Would have been awesome for an intraday update. Market was down big rallied all way to up only to reverse. On any technical that is a huge reversal and at least could have updated that the upside projections are mostly out.

thanks Peter. very interesting pattern. let's see what happens.

I had spotted the week 11-18 Feb for potential all time high in wave analysis (orthodox top) since two weeks ago. If today's move is the last corrective downside correction, there should be another 2-3 sessions to call the final top. / SP500: 4639.81-4677.28 / DJI: 36059-36289 / NDX: 15298-15458 / VTI: 234.11-236.03. If tomorrow Friday the market does not hold, the game should be already over by Monday. Today's move is extremely bearish under any circumstances but I would dare to write that I would be waiting for one last leg upwards. I have 25 years of experience in the market and fully agree to Peter's assumption. Would expect sentiment to be lifted for just one more spike upwards and that's it!

Last updated 3 years ago

Thanks so much Peter. These are my favorite types of studies on price action behavior. I didn't know you had an interest in this 'esoteric' stuff. I highly recommend you check out the books written by Bradley Cowan, if you haven't already. He's based out of San Diego and very little is published by him now. At most, a rare short update on his site every few years. Coincidentally, just a few days ago he put out the first update since 2020 where he just highlighted the importance of the New Moon in catching turns in the RUT and SP500! His books are an initiation into the esoteric workings of the markets; I own them all. His website is http://www.cycle-trader.com/ and it's the best $1500 or whatever the cost was for all of his books. Anybody with a religious or spiritual side and belief will fully appreciate his contribution to market studies.

I am directionally agnostic and am not an advocate for the bull or bear case – I just would like to see a balanced discussion of the system output, without reference to or reliance upon other subjective technical analysis, which (in my view) is of limited or dubious value.

However, if we are now looking at lunar cycles, a more compelling approach have been to present all the major market crashes in this context. At least include the more recent, 1999/2000, 2007/8, 2020 crashes (as opposed to just two cherry picked examples). Next, just for giggles & out of curiosity, what would a back test of the Eliades Cycle Price Projections system over those market events tell us? Perhaps there are clues that could help us better understand the recent phenomena of rapid reversal & short term up/down offset targets being met intraday while the longer term offsets tempt us to hold strong (long or short)? Peter, maybe that’s a fun exercise for the weekend?

For both NDX & SPX there are still currently valid upside projections, but as the markets trade lower, as of writing, these are at risk of invalidation. Shorter term (daily) signals are generating downside projections, some of which seem to have already been met. Perhaps its loop time again?
The weekly projections will be very interesting to watch & may well generate new signals at COB today.

thebigbluecheese said:

I am directionally agnostic and am not an advocate for the bull or bear case – I just would like to see a balanced discussion of the system output, without reference to or reliance upon other subjective technical analysis, which (in my view) is of limited or dubious value.

However, if we are now looking at lunar cycles, a more compelling approach have been to present all the major market crashes in this context. At least include the more recent, 1999/2000, 2007/8, 2020 crashes (as opposed to just two cherry picked examples). Next, just for giggles & out of curiosity, what would a back test of the Eliades Cycle Price Projections system over those market events tell us? Perhaps there are clues that could help us better understand the recent phenomena of rapid reversal & short term up/down offset targets being met intraday while the longer term offsets tempt us to hold strong (long or short)? Peter, maybe that’s a fun exercise for the weekend?

For both NDX & SPX there are still currently valid upside projections, but as the markets trade lower, as of writing, these are at risk of invalidation. Shorter term (daily) signals are generating downside projections, some of which seem to have already been met. Perhaps its loop time again?
The weekly projections will be very interesting to watch & may well generate new signals at COB today.

I must admit to being offended by your accusation of cherry-picking, bbc. There have been ONLY two real crashes in the last hundred years by my observation. The other periods you mention were serious market declines over much longer time periods. In 1929, the DJIA was down 40.8% intra-day in just 12 trading days. In 1987, the DJIA was down almost an equivalent 39.3% intra-day in just 12 trading days. In 2000, the decline was 31% in 2 1/2 years. In 2007-2008, the initial decline of 40% took around a year. 2020 came a little closer to crash-like definitions with the final 13 day decline measuring 32.8%. None of those declines over the past 22 years fits my definition of a crash. Indeed, there was no cherry-picking. There were only two crashes in the past 100+ years. Our tracking of them so far has been eerie. Be aware of the percentages I spoke about in the update that the analogy would continue closely. They are indeed very small but compelling!!

Peter Eliades said:

thebigbluecheese said:

I am directionally agnostic and am not an advocate for the bull or bear case – I just would like to see a balanced discussion of the system output, without reference to or reliance upon other subjective technical analysis, which (in my view) is of limited or dubious value.

However, if we are now looking at lunar cycles, a more compelling approach have been to present all the major market crashes in this context. At least include the more recent, 1999/2000, 2007/8, 2020 crashes (as opposed to just two cherry picked examples). Next, just for giggles & out of curiosity, what would a back test of the Eliades Cycle Price Projections system over those market events tell us? Perhaps there are clues that could help us better understand the recent phenomena of rapid reversal & short term up/down offset targets being met intraday while the longer term offsets tempt us to hold strong (long or short)? Peter, maybe that’s a fun exercise for the weekend?

For both NDX & SPX there are still currently valid upside projections, but as the markets trade lower, as of writing, these are at risk of invalidation. Shorter term (daily) signals are generating downside projections, some of which seem to have already been met. Perhaps its loop time again?
The weekly projections will be very interesting to watch & may well generate new signals at COB today.

I must admit to being offended by your accusation of cherry-picking, bbc. There have been ONLY two real crashes in the last hundred years by my observation. The other periods you mention were serious market declines over much longer time periods. In 1929, the DJIA was down 40.8% intra-day in just 12 trading days. In 1987, the DJIA was down almost an equivalent 39.3% intra-day in just 12 trading days. In 2000, the decline was 31% in 2 1/2 years. In 2007-2008, the initial decline of 40% took around a year. 2020 came a little closer to crash-like definitions with the final 13 day decline measuring 32.8%. None of those declines over the past 22 years fits my definition of a crash. Indeed, there was no cherry-picking. There were only two crashes in the past 100+ years. Our tracking of them so far has been eerie. Be aware of the percentages I spoke about in the update that the analogy would continue closely. They are indeed very small but compelling!!

Hi Peter, thanks for your response. My post was not intended to offend but rather to encourage objective debate & discussion among subscribers. Firstly, let me restate what I have said publicly and to you directly (via email) many times: I am a huge fan of your software, I believe it has enormous potential.

As for the definition of crashes, I do not refute your definition of & assertion of there being only 2 real crashes. However, in the past 40 years there are many hundreds of instances of daily collapses >2%, and many score of collapses > 5% and granted, only a score or so >7%....and if you go back to 1929, the sample only increases. But this was not the point I was trying to make. I am sure that you would agree that regardless of the seeming efficacy of your referenced examples, a sample of 2 or 3 is not statistically significant (hence the cherry picked reference). If you include these other events (say >3% or >5% daily declines) to increase your sample size, what do the statistics tell us? Are tehre more instances of 38 & 56 days & lunar events? Was this a lucky coincidence, or is there something more meaningful to be discerned? What would a back test of your system over these occurrences reveal?

Your analogy may well prove to be correct ,or not, but the recent price action appears to be on your side. The ‘29 crash prompted Edward Dewey to embark upon a life’s work to understand the causes of those tumultuous events. Those efforts as you know, resulted in the study of cycles and his conclusion that cycles are at the root of many market moves. JM Hurst (and others) followed suit & you have furthered that work & I thank you for it. I’d like to see the discussion continue to evolve & encourage others to participate in it. Any chance we can get that chat room underway?

Can you please review GLD. its BREAKING OUT

Peter Eliades is absolutely right in the definition of the term 'crash'. IMHO, with modern electronic equipment and a plethora of cash available, a 'crash' in its classic form is out of subject. The reason is that cash is poured in and drawn out of the system on each leg upwards. In order to have a crash, you need absolute, total cash inflows into the system that are trapped for a reason we might not know. In order to have a crash you need to observe severe drops with low or moderate amount of volume. It is when market drops and only a few get out, as their patience has not yet been broken. The current situation is IMHO ideal in order to witness a severe drop. Constant but moderate in size every day. Plunge. Not crash. My 20+ years of experience in the markets (good but not comparable to Peter's experience) tells me that bulls trapping has occurred unquestionably on Jan 5 and a couple of days before, after the announcement of FB earnings. These two events have created a dramatic trap for bulls and to my experience there are less than 3-5% of chances that the market will be able to reverse. Minimum expected decline in SP500 valuation is 50% of the great move from 2009 lows till today. I repeat: 50%. For those very few who know how to calculate values in logarithmic and not arithmetic scales, this leads to sqrt(4.800x666) = 1.788 pts. A message to Peter Eliades: please do not display charts in arithmetic scale. It is wrong to calculate values in arithmetic scale. Markets never move in numbers, they move in percentages. Thanks for giving me the chance to express a few things here.

am i correct that GLD and commodities are the new place to be going forward? and USO as well? ty