SMC Update 2-26-23

04/26/2023


Comments (30)
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danizh53
danizh53

Hi Peter, you had significantly higher upside projections on TSLA. Safe to assume those won't be met?

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

Thanks Peter ~ Dorothy

srblack1960144
srblack1960144

As of 2:55 pm, the 65-minute chart projection to 4339 that's been there since November, is invalidated.
Short term I see a projection down to 4030 on the 65-minute charts. The daily chart projection (median price) to 4369 will be invalidated at the close today.
Party in NYC tonight? : )

brian1469
brian1469

srblack1960144 said:

As of 2:55 pm, the 65-minute chart projection to 4339 that's been there since November, is invalidated.
Short term I see a projection down to 4030 on the 65-minute charts. The daily chart projection (median price) to 4369 will be invalidated at the close today.
Party in NYC tonight? : )

I'm with you!

Peter have a drink for us and the invalidation of the 48/55 ES today after months of waiting

spencerdavis2000
spencerdavis2000

have a great time Peter stay safe.

arcon00224
arcon00224

Enjoy your time in NYC, Peter. Thanks for even doing a short update at all!

brian1469
brian1469

Getting the relief rally all at once lol. They love making it hard in us but still nothing done to the projections.

Peter if you get time for an update very short term projections would be appreciated.

Thanks, Brian

Edit was thinking we could get all the way back up to 4150 area on the es for this rally was not expecting it in a day.

Also MTD AVWAP is at 4141 for the ES so wouldn't be surprised if we close the month in this area tomorrow. Could still get another pop and sell off back though tomorrow

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srblack1960144
srblack1960144

What a difference a day makes. It could be just a one-day wonder, but in my software I put in a nick filter of one to bring back those upside projections, and on the 65-minute and 30-minute charts there are now upside projections lining up like dominos that could propel SPX to 4250+. Using Terry Laundry's T-Theory there are now 3 different types of "T's" that suggest this rally should continue until at least May 8th. If this pans out I think it could be the last hurrah for the bear market rally, as suggested frequently by Cem Karsan in his Twitter interviews.

ericoh792283
ericoh792283

Time to really hang your bear suite. Seriously

srblack1960144
srblack1960144

brian1469 said:

Getting the relief rally all at once lol. They love making it hard in us but still nothing done to the projections.

Peter if you get time for an update very short term projections would be appreciated.

Thanks, Brian

On the 65-minute chart, 10/12.5 offsets...there is a confirmed projection to 4140 to 4154. If that is hit, the next longer offsets of 21/24 will have a confirmed projection to about 4200+...and if that is hit, the next longer offsets of 42/48 will have a confirmed projection to about 4250. That's a lot of if's, but there was so much bearishness yesterday that it wouldn't surprise me if it happens.

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

Anyone with the software has SPX given any new upside projections today? Thanks. ~D

brian1469
brian1469

srblack1960144 said:

brian1469 said:

Getting the relief rally all at once lol. They love making it hard in us but still nothing done to the projections.

Peter if you get time for an update very short term projections would be appreciated.

Thanks, Brian

On the 65-minute chart, 10/12.5 offsets...there is a confirmed projection to 4140 to 4154. If that is hit, the next longer offsets of 21/24 will have a confirmed projection to about 4200+...and if that is hit, the next longer offsets of 42/48 will have a confirmed projection to about 4250. That's a lot of if's, but there was so much bearishness yesterday that it wouldn't surprise me if it happens.

We still had the 24 daily 5 and 20 weekly up into the 4230-50 areas on the ES so it wouldn't surprise me at all.

I still don't know if we are going to get there but it was never out of question. But I still believe this is just a relief rally until it gets above 4150 convincingly. Month end is helping the squeeze for sure.

It has been very painful as all my gains this week have evaporated

My line in the sand for the SPX is were we are now is 4126 need to close the month here or below

Also volume is a joke

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XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

HILARIOUS !!!!!!!!!

you better hope that

A) /ES 96.8/110 60MIN and 30min DON'T CONFIRM or else you can go night night

b) /NQ lol yeah train .. running 13200 remember who was bull and bear at 10200 .....

srblack1960144
srblack1960144

dcarter8883312 said:

Anyone with the software has SPX given any new upside projections today? Thanks. ~D

See my post above...one I forgot on the 65-minute chart, there's one that was never invalidated. The 145/165 offsets have a confirmed projection from 4176 to 4291.

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

srblack1960144 said:

dcarter8883312 said:

Anyone with the software has SPX given any new upside projections today? Thanks. ~D

See my post above...one I forgot on the 65-minute chart, there's one that was never invalidated. The 145/165 offsets have a confirmed projection from 4176 to 4291.

Dont worry!!! Peter will say IGNORE THE HIGHER projections .. Just stay short with double and triple leverage shorty short shorty

OH and do like BRIAN - SHORT THE DOW ! THATS ALWAYS A BRILLIANT IDEA !! LOL

but there is a moon today in the sky

brian1469
brian1469

XXSPOWER127 said:

srblack1960144 said:

dcarter8883312 said:

Anyone with the software has SPX given any new upside projections today? Thanks. ~D

See my post above...one I forgot on the 65-minute chart, there's one that was never invalidated. The 145/165 offsets have a confirmed projection from 4176 to 4291.

Dont worry!!! Peter will say IGNORE THE HIGHER projections .. Just stay short with double and triple leverage shorty short shorty

OH and do like BRIAN - SHORT THE DOW ! THATS ALWAYS A BRILLIANT IDEA !! LOL

but there is a moon today in the sky

Hey now shorting the YM was one of my winners this week. I got out when we hit the 7/8 on the downside. All my long term puts got destroyed today though. I'm back to even on the ones I bought last week. Frustrating for sure. I did open a big SPX spread today that I'm down on and might just close if we close the month up from here.

The pressure is back on the bulls can you push them through X

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brian1469
brian1469

I actually think that afterhours pop in the futures could be it.

NQ double top with 3/31

ES still looking like a head and shoulders also with a start date of 3/31

See what tomorrow brings it should let us know

Edit: X I just shorted the YM again on the open

AMZN red now this pig is going down. Today was to confuse everybody again.

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ericoh792283
ericoh792283

Vix at 16.5.

brian1469
brian1469

I got out of my SPY, QQQ, SPX put and my Ym short this morning had a busy work day and didn't want to risk a vix melt Friday which it looks like we got with 1.5 hours left. Massive stick save but it finally feels like we can get to the 4230-50 area and hit those upper projections.

Still waiting to go long after the weekend to make sure it wasn't month end shenanigan's

Edit: I went short with the ES in the afterhours before close. Wanted something on for the FRC issue since they are now saying these deposits won't be bailed out since they are not big donors for Biden and Yellen like SVB was.

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dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

SPX Target 4,224.28 my best guess for a peak— May 3rd or 4th. ~Dorothy

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