SMC Update 3-2-26

Mon, 03/02/2026 Monday, 03/02/2026 4:36 PM PST


Comments (3)
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divitogary475584
divitogary475584

Peter in 1987 the market had topped and made it's first decline. Then a corrective ABC followed,and another decline. The next day a strong rally followed for 1 day. After that one day wonder the crash sequence followed. See the German DAX and the Nikkei 225 today which did not rally. This Peutz crash window stays open till the first few days of April. Good Luck and Thank you. Crashes happen when the unexpected becomes reality and fear sets in. Also look at the daily chart on the HYG. Credit spreads are widening.

rafe.thrasher5229
rafe.thrasher5229

Peter, I think I already know the answer to this but am curious to hear your explanation. With your price projections, have you ever used them on shorter timeframes such as 1 hour, 2 hour, 15 minute etc.? For instance, on the SP500, with today's move, we went down to important price levels which were slightly below your daily price projection targets. We have since looped back up and in my estimation will likely turn down and finish lower for the day around 6780 or so. Anyhow, I ask because you have shown that without a drop and loop back on that lower price projections cannot be had. What if the loop occurs in the hourly timeframe? Will that allow for lower price projections? On the daily chart, my answer would be of course no. However, if one were to look at an hourly price projection chart, would lower price projections be seen / projected?

Peter Eliades
Peter Eliades

rafe.thrasher5229 said:

Peter, I think I already know the answer to this but am curious to hear your explanation. With your price projections, have you ever used them on shorter timeframes such as 1 hour, 2 hour, 15 minute etc.? For instance, on the SP500, with today's move, we went down to important price levels which were slightly below your daily price projection targets. We have since looped back up and in my estimation will likely turn down and finish lower for the day around 6780 or so. Anyhow, I ask because you have shown that without a drop and loop back on that lower price projections cannot be had. What if the loop occurs in the hourly timeframe? Will that allow for lower price projections? On the daily chart, my answer would be of course no. However, if one were to look at an hourly price projection chart, would lower price projections be seen / projected?

Rafe, as you well know, watching the updates, we have default offsets on our software for weekly, daily, 65 minute cash charts and 30 minute cash charts and 27 minute futures charts. As to the possibility of a loop projection to take us to or towards dramatically lower projections, I hope to discuss that possibility on tomorrow's update.

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