SMC Update 4-19-23

04/19/2023


Comments (14)
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daniel039209
daniel039209

Bing negative or possibly short from NDX <11,000 , up to >13,150 ish- is a hole you cannot dig out of. Even if we get a big sell off here ,12,520 is where last leg started up. Would take a lot of really bad news/ earnings from biggest companies on planet. Unless we are going to 9000,8000? NDX , almost impossible to replace losses ( never mind the missed long opportunities while way up from November)

brian1469
brian1469

daniel039209 said:

Bing negative or possibly short from NDX <11,000 , up to >13,150 ish- is a hole you cannot dig out of. Even if we get a big sell off here ,12,520 is where last leg started up. Would take a lot of really bad news/ earnings from biggest companies on planet. Unless we are going to 9000,8000? NDX , almost impossible to replace losses ( never mind the missed long opportunities while way up from November)

This is why you need to make your own decisions when it comes to putting your money to work.

Peter gives his opinion on what he thinks the market will do but it is our job to judge risk of our account and make actual decisions on what to do.

Also I don't have the software but by using the web app. Anybody that learns the system can make their own decisions off the projections on it. That is what I do. It helps when I don't always agree with Peter. Which is going to happen

Last updated

gjlehmann12951
gjlehmann12951

Understand this— Peter’s work is a TOOL — not the HOLY GRAIL. His work is brilliant— no one else does anything like this. But using it in conjunction with pattern analysis, sentiment, time cycles, moon cycles CAN BE DEADLY CORRECT. The KEY to making money in the markets. Is keeping losses small— LETTING PROFITS RUN. I’m a professional trader of 40+ years. Ive paid a lot of tuition to become successful at trading/investing. AMATEUR TRADERS TAKE QUICK PROFITS—AND LET LOSSES RUN. NO ONE HAS ALL OF THE ANSWERS. ANYONE ON HERE WHO CRITICIZES IS PROBABLY A LOSER OVER TIME. Good Luck, Gus

daniel039209
daniel039209

gjlehmann12951 said:

Understand this— Peter’s work is a TOOL — not the HOLY GRAIL. His work is brilliant— no one else does anything like this. But using it in conjunction with pattern analysis, sentiment, time cycles, moon cycles CAN BE DEADLY CORRECT. The KEY to making money in the markets. Is keeping losses small— LETTING PROFITS RUN. I’m a professional trader of 40+ years. Ive paid a lot of tuition to become successful at trading/investing. AMATEUR TRADERS TAKE QUICK PROFITS—AND LET LOSSES RUN. NO ONE HAS ALL OF THE ANSWERS. ANYONE ON HERE WHO CRITICIZES IS PROBABLY A LOSER OVER TIME. Good Luck, Gus

Do you think Peter, believing in his system has NOT been short the market for past its going on 6 months?

gjlehmann12951
gjlehmann12951

There is a lot more to this than short term chop moves— the MACRO says selling all rallies will make the MONEY. 300-400 points moves are catchable using different tools. The Public that is trading is extremely bullish. Pro’s have been shorting this market since January. One of my mentors — always said— WHERE IS THE FUEL FOR A MAJOR BULL MARKET TO START. Tell me !! Economy is weakening— inflation is weakening. It’s not happening!!!!

Last updated

daniel039209
daniel039209

gjlehmann12951 said:

There is a lot more to this than short term chop moves— the MACRO says selling all rallies will make the MONEY. 300-400 points moves are catchable using different tools. The Public that is trading is extremely bullish. Pro’s have been shorting this market since January. One of my mentors — always said— WHERE IS THE FUEL FOR A MAJOR BULL MARKET TO START. Tell me !! Economy is weakening— inflation is weakening. It’s not happening!!!!

"economy is weakening" correct ! do you think that is why the market went down last year>? with rates shifting higher, econ will eventually weaken. Do you think NDX rallying 25-28% is a good move? or you dont participate because its a " bear rally" and that money long is no good??

even if mkt sells off 5-7% it will get u back to March 15-17 levels.. even if he is "right" that "this is the top" he is still wrong. Like every bearish strategist and Hussman( been a bear since 2014 probably) ONe of my mentors said " do you want to be RIGHT or make money?" Peter just wants to be right. and BEarish commentary and crash warnings SELL subscriptions and books better than BULLISH..thats a fact

gjlehmann12951
gjlehmann12951

To : daniel039209

Let’s keep this so simple. You need action so you trade a lot— usually with mixed results. NO ONE CAN TRADE A LOT AND CONSISTENTLY MAKE MONEY. OR You learn how to MACRO POSITION MARKETS. Get that trade right FIRST. THEN Trade around that core position using various instruments, such as BULLISH OR BEARISH ETF’s or FUTURES— USE TIME CYLES to cover up or go naked. YOU WILL MAKE FAR MORE PROFITS SITTING THAN TRADING. PETER’s info is valuable if you manage your trades & emotions.

daniel039209
daniel039209

gjlehmann12951 said:

To : daniel039209

Let’s keep this so simple. You need action so you trade a lot— usually with mixed results. NO ONE CAN TRADE A LOT AND CONSISTENTLY MAKE MONEY. OR You learn how to MACRO POSITION MARKETS. Get that trade right FIRST. THEN Trade around that core position using various instruments, such as BULLISH OR BEARISH ETF’s or FUTURES— USE TIME CYLES to cover up or go naked. YOU WILL MAKE FAR MORE PROFITS SITTING THAN TRADING. PETER’s info is valuable if you manage your trades & emotions.

Agreeed, Im just saying.using peters signals/info and ignoring actual price changes in leading stocks, would have left you looking for " a high" every week for 6 months. And that shapes the dialogue in here; multiple people parroting in ":this is the top. Today is the high. Cycles peak here" All BS as high of year was just happening last 8 days. There is no denying that. He has a bias and will find a new moving average or a new line from 2014 low to shape his view. Even if market drops- would have to fall 20% plus to get back to where it all started. Now , people will turn BULLISH at kind of the wrong time. Thats what the market does best. I have traded for as long as you. I do like all info, and when it is consistently right or wrong, I know what to do

gjlehmann12951
gjlehmann12951

Amen — I do understand.

stockninja
stockninja

Hi Peter, its 4/20/23, and Tesla earnings are out and stock moving. If you do have time in today's video would it be possible to see what are the new projections for TSLA. Thank you!

brian1469
brian1469

Well had today the 20th as a turn date. Looks like we could of started something we will see.

In my real career I sell lubricants and I talked to a OTR Trucking customer today.

Trucking is pretty much in a depression. He told me lots of owner operators are dropping off there trucks back at the dealers. Can't make the money to pay for them.

Don't know how we are going to be off to new highs with a trucking industry like this

thomblas2051
thomblas2051

Peter, next week the juggernauts are reporting can you including Amazon,Facebook, google, projection in your weekend update. These heavy market movers could foreshadow the trend all throughout the earning season

thomblas2051
thomblas2051

thomblas2051 said:

Peter, next week the juggernauts are reporting can you including Amazon,Facebook, google, projection in your weekend update. These heavy market movers could foreshadow the trend all throughout the earning season

Including in the web app Facebook, microsoft, google, and at the very least Apple, Tesla, nivida would be an appropriate move to help your subscribers navigate this market

gjlehmann12951
gjlehmann12951

In late 2007 when Subprime Mortgages and CDS’s were hitting the radar screen, there was not one Regulator or Banker worried about a panic. It wasn’t until the Bears Stern disaster that triggered the beginning of the end. Even Bernanke said at that time it was only $100 Billion problem. Well the rest was history. The Fed pumped in $4 Trillion to save the system & raised deposit insurance to $250,000. This was then. Today— We have a problem with mortgages but not residential. It’s Commercial Real Estate Loans. It’s a $3 Trillion problem for Banks. Particularly small to midsize ones. They have over 70% of all commercial real estate loans on their books. They are beginning to default. The losses on these loans are far greater than their losses on their Treasury Bond portfolios. We have a credit based economy. ALL LOANS will be more difficult to acquire as the year progresses. THE BANKING PROBLEM is the BLACK SWAN EVENT. And the market gurus are saying we will have a SOFT LANDING. Market trading at a 19 PE is absurd. I would be raising cash from all asset classes. The Recession will take no prisoners. I didn’t make this up— these are facts that are in black and white. Research what I’m saying. Gus

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