SMC Update 3-21-22

what i often find difficult is that your interpretations are usually slanted bearish. you were bearish last week and after Fed day, you were pretty certain the market would open THursday and immediately drop. Then on Friday you allowed for maybe another attempt to upside but a failure and drop. So, when you say, we are looking at a potential major failure of this 6+% rally, and invoke a VIX buy signal and the NDX even with a bullish candle, you say we need to drop 600-700 points to break the midpoint below the lines. if we drop 600points i will fully believe this process. its too hard to be bearish in face of 6% index move and ?20%-(FB) gain, 39%(SQ)on individual names, while waiting for another level to fail, which we havent thus far, and either miss up moves or worse sit in a short position waiting for "inevitable downturn". we are in a huge trading range, my opin.

daniel039209 said:

what i often find difficult is that your interpretations are usually slanted bearish. you were bearish last week and after Fed day, you were pretty certain the market would open THursday and immediately drop. Then on Friday you allowed for maybe another attempt to upside but a failure and drop. So, when you say, we are looking at a potential major failure of this 6+% rally, and invoke a VIX buy signal and the NDX even with a bullish candle, you say we need to drop 600-700 points to break the midpoint below the lines. if we drop 600points i will fully believe this process. its too hard to be bearish in face of 6% index move and ?20%-(FB) gain, 39%(SQ)on individual names, while waiting for another level to fail, which we havent thus far, and either miss up moves or worse sit in a short position waiting for "inevitable downturn". we are in a huge trading range, my opin. CAN U SAY PERMABEAR? I can. He has been PERMABEAR since I signed on.. you need to play both sides in this twisted market. He just sits in his bare suit all day meanwhile back at the ranch several thousand points have ripped on the NASDAQ and several hundred points have ripped on the SNP. Yes we might have a pull back but we’re not going back to 4000.. MARTY ZWEIG IS THE BOSS.

XXSPOWER127 said:

daniel039209 said:

what i often find difficult is that your interpretations are usually slanted bearish. you were bearish last week and after Fed day, you were pretty certain the market would open THursday and immediately drop. Then on Friday you allowed for maybe another attempt to upside but a failure and drop. So, when you say, we are looking at a potential major failure of this 6+% rally, and invoke a VIX buy signal and the NDX even with a bullish candle, you say we need to drop 600-700 points to break the midpoint below the lines. if we drop 600points i will fully believe this process. its too hard to be bearish in face of 6% index move and ?20%-(FB) gain, 39%(SQ)on individual names, while waiting for another level to fail, which we havent thus far, and either miss up moves or worse sit in a short position waiting for "inevitable downturn". we are in a huge trading range, my opin. CAN U SAY PERMABEAR? I can. He has been PERMABEAR since I signed on.. you need to play both sides in this twisted market. He just sits in his bare suit all day meanwhile back at the ranch several thousand points have ripped on the NASDAQ and several hundred points have ripped on the SNP. Yes we might have a pull back but we’re not going back to 4000.. MARTY ZWEIG IS THE BOSS.

agree, i said similar last week, there is no big bear decline to make market "undervalued" it doesnt mean we cant challenge some index lows, but there are hundreds of stocks that will NOT go to lows if averages sink, that will be another huge buying oppty ( less new lows,etc) probably in the fall. peter did mention bottoming of 20 yr cycle, hope it wasnt 3/14 .we are up 1700 NDX points that is staggering rally . i dont know where we pull back from. but cant be a daily, "we are about to fail and go down". costs to that kind of positioning are very high