Peter I feel like that moving average you have on there gives about 2 weeks or so of time that it can break above or below to make up its mind. Those uptrends broke it by less and the change in trend to a downtrend broke it by more. Maybe it acts different in this bearish retracement but it seems to me that it could break it a little but not by much, then go back below and continue down. As long as it doesn't break it by much. In other words I don't see a continuation of a bull market just because it breaks the line by the same magnitude as those uptrends. maybe I am wrong but what if in the grand scheme of things it is making a double top like in 2008 which took about a year to actually start crashing from the all time high in 2007. Aren't most of the real bear markets that last a while take a longer time to form? Maybe that is why in 1987 and Covid crash they recovered so quick because they happened so quick. 1929 of course was an exception as it lasted the longest but no Fed intervention.

Maybe when the $SPX only wet down ? 11% and now is down 3.44% on year is most certainly not/never was a bear market. You had a bear market in the most expensive p/e stocks. Not the big ones

Thanks Peter! Looks like Bidens release of oil should get us a good pop to end the quarter. Feel like we should know more once the end of the quarter is out of the way.

Also I will say it again the 1973-74 analog that you mentioned at the beginning of January feels like this could be a bear market like that one. It had a lot of sideways for 1973 in it just like 2022 has a lot of sideways so far

Last updated 2 years ago