I know the vix has you convinced we are at a turn, but i think its dangerous to ignore the projections. its giving you a bearish tilt that the projections are not giving you. all markets still have higher overhead projections. take the iwm that you looked at today, if we hit the 181, that will almost guarantee a 193 projection and likely up to 203 which is a 50% retrace. btw, i agree we are in a bear, but a 50% or, 62-78.6% retrace from from the bottom is "normal" in a bear market. And qqq has projections all the way up to the 62% retrace area. Before you object because of the lower long term projections, let me point out that none of these higher upside projections that are significantly higher will invalidate the lower projections. So, maybe the projections are right- we are still in a bear market rally with higher to go. it certainly jives with my elliot count. As for the vix, its very possible that this time is different than what your great analysis of it and it will bottom all the way down near the nov and jan market highs. This would line up well with the idea that this is a bigger and slower bear than we are used to. I have held that from the beginning, as well a few others, including you I believe? Some food for thought. Meanwhile, short term we still have the chance to hit the qqq 311 projection for one last the bottom of this sideways range before the bear rally continues.

Last updated 2 years ago

brian1469 said:

andrewturchindmd379 said:

I know the vix has you convinced we are at a turn, but i think its dangerous to ignore the projections. its giving you a bearish tilt that the projections are not giving you. all markets still have higher overhead projections. take the iwm that you looked at today, if we hit the 181, that will almost guarantee a 193 projection and likely up to 203 which is a 50% retrace. btw, i agree we are in a bear, but a 50% or, 62-78.6% retrace from from the bottom is "normal" in a bear market. And qqq has projections all the way up to the 62% retrace area. Before you object because of the lower long term projections, let me point out that none of these higher upside projections that are significantly higher will invalidate the lower projections. So, maybe the projections are right- we are still in a bear market rally with higher to go. it certainly jives with my elliot count. As for the vix, its very possible that this time is different than what your great analysis of it and it will bottom all the way down near the nov and jan market highs. This would line up well with the idea that this is a bigger and slower bear than we are used to. I have held that from the beginning, as well a few others, including you I believe? Some food for thought. Meanwhile, short term we still have the chance to hit the qqq 311 projection for one last the bottom of this sideways range before the bear rally continues.

On the ES all we need is a move up to 4233-56 and we satisfy all the daily and weekly projections.

Plus we would close the gap on the SPX then.

The 48 would still be there but that is getting easier to invalidate if we get a move down after hitting the other ones. I wish we could just get up there and get it over with. The bulls are as worthless as the bears in this market

62% retrace of spx is 4320 and we have projections all the way up to 4650ish. This is in the range of the 62-78% deep retrace I expect for a wave 2. In that range in june and there will be no bears left and the next leg down will surprise everyone as usual.

andrewturchindmd379 said:

brian1469 said:

andrewturchindmd379 said:

I know the vix has you convinced we are at a turn, but i think its dangerous to ignore the projections. its giving you a bearish tilt that the projections are not giving you. all markets still have higher overhead projections. take the iwm that you looked at today, if we hit the 181, that will almost guarantee a 193 projection and likely up to 203 which is a 50% retrace. btw, i agree we are in a bear, but a 50% or, 62-78.6% retrace from from the bottom is "normal" in a bear market. And qqq has projections all the way up to the 62% retrace area. Before you object because of the lower long term projections, let me point out that none of these higher upside projections that are significantly higher will invalidate the lower projections. So, maybe the projections are right- we are still in a bear market rally with higher to go. it certainly jives with my elliot count. As for the vix, its very possible that this time is different than what your great analysis of it and it will bottom all the way down near the nov and jan market highs. This would line up well with the idea that this is a bigger and slower bear than we are used to. I have held that from the beginning, as well a few others, including you I believe? Some food for thought. Meanwhile, short term we still have the chance to hit the qqq 311 projection for one last the bottom of this sideways range before the bear rally continues.

On the ES all we need is a move up to 4233-56 and we satisfy all the daily and weekly projections.

Plus we would close the gap on the SPX then.

The 48 would still be there but that is getting easier to invalidate if we get a move down after hitting the other ones. I wish we could just get up there and get it over with. The bulls are as worthless as the bears in this market

62% retrace of spx is 4320 and we have projections all the way up to 4650ish. This is in the range of the 62-78% deep retrace I expect for a wave 2. In that range in june and there will be no bears left and the next leg down will surprise everyone as usual.

I have a similar ewave count, and agree that it could easily retrace 78% of the entire move down. Still, Im surprised by the lack of reaction at SPX 4150 which is the 50% Fib retrace. Makes me wonder what type of pattern the "2" wave is forming here.

there is another bearish configuration on the vix. when the spread between current vix and the 3 month vix has a spread greater than 3.39 which is the case as of the end of last week you are either at a top or the top was 1-3 days before or after that reading.

Thanks Peter

Next stop 4200 on /ES and over 13,300 on /NQ meanwhile back at the ranch

MORE $VIX STORIES

YAWN

WEDGES

MOONS

DOROTHY TURN DATES

SPEED RESISTANCE LINES

HEY ... SHEEP - CHECK OUT THE WEEKLY 110 REMEMBER ? BIG YUGGGEE DOWNSIDE ?

ABOUT TO BE

IN VAL EEEE DATED..

BAZINGAA

Bears been calling the top EVERY DAY .. EVERY SINGLE DAY since the lows in MARCH GO ON FINTWIT AND IT IS A BUNCH OF LOONS ALL TALKING ABOUT THE $VIX OR $VXX OR $UVXY HE GOT CAUGHT UP IN IT SAD SOMEONE WHO HAS 50 YEARS !!! OF MARKET EXPERIENCE KNOWS HE SHOULD BE A CONTRARIAN.
CEST LA VIE '

OR IN GREEK

ΕΤΣΙ ΕΙΝΑΙ Η ΖΩΗ !!!!

If yesterday were the 1st or 9th or even 11th day of being so negative and bearish, it would/could be understandable. Doesnt the percentage change (UP) in stocks and indices cause you to see where your negative outlook ( looking for acceleration down since last October & subsequent "tops' most of way up) has been wrong? Not early, wrong. Bear market rally gains are just as good as bull market gains. To be negative for 13% in SPX and 27% in NDX rallies, is really a hard pill to swallow. Have to rethink what your bearish stance is based on. Dont say 'Hussman" please. You couldnt physically be short this whole time. You would be destroyed on an investment basis. So, its kind of just a narrative that you are comfortable going on You Tube, Neil Cavuto's program. Bearishness and doom and gloom sell, is what my friend Larry Williams says. The bullish calls are just chalked up as "pollyannic".

Last updated 2 years ago

RE: XXSPOWER127

Peter— Please ban this condescending MOFO— If he’s so clucking smart— let him start his own KNOW-IT-ALL service, instead of hijacking yours so he can spout his worthless comments . Who is this blithering idiot. What’s is his fabulous track-record. I WOULD BAN HIM IMMEDIATELY— Thank you Peter — you are one of my all time favorites—!!!!

Last updated 2 years ago

Over the last 40+ years of trading stocks & futures— I would come across valuable contrarian indicators for major tops and bottoms. I’m going to name my new INDICATOR : THE BLITHERING IDIOT INDICATOR in honor of XXSPOWER127 XXSPOWER127 XXSPOWER127 XXSPOWER127 XXSPOWER127

He made me a lot of money today. Thank you XXSPOWER127 You are my new friend.

Everytime VIX has touched this trendline it has gone sideways and bounced off it for at least 3 weeks (21 days) with the average being 28 days (1 month) before a substantial breakout https://www.tradingview.com/x/7paKxpmc/

Yesterday for the first time in 5years, it opened a weekly candle below the trendline

https://www.tradingview.com/x/hlk9CP0i/

$18 being the crucial level if we are to close back above the trendline this week.

We have 10 days left before the monthly candle closes, getting back above the 18 level would be crucial if we're going to see a 'sell in may' event https://www.tradingview.com/x/Fq5AYfMj/

gjlehmann12951 said:

RE: XXSPOWER127

Peter— Please ban this condescending MOFO— If he’s so clucking smart— let him start his own KNOW-IT-ALL service, instead of hijacking yours so he can spout his worthless comments . Who is this blithering idiot. What’s is his fabulous track-record. I WOULD BAN HIM IMMEDIATELY— Thank you Peter — you are one of my all time favorites—!!!!

LOL !!!

HEY @gjlehmann12951 EVER HEAR OF FREEDOM OF SPEECH?
I have been correct for the last years on here when Peter E does not follow the PROJECTIONS AND ALL KNOW IT

SO SHUT your pie hole

FREEDOM USA BABY we dont live in BAGDAD

brian1469 said:

Went short /M2K and SPX

IWM hit its upside projections over night don't know if that counts but it looks good to me

GUESS you have not looked at

@RTY 7/8 @RTY 12.1/

@EMD 7/8 @EMD 12.1

WE GO

HIGHER !!!!

brian1469 said:

XXSPOWER127 said:

brian1469 said:

Went short /M2K and SPX

IWM hit its upside projections over night don't know if that counts but it looks good to me

GUESS you have not looked at

@RTY 7/8 @RTY 12.1/

@EMD 7/8 @EMD 12.1

WE GO

HIGHER !!!!

Why are you yelling at me the IWM 7/8 got hit overnight and the 12/13 has too.

I don't even know what EMD is?

Also both trades have worked so far. It would be nice if you shared some of your trades since you have all the answers and are never wrong

wrong

check @rty

check @emd

Market is not crashing any time soon. Major earnings next week, dips getting bought… Netflix for example… drops 10% just to get bought right up. But nooooo no one controls the market right…?