had an upside invalidation miss.

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Ken12341429
Ken12341429

consider the angry emotional rants to be further signs of frayed nerves ahead of a trend shift. the bullish confidence of some of the aggrieved may be telling.....

brian1469
brian1469

Just got out of pretty much everything. Think I'm going to enjoy the Christmas season and get back at it next year.

Will still follow along to keep a pulse of what is happening

I don't see a edge for either side the rest of the year maybe we get more of rally but I think we have already got most of it

I think the best play here might be to throw on a iron condor but I would rather sit it out

Peter thanks for your guidance as this year has been a great one

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