SMC Update 2-15-23

02/15/2023


Comments (15)
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ericoh792283
ericoh792283

Again, low vix is also indication that it’s a new bull market. At some point we may have to realize that bear market ended and move on from this

daniel039209
daniel039209

It’s been a real struggle to watch the market- since October lows and again December lows- have one of the biggest rallies in stocks I have seen in years. What is being missed? It’s a 14-20% rally that has gone against all predictions. From Jan 12/13th we have gone up 1600-1700 NDX points. Coincides with You tube VIX study/ prediction. Question; what is your “stop out, I might be wrong “point ? Or will you keep searching for a SRL or a retrace point to stay negative? Even if we went down 5% tomorrow, we would still be up 10+ %. It’s a rough way to try to trade the market. Looking for turn down for this long. Very frustrating. Similar to March 2021. Till top on Jan 2022. Also, I have said and believe, this is NOT 2000 nor is it 2007. Not a good compare, sorry

suitedaces11
suitedaces11

Confirmed 189/194 projections...

jeanrobert15225
jeanrobert15225

Thank you very much Peter for your updates.Your appraisal of the past is formidable and always welcome. Very interested in all what you say. Very good technical analysis as always even if it is a though business indeed not in retrospect but prospectively . Your projections shows the path very often as we could see now. It is very difficult in managed markets like we are now to apply the lessons of the past. We are in a liquidity driven market abetted by the federal reserve and the US government providing all the liquidity they need to the very known brokerage of wall-street to fool the most people all the time because they are trading all the time for their profits by knowing how many players have taken puts or calls , at what strike price , what are their stops loss , what are their reserves or margins etc. and when to call them because they foolishly partake this information with them so they see most of the cards played by their adversaries, you. The Glass-Stegall repeal under Bill Clinton has given the passport for those brokers to be too big to fail so they have always had a leeway which we have seen in 2000-2002, 2007-2008 and March 2020 to have the unlimited money printing that they need from the two instances I have named before. So according to me downsize in markets seem limited and with all the 100 years records they have broken in the stock markets since 2018, it is my opinion that’s it is going up whatever , until the US dollar loose it’s reserve currency status. So Peter you are stacked against the federal government, the federal reserve which is completely at the service of those brokers to big to fail and finally all those brokers with their giant computers and all the information they exchange under the nose of the SEC. Tough business indeed, Peter. We will see how it will play , I respect your opinion.

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dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

Peter, Excellent Update I Agree Time Is Up. Tick Tock ⏲️ ~ Dorothy

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

Again I Ask the Age of Peter’s biggest agitators? Have you only been investors in Bull Markets? How many bear markets have you SURVIVED? The biggest rallies are in Bear Markets fueled by short covering and FOMO! Peter doesn’t tell you not to buy or tell you when to sell! Any ‘seasoned investor’ has a tool bag of indicators and technical analysis to use to determine when a stock is a buy or if it should be sold. Grow Up Take Responsibility for your own investment decisions! R🐜 Over ~Dorothy

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

Bloomberg: Peter Tchir discusses Zero DTE Single Day Options Volume is exploding. Single Day options are mostly Index Weekly are single stock options. 40% of equity hedging related to single stock options Algos are like windshild wiper buy take out stops then sell go short. they turn on a dime. They use SPY laddering from one strike to the next. Like Gamma Squeeze. Increases volatility 1/2 to 1% 1 1/2% volatility why seeing so many wild swings. He thinks there will be a ALGO crash CIRCUIT BREAKERS KICK IN like 2018 then regulators will step in to regulate 0DTE Options. ~Dorothy

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

Peter, Do you have Bloomberg Terminal? I recall your son works for Bloomberg. Have him check MOSO Tracks these 0DTE Options. Come up with way to use them as indicator with your work? ~Dorothy

brian1469
brian1469

Well good news for the Bears all the economic data went there way this morning.

I believe this is the critical juncture the 7/8 downside projection on the ES needs to happen. If we have an up or sideways day it invalidates it. We have a 3/4 to deal with on the upside but if we can make it to the 7/8 we should invalidate it and have a shot to invalidate the 48.

I have no idea who is going to jump in and buy here. This is just a horrific setup to be bullish in. I get the rally it did it's job and cleared out the bearishness and has everybody saying new bull market but this is the moment it has to happen for the bears I believe

I don't know if this is completely true but this what I'm talking about with horrific setup for the bulls. S&P would have to trade about 1500 to produce a return equal to the interest rate on 6 month treasuries

FED talking 50 next meeting I thought this would come up with the data. “Indeed, at our meeting two weeks ago, setting aside what financial market participants expected us to do, I saw a compelling economic case for a 50 basis-point increase, which would have brought the top of the target range to 5%.” said Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester

Let's get a trend down day and get to the 7/8 4035 by end of the day tomorrow heading into the weekend

Edit: One of the worst days ever for bears looks like they are going to invalidate our downside 7/8 target. Day is not over but things are not looking good.

Edit: Bears did the work they needed now we need to get down to that 7/8 projection level and we can have something that can get the ball rolling.

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dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

Outside Day reversal on ESH & Close to taking out low of 2-14. Great Call Peter.

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

MarketTiming01 said: Bloomberg said this was SEC response to meme stock trading shorten settlement to next day lowers risk to brokerage firms my guess. interesting news the other day ... humm, why would they be doing that?? I think we all know ... safe trading to all

"SEC votes 3-2 to shorten the standard settlement cycle for most broker-dealer transactions in securities to T+1 from T+2. The final rules will become effective 60 days after publication in the Federal Register and have a compliance date of May 28, 2024"

MarketTiming01 said:

interesting news the other day ... humm, why would they be doing that?? I think we all know ... safe trading to all

"SEC votes 3-2 to shorten the standard settlement cycle for most broker-dealer transactions in securities to T+1 from T+2. The final rules will become effective 60 days after publication in the Federal Register and have a compliance date of May 28, 2024"

adwhartonmd232
adwhartonmd232

The “50 cent” VIX better is back gambling that VIX will be above 40 in next 2-3 months

brian1469
brian1469

MarketTiming01 said:

If NDX is the leader, as Peter always says, its sure not good news for Bears, as it holds no down side moves, and keeps bouncing up ....... crazy dynamics for sure. Good luck to all.

The invisible hand is everywhere look at the IWM. Pretty uninspiring effort by the bears.

But they are up against somebody that does not want this market down.

Most likely Option market makers playing games with expiration tomorrow

What's crazy is that it looks like the market is following BTC. We just hit all upside targets in it though so we should head down from here.

To me this shows you stupid this market has become it lets the biggest ponzi ever in BTC be the leader. BTC should have absolutely nothing to do with the market at this point

I mean who setting the algos that the price of BTC is the most important thing for the market

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elchico714622
elchico714622

Wow… about to go green… cpi and ppi couldn’t knock it down. 4200 coming most likely

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

Bulls: Learn about Fibonacci Retracements. Algos all programmed today (so far) sold YMH, SPH & NQH just above.618 retracement. Haven’t been Green (Yet) all day. 1 1/2 hours to go anything can happen with Zero 0 DTE Options. Tomorrow should make a lower low Sunday Globex, Monday Globex & Tuesday should be big down. No guarantees.

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