SMC Update 2-14-23

02/14/2023


Comments (13)
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brian1469
brian1469

Thanks for looking at the IWM Peter as I believe it is leading us lower.

Also that SPX if we can get to low side of it will be key.

Looks like we could have one of those delayed reactions tomorrow

Edit: Well it looks like I will be stopped out again on things. Don't feel comfortable short here getting that projection to the 4220 area on the es

Well looking at the closing it looks like bears were tricked again 3/4 should hit up to 4222 on the ES. While the lower projection on the 7/8 should be invalidated tomorrow even with a sideways day.

This scenario sucks for the bears because I am having a hard time seeing how we can get down below 4000 to invalidate the upper projections on the 48 in the next few weeks when it was easy to do. Looks like a grind higher of slow loop projections to 4400

Since it looks like this scenario has the upper hand I would like to long the YM if it can break out here and go and form a double top at the all time high

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daniel039209
daniel039209

Hi Peter; here is a query that your number crunching superstar, Stefan, might tackle . How many days ABOVE the 200 dma of SPX has the market recorded in both bear markets 2000-03 & 2007-09? I notice you don’t include the 100 or 200dma on charts any longer. Until break of that , since Jan 10-13-15 we have been in a strong up trend. Seasonality is bad from now till next 5-7 days. We will see if we can break more than a 10dma on way down. 200 is thee marquee average in my opin.

adwhartonmd232
adwhartonmd232

Peter What may be very interesting would be to run projections on the VIX index

Maybe should consider purchase Some call options on the VIX for March or April

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rsshah68
rsshah68

Peter, on my platform, it shows that for SPX, @NQ and QQQ a confirmed upside price projection was given for the 3.5/4 offset on a closing price. In the video you showed the high/low prices.

MJMassens2570
MJMassens2570

daniel039209 said:

Hi Peter; here is a query that your number crunching superstar, Stefan, might tackle . How many days ABOVE the 200 dma of SPX has the market recorded in both bear markets 2000-03 & 2007-09? I notice you don’t include the 100 or 200dma on charts any longer. Until break of that , since Jan 10-13-15 we have been in a strong up trend. Seasonality is bad from now till next 5-7 days. We will see if we can break more than a 10dma on way down. 200 is thee marquee average in my opin.

Interestingly, we had a golden 50/200 cross on Daily, but the weekly is approaching a death cross. 2 opposing narratives. Hars to say which will win

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

My profile showed Low on 2-14 then chop until 2-20. It appears yesterday’s wild swing day indicates profile flipped so 2-14 was high will see chop today, Thurs & Friday. 20th a big down day with low 2-23. ~ Dorothy 💤💤💤💤

tcuscino
tcuscino

You use the NDX in each and every update; however, there is no NDX in the web app. Can you add it for those who do not have the software?

ericoh792283
ericoh792283

Bear market is over!

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

Correction: Feb 20th Washington’s Birthday. Globex Trades on 2-20 the down day May skew into 2-21. ~Dorothy

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

HILARIOUS!!! All the projections get met to the upside and laugh about it ha ha ha. BUT THE OTHER HIGHER PROJECTIONS - NO THEY WONT GET HIT .. why??? Cause I'm A PERMA BEAR THATS WHY!! S&P 4200 tomorrow .. You were a bear 🐻 at 3600 looking for Armageddon. Meanwhile back at the ranch 700 points and 2000 on the Q's .. HILARIOUSLY FUNNY!!

elchico714622
elchico714622

XXSPOWER127 said:

HILARIOUS!!! All the projections get met to the upside and laugh about it ha ha ha. BUT THE OTHER HIGHER PROJECTIONS - NO THEY WONT GET HIT .. why??? Cause I'm A PERMA BEAR THATS WHY!! S&P 4200 tomorrow .. You were a bear 🐻 at 3600 looking for Armageddon. Meanwhile back at the ranch 700 points and 2000 on the Q's .. HILARIOUSLY FUNNY!!

Yeah… this is starting to get annoying… projections to the upside getting ignored… finding every possible way to be bearish

pavan.vaswani3973
pavan.vaswani3973

I'm getting impatient with the inverse bear market 😱

noxz3972
noxz3972

Let us see if we can make it to the SPX 48.4 confirmed projection (has been given since end of November), before the next FOMC meeting in March.

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