SMC Update 3-16-23

Thu, 03/16/2023 Thursday, 03/16/2023 7:14 PM PDT


Comments (18)
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daniel039209
daniel039209

Just a couple of observations; the NDX is outperforming all year, not just the 7% advance over last 4 days. You had said yesterday that it looked like the trend lines would stop the NDX 12,300 ( up 20 pts on day) and market would turn down. We went to almost 12,600. Then your comment tonight is “ the 12.1/ 13 projection nailed the NDX move” . What? Would have been helpful yesterday to know that. And tonight to say “10 more points in SPX and we should turn down” is just hopeful , hopeful for some kind of reversal. No one knows the future, but also one knows the market isn’t always about to break down 20-30-40% , which has been SMC position since Oct lows. It is exhausting being bearish most of the days( and full of losses). Is this normal for bear market to have NDX go back above 200dma ? ( and SPX today) not like 2000 or 2007 from what I recall

daniel039209
daniel039209

Real question ; after such a powerful move in the biggest stocks in the world do you really think the whole market is going to drop tomorrow ? 85% up day ? Is that a failed rally in your experience ? Most likely not

helene3835
helene3835

Peter has been cautioning for days now that the divergence with NDX might result in a sharp rally. I think some subscribers here are confusing the purpose of these daily updates. They are not designed for daily price predictions, but to provide guidance on pattern progressions with the goal of trade risk management. I appreciate Peter’s willingness to share this highly unique system, and find his insights quite valuable. I do agree it’s odd (and frustrating) that the market is down only 3-4% so far with VIX readings so high. One needs to account for the “magic hand” in Oz, at least short term.

helene3835
helene3835

Peter has been cautioning for days now that the divergence with NDX might result in a sharp rally. I think some subscribers here are confusing the purpose of these daily updates. They are not designed for daily price predictions, but to provide guidance on pattern progressions with the goal of trade risk management. I appreciate Peter’s willingness to share this highly unique system, and find his insights quite valuable. I do agree it’s odd (and frustrating) that the market is down only 3-4% so far with VIX readings so high. One needs to account for the “magic hand” in Oz, at least short term.

danizh53
danizh53

daniel039209 said:

Just a couple of observations; the NDX is outperforming all year, not just the 7% advance over last 4 days. You had said yesterday that it looked like the trend lines would stop the NDX 12,300 ( up 20 pts on day) and market would turn down. We went to almost 12,600. Then your comment tonight is “ the 12.1/ 13 projection nailed the NDX move” . What? Would have been helpful yesterday to know that. And tonight to say “10 more points in SPX and we should turn down” is just hopeful , hopeful for some kind of reversal. No one knows the future, but also one knows the market isn’t always about to break down 20-30-40% , which has been SMC position since Oct lows. It is exhausting being bearish most of the days( and full of losses). Is this normal for bear market to have NDX go back above 200dma ? ( and SPX today) not like 2000 or 2007 from what I recall

Increasingly feeling the same, that the forecasts have missed the mark and then the videos go into lengthy wishy washy "ifs" and "buts" to make the narrative fit any possible future movement. If we didn't go into so many "ifs" and "buts", there'd be no need for videos longer than 2 minutes per day, just to confirm whether or not we're still trending in the forecasted direction. I can see from the comments that people are confused, which is a telltale sign of confusing forecasts. My suggestion would be to stick to the long-term and forgot about tiny day-to-day movements.

Last updated

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

daniel039209 said:

Real question ; after such a powerful move in the biggest stocks in the world do you really think the whole market is going to drop tomorrow ? 85% up day ? Is that a failed rally in your experience ? Most likely not

daniel039209 said:

Just a couple of observations; the NDX is outperforming all year, not just the 7% advance over last 4 days. You had said yesterday that it looked like the trend lines would stop the NDX 12,300 ( up 20 pts on day) and market would turn down. We went to almost 12,600. Then your comment tonight is “ the 12.1/ 13 projection nailed the NDX move” . What? Would have been helpful yesterday to know that. And tonight to say “10 more points in SPX and we should turn down” is just hopeful , hopeful for some kind of reversal. No one knows the future, but also one knows the market isn’t always about to break down 20-30-40% , which has been SMC position since Oct lows. It is exhausting being bearish most of the days( and full of losses). Is this normal for bear market to have NDX go back above 200dma ? ( and SPX today) not like 2000 or 2007 from what I recall

Daniel Yes! ESM did a .382 retracement yesterday where traders went short. We should see a tradable low March 21-23 window. Markets aren’t buying Treas Sec Yellen Banks ok. Buckle Up ~Dorothy

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

Excellent Update Peter

Thanks, ~Dorothy

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

brian1469 said:

Got a put spread on NVDA here I have been waiting for this area since 107 to get short again

Also the financials are falling apart again. Feeling like the projections might be right again, this could be it for it for this sugar rush counter move. I'm still waiting to get more put on for the downside because of that stupid FED meeting next week

Got more short on the QQQ's basing it on the false breakout

dcarter8883312 said:

daniel039209 said:

Real question ; after such a powerful move in the biggest stocks in the world do you really think the whole market is going to drop tomorrow ? 85% up day ? Is that a failed rally in your experience ? Most likely not

daniel039209 said:

Just a couple of observations; the NDX is outperforming all year, not just the 7% advance over last 4 days. You had said yesterday that it looked like the trend lines would stop the NDX 12,300 ( up 20 pts on day) and market would turn down. We went to almost 12,600. Then your comment tonight is “ the 12.1/ 13 projection nailed the NDX move” . What? Would have been helpful yesterday to know that. And tonight to say “10 more points in SPX and we should turn down” is just hopeful , hopeful for some kind of reversal. No one knows the future, but also one knows the market isn’t always about to break down 20-30-40% , which has been SMC position since Oct lows. It is exhausting being bearish most of the days( and full of losses). Is this normal for bear market to have NDX go back above 200dma ? ( and SPX today) not like 2000 or 2007 from what I recall

Daniel Yes! ESM did a .382 retracement yesterday where traders went short. We should see a tradable low March 21-23 window. Markets aren’t buying Treas Sec Yellen Banks ok. Buckle Up ~Dorothy

Brian, NVDA has gone from weak to strong. I’m not saying it cannot go down better to short weak Nasdaq stocks Look at ROKU as a short connected to SVB. Barron’s article

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

I’ve long watched AAPL to predict SPX. Yesterday AAPL hit .618 retracement & is reversing today. Apple is #1 weighting 7.1% So if APPL corrects SPX can fall. #2 MSFT 6% weighting. AMZN 3.7% , TSLA 2.4%, GOOGL (A) 2.2%, GOOG (C) 2%, NVDA 1.8%, BRK.B 1.7%, META 1.3% & UNH 1.3%.

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

Looking for short: CAT is in free fall

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

Looking for short: CAT is in free fall

scott4206
scott4206

Folks, there is no one out there that is going to get this 100%, if so we would all be rich and retired. You have to take his projections with other analysts as well as the news cycles. If you expecting perfection, you're delusional.

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

brian1469 said:

dcarter8883312 said:

brian1469 said:

Got a put spread on NVDA here I have been waiting for this area since 107 to get short again

Also the financials are falling apart again. Feeling like the projections might be right again, this could be it for it for this sugar rush counter move. I'm still waiting to get more put on for the downside because of that stupid FED meeting next week

Got more short on the QQQ's basing it on the false breakout

dcarter8883312 said:

daniel039209 said:

Real question ; after such a powerful move in the biggest stocks in the world do you really think the whole market is going to drop tomorrow ? 85% up day ? Is that a failed rally in your experience ? Most likely not

daniel039209 said:

Just a couple of observations; the NDX is outperforming all year, not just the 7% advance over last 4 days. You had said yesterday that it looked like the trend lines would stop the NDX 12,300 ( up 20 pts on day) and market would turn down. We went to almost 12,600. Then your comment tonight is “ the 12.1/ 13 projection nailed the NDX move” . What? Would have been helpful yesterday to know that. And tonight to say “10 more points in SPX and we should turn down” is just hopeful , hopeful for some kind of reversal. No one knows the future, but also one knows the market isn’t always about to break down 20-30-40% , which has been SMC position since Oct lows. It is exhausting being bearish most of the days( and full of losses). Is this normal for bear market to have NDX go back above 200dma ? ( and SPX today) not like 2000 or 2007 from what I recall

Daniel Yes! ESM did a .382 retracement yesterday where traders went short. We should see a tradable low March 21-23 window. Markets aren’t buying Treas Sec Yellen Banks ok. Buckle Up ~Dorothy

Brian, NVDA has gone from weak to strong. I’m not saying it cannot go down better to short weak Nasdaq stocks Look at ROKU as a short connected to SVB. Barron’s article

NVDA was the most shorted stock in the tech sector when we were shorting it on here. I got out at 107. I was looking for all the shorts to get unwound they have now that it has closed the gap 258. Everybody is long what could go wrong. It is also very stretched from the 10EMA on the weekly. ROKU just doesn't have much meat on the bone for me

Brian, I know what you mean. My point was short a weak stock. I love trading NVDA. I’m not saying NVDA can’t go down. I will be looking to go long NVDA on March 21st, 22nd or 23rd when I’m convinced low in. You look for what stocks go down least they will be leadership in next rally in this bear market. End of March — April could be BIG RALLY. Look at CAT It’s in free fall looks like Gap Down Monday on Open.
~Dorothy

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀 Happy St Patrick’s Day Wishing All Good Luck 🍀 ~Dorothy

Last updated

Martijn
Martijn

Hi Peter, could you look at GLD. I don't see any higher projections.

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

UNBELIEVABLE !

I see on Eliades' Cycle Price Projections Web App the 24.2 HAS BEEN MET so WHY DO YOU USE $ES.F daily and your Eliades' Cycle Price Projections Web App USES FUTURES YOU SAY UNMET. YOUR SOFTWARE SAYS MET.

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

Schooling 📖XXSPOWER127 CME: ESF is used on expiration day for purpose of fixing calculation of options expiring

I have to ask XXSPower you only post negative comments toward Peter so I’m curious why you keep tracking his updates? Follow software ACT PLACE ORDERS BASED ON YOUR INTERPRETATION of software & take responsibility IF YOU LOSE 💲💲‼️ ~Dorothy

XXSPOWER127 said: UNBELIEVABLE !

I see on Eliades' Cycle Price Projections Web App the 24.2 HAS BEEN MET so WHY DO YOU USE $ES.F daily and your Eliades' Cycle Price Projections Web App USES FUTURES YOU SAY UNMET. YOUR SOFTWARE SAYS MET.

XXSPOWER127 said:

UNBELIEVABLE !

I see on Eliades' Cycle Price Projections Web App the 24.2 HAS BEEN MET so WHY DO YOU USE $ES.F daily and your Eliades' Cycle Price Projections Web App USES FUTURES YOU SAY UNMET. YOUR SOFTWARE SAYS MET.

XXSPOWER127 said:

UNBELIEVABLE !

I see on Eliades' Cycle Price Projections Web App the 24.2 HAS BEEN MET so WHY DO YOU USE $ES.F daily and your Eliades' Cycle Price Projections Web App USES FUTURES YOU SAY UNMET. YOUR SOFTWARE SAYS MET.

treyrhodes51591
treyrhodes51591

Have you received weekend update yet

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