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arcon00224
thanks Peter !
dcarter8883312
Peter,
If I’m reading FLDs correctly we have window today IF SPX sees break down TODAY Est 3800 we wouldn’t have to wait for below 3580 to get lower projections. Any possibility of posting levels today every hour or two that would give lower projection? My profile shows sharp drop today into March 21-22 tradable Low.
XXSPOWER127
Hilarious!! You don't even look at your own software projections showing the ramp up I told you about YESTERDAY!! Unreal !! LOOK AT YOUR SOFTWARE. Stop eating Baklava.
daniel039209
Any update? And your NDX and NQ.z futures arent aligned. The futures rolled, i think you have the old one up. Either way, we are 2% above the carefully constructed resistance lines in NDX. While waiting for big moves down, it would be helpful to show some levels of resistance, when have an outsized rally again. NDx up 4 days in a row, if i am not mistaken
XXSPOWER127
96.8 / 110.6 PROJECTIONS ON /NQ GREEN like the Hulk,
BUT you will say NO NO NO.. right? what are the %'s on the 96.8?
Go to the 60min chart on the 96.8 and you have confirmed 13,600 thats ANOTHER 1000 points.
Just like the last time and the time before that and the time before that . you do the same thing
WHAT ABOUT SPEED RESISTANCE LINES?
REMEMBER U SAID IF YOU GET ABOVE THEM YOU GO BACK TO OLD HIGHS ?
where are you with that?
what about the 45 trading days.. 54 days ..
Look at SQQQ Triple lever .. 24.2 and 48.4 CONFIRMED downside ...
Yawn ....
OOOH YEAH nasdaq weekly lets look at that 20.21 CONFIRMED !!! 14000
nah...........
XXSPOWER127
$QQQ 7/8 DAY OFFSET CONFIRMED NOW HIGHER PRICE 314 TO 318 WOW
$QQQ 96.8.110 DAY OFFSET CONFIRMED NOW HIGHER PRICE 333 TO 366 WOW
I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW THE %'S OF HITS OUT OF 100 WOULDN'T U ?
@ES SAYS 24 HIT THE DOWNSIDE ALREADY
2 DAY HAS 4012-4015 NOW UPSIDE
@ES 10 WEEK HAS BIG UPSIDE .. OMG ........
-->>
FROM THE OTHER GUY ?????????
Edit we hit the trendline with a high 12687.
12700 +++ ALREADY..
AND REMEMBER ? PETER SAID NEWS DOES NOT MOVE MARKETS - NEITHER DOES THE FED .. REMEMBER ? I DO.
dcarter8883312
I normally wouldn’t copy & paste a long article but this is important for explaining why SPX Hasn’t broken 3800.
That maybe about to change. MarketWatch
~Dorothy
U.S. stocks could see increasingly wild swings in the coming days as option contracts tied to trillions of dollars in securities are set to expire on Friday, removing a buffer that some say has helped to keep the S&P 500 index from breaking out of a tight trading range.
Option contracts worth $2.8 trillion are set to expire during Friday’s “quadruple witching” event, according to figures from Goldman Sachs Group GS, +0.93%.
“Quadruple witching,” as its known, happens when equity futures and option contracts tied to individual stocks and indexes —- as well as exchange-traded funds — all expire on the same day. Some option contracts expire in the morning, while others expire in the afternoon. This typically happens four times a year, roughly once per quarter.
Days like these sometimes coincide with volatility in markets as traders scramble to cut their losses or exercise “in the money” contracts to claim their winnings.
However, a top derivatives analyst at Goldman sees the potential for stocks to see even wilder swings in the sessions to come as a rash of contracts that have helped to suppress volatility in the equity market expire.
Options expiring on Friday could “remove the 4k pinner that has kept a lid on big moves,” said Scott Rubner, a managing director and top derivatives strategist at Goldman, in a note to clients obtained by MarketWatch. This could make the S&P 500 more vulnerable to a big swing in either direction.
“Either way. We are going to move next week.”
Since the start of the year, the S&P 500 has traded in a narrow channel of about 400 points bounded by 3,800 on the downside, and 4,200 on the upside, according to data from FactSet.
These levels correspond with some of the most popular strike prices for options tied to the S&P 500, according to data from Rubner’s note. A strike price is the level at which the holder of a contract has the opportunity — but not the obligation — to buy or sell a security, depending on the type of option one owns.
That’s not a coincidence. Over the past year, trading in option contracts on the verge of expiring, known as “zero-days to expiration” or “0DTE” options, has become increasingly popular.
One result of this trend is that they have helped keep stocks in a narrow range, while fueling more intraday swings within that range, a pattern that several traders have compared to a “game of ping pong.”
According to Goldman, 0DTEs represent more than 40% of average daily trading volume in contracts tied to the S&P 500.
Earlier this week, trading in 0DTEs helped keep the S&P 500 from breaking below the 3,800 level as markets reeled following the closure of three U.S. banks, according to Brent Kochuba, founder of SpotGamma, a provider of data and analytics about the option market.
Analysts says this is one reason that the Cboe Volatility Index VIX, -12.05%, otherwise known as the Vix or Wall Street volatility gauge, has remained so subdued compared with the ICE BofAML MOVE Index, a gauge of implied volatility for the Treasury market, Kochuba and others told MarketWatch.
The MOVE index awed traders earlier this week as volatility in normally placid Treasurys sent it surging to its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. Meanwhile, the Vix VIX barely managed to break above 30, a level it last visited as recently as October.
But some believe this could change starting Friday.
To be sure, Friday isn’t the only session where large slugs of option contracts are set to expire over the next week. On Wednesday, a slug of contracts tied to the Vix will expire on the same day the Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest interest rate-hike decision.
“50% of all Vix open interest expires on Wednesday. That’s pretty significant,” Kochuba said during an interview with MarketWatch.
The end result is that this could help the Vix “catch up” to the MOVE, something that could result in a sharp selloff in stocks, according to Alon Rosin and Sam Skinner, two equity derivatives experts at Oppenheimer.
“The bottom line is this: more volatility is likely coming to the equity market,” Skinner said during a call with MarketWatch. “And the Vix is underpricing it.”
Amy Wu Silverman, an equity derivatives strategist at RBC Capital Markets, expressed a similar view. In emailed comments shared with MarketWatch, she said she expects “volatility levels to remain elevated” heading into next week’s Fed meeting.
Futures traders are pricing in a high likelihood that the Fed will hike its policy rate by 25 basis points. However, traders still see a roughly 20% chance that the Fed could opt to leave interest rates on hold, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.
dcarter8883312
XXSPOWER127 said:
$QQQ 7/8 DAY OFFSET CONFIRMED NOW HIGHER PRICE 314 TO 318 WOW
$QQQ 96.8.110 DAY OFFSET CONFIRMED NOW HIGHER PRICE 333 TO 366 WOW
I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW THE %'S OF HITS OUT OF 100 WOULDN'T U ?
@ES SAYS 24 HIT THE DOWNSIDE ALREADY
2 DAY HAS 4012-4015 NOW UPSIDE
@ES 10 WEEK HAS BIG UPSIDE .. OMG ........
-->>
FROM THE OTHER GUY ?????????
Edit we hit the trendline with a high 12687.
12700 +++ ALREADY..
AND REMEMBER ? PETER SAID NEWS DOES NOT MOVE MARKETS - NEITHER DOES THE FED .. REMEMBER ? I DO.
2nd Time Smart Aleck XXSPower has provided us with a Sell Short Signal. 📉 sure it can go a bit higher in Globex 4015.20 or 4029.42—the downside is much bigger.
~Dorothy
dcarter8883312
Smart Aleck XXSPower
News can move markets for a day or 2.
NEWS CANNOT CHANGE A BEAR MARKET INTO A BULL MARKET.
Peter told us SPX could rally. You have the software trade off it.
Spare us from your drama outrage.
~Dorothy
dcarter8883312
brian1469 said:
Bottomline the FED just injected a ton of liquidity in the system. I have been bearish but closed most of my positions in the last few days.
No reason the market can't get a sugar rush move higher from it been saying all week they will pump into the Fed next week.
Why is everybody so one sided on here lets just try to trade the market. We have been talking about it the last few days the 48 on the daily ES has no been invalidated and it is up at 4300
Being disrespectful to Peter should not be tolerated. “You don’t pay attention to your own projections —stop eating baklava⁉️” THIS CROSSED THE LINE.
I respect everyone’s market opinions only Markets have final decision.
~Dorothy
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thanks Peter !
Peter, If I’m reading FLDs correctly we have window today IF SPX sees break down TODAY Est 3800 we wouldn’t have to wait for below 3580 to get lower projections. Any possibility of posting levels today every hour or two that would give lower projection? My profile shows sharp drop today into March 21-22 tradable Low.
Hilarious!! You don't even look at your own software projections showing the ramp up I told you about YESTERDAY!! Unreal !! LOOK AT YOUR SOFTWARE. Stop eating Baklava.
Any update? And your NDX and NQ.z futures arent aligned. The futures rolled, i think you have the old one up. Either way, we are 2% above the carefully constructed resistance lines in NDX. While waiting for big moves down, it would be helpful to show some levels of resistance, when have an outsized rally again. NDx up 4 days in a row, if i am not mistaken
96.8 / 110.6 PROJECTIONS ON /NQ GREEN like the Hulk, BUT you will say NO NO NO.. right? what are the %'s on the 96.8?
Go to the 60min chart on the 96.8 and you have confirmed 13,600 thats ANOTHER 1000 points. Just like the last time and the time before that and the time before that . you do the same thing WHAT ABOUT SPEED RESISTANCE LINES?
REMEMBER U SAID IF YOU GET ABOVE THEM YOU GO BACK TO OLD HIGHS ? where are you with that? what about the 45 trading days.. 54 days .. Look at SQQQ Triple lever .. 24.2 and 48.4 CONFIRMED downside ... Yawn .... OOOH YEAH nasdaq weekly lets look at that 20.21 CONFIRMED !!! 14000
nah...........
$QQQ 7/8 DAY OFFSET CONFIRMED NOW HIGHER PRICE 314 TO 318 WOW $QQQ 96.8.110 DAY OFFSET CONFIRMED NOW HIGHER PRICE 333 TO 366 WOW I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW THE %'S OF HITS OUT OF 100 WOULDN'T U ?
@ES SAYS 24 HIT THE DOWNSIDE ALREADY
2 DAY HAS 4012-4015 NOW UPSIDE
@ES 10 WEEK HAS BIG UPSIDE .. OMG ........
-->> FROM THE OTHER GUY ????????? Edit we hit the trendline with a high 12687.
12700 +++ ALREADY..
AND REMEMBER ? PETER SAID NEWS DOES NOT MOVE MARKETS - NEITHER DOES THE FED .. REMEMBER ? I DO.
I normally wouldn’t copy & paste a long article but this is important for explaining why SPX Hasn’t broken 3800. That maybe about to change. MarketWatch ~Dorothy
U.S. stocks could see increasingly wild swings in the coming days as option contracts tied to trillions of dollars in securities are set to expire on Friday, removing a buffer that some say has helped to keep the S&P 500 index from breaking out of a tight trading range.
Option contracts worth $2.8 trillion are set to expire during Friday’s “quadruple witching” event, according to figures from Goldman Sachs Group GS, +0.93%.
“Quadruple witching,” as its known, happens when equity futures and option contracts tied to individual stocks and indexes —- as well as exchange-traded funds — all expire on the same day. Some option contracts expire in the morning, while others expire in the afternoon. This typically happens four times a year, roughly once per quarter.
Days like these sometimes coincide with volatility in markets as traders scramble to cut their losses or exercise “in the money” contracts to claim their winnings.
However, a top derivatives analyst at Goldman sees the potential for stocks to see even wilder swings in the sessions to come as a rash of contracts that have helped to suppress volatility in the equity market expire.
Options expiring on Friday could “remove the 4k pinner that has kept a lid on big moves,” said Scott Rubner, a managing director and top derivatives strategist at Goldman, in a note to clients obtained by MarketWatch. This could make the S&P 500 more vulnerable to a big swing in either direction.
“Either way. We are going to move next week.”
Since the start of the year, the S&P 500 has traded in a narrow channel of about 400 points bounded by 3,800 on the downside, and 4,200 on the upside, according to data from FactSet.
These levels correspond with some of the most popular strike prices for options tied to the S&P 500, according to data from Rubner’s note. A strike price is the level at which the holder of a contract has the opportunity — but not the obligation — to buy or sell a security, depending on the type of option one owns.
That’s not a coincidence. Over the past year, trading in option contracts on the verge of expiring, known as “zero-days to expiration” or “0DTE” options, has become increasingly popular.
One result of this trend is that they have helped keep stocks in a narrow range, while fueling more intraday swings within that range, a pattern that several traders have compared to a “game of ping pong.”
According to Goldman, 0DTEs represent more than 40% of average daily trading volume in contracts tied to the S&P 500.
Earlier this week, trading in 0DTEs helped keep the S&P 500 from breaking below the 3,800 level as markets reeled following the closure of three U.S. banks, according to Brent Kochuba, founder of SpotGamma, a provider of data and analytics about the option market.
Analysts says this is one reason that the Cboe Volatility Index VIX, -12.05%, otherwise known as the Vix or Wall Street volatility gauge, has remained so subdued compared with the ICE BofAML MOVE Index, a gauge of implied volatility for the Treasury market, Kochuba and others told MarketWatch.
The MOVE index awed traders earlier this week as volatility in normally placid Treasurys sent it surging to its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. Meanwhile, the Vix VIX barely managed to break above 30, a level it last visited as recently as October.
But some believe this could change starting Friday.
To be sure, Friday isn’t the only session where large slugs of option contracts are set to expire over the next week. On Wednesday, a slug of contracts tied to the Vix will expire on the same day the Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest interest rate-hike decision.
“50% of all Vix open interest expires on Wednesday. That’s pretty significant,” Kochuba said during an interview with MarketWatch.
The end result is that this could help the Vix “catch up” to the MOVE, something that could result in a sharp selloff in stocks, according to Alon Rosin and Sam Skinner, two equity derivatives experts at Oppenheimer.
“The bottom line is this: more volatility is likely coming to the equity market,” Skinner said during a call with MarketWatch. “And the Vix is underpricing it.”
Amy Wu Silverman, an equity derivatives strategist at RBC Capital Markets, expressed a similar view. In emailed comments shared with MarketWatch, she said she expects “volatility levels to remain elevated” heading into next week’s Fed meeting.
Futures traders are pricing in a high likelihood that the Fed will hike its policy rate by 25 basis points. However, traders still see a roughly 20% chance that the Fed could opt to leave interest rates on hold, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.
2nd Time Smart Aleck XXSPower has provided us with a Sell Short Signal. 📉 sure it can go a bit higher in Globex 4015.20 or 4029.42—the downside is much bigger.
~Dorothy
Smart Aleck XXSPower News can move markets for a day or 2. NEWS CANNOT CHANGE A BEAR MARKET INTO A BULL MARKET. Peter told us SPX could rally. You have the software trade off it. Spare us from your drama outrage. ~Dorothy
Being disrespectful to Peter should not be tolerated. “You don’t pay attention to your own projections —stop eating baklava⁉️” THIS CROSSED THE LINE. I respect everyone’s market opinions only Markets have final decision.
~Dorothy
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