SMC Update 5-15-23

05/15/2023


Comments (6)
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daniel039209
daniel039209

"congratulations"? Im confused. Following bearish forecast for 6-7 months now would have you lose over 30% buying inverse NASDQ etfs. Is this 'bear market action"? NO. Bear market rallies are violent and then collapse -like the rallies that failed in 2022. Bull markets surge, go sideways, then go up to next plateau. we grind .06% higher , go down , grind back up. Im concerned , it doesnt matter if NDX falls all the way back to where we hit RESISTANCE and there was alot of "back patting" that day..that was 225 points LOWER on NDX. You would still be in a deficit, trading off of these "projections" Where is the intellectual honesty on how bearish/ missing one of the greatest tech rallies in 18 months SMC has been. a month ago it was "important time". 2 weeks ago,also, last week it was really important, now, its "lets wait and see" curious what were the other market technicians view at the CMT gathering in NYC late April. I know Larry W isnt bearish, I know Tom DeMark is not quite bearish yet. SMC has been growling bear since the Fall , doubling down in early Jan 2023 again in March, just at inopportune times every time. Im waiting all right, waiting for mea culpa

brian1469
brian1469

Daniel you are beating a dead horse just go long and quit all your crying. The market has been sideways since December so everybody is wrong at this point.

We got to the 13532.75 on the NQ the 7/8 was 13533 on it. I'm short from 13480

daniel039209
daniel039209

brian1469 said:

Daniel you are beating a dead horse just go long and quit all your crying. The market has been sideways since December so everybody is wrong at this point.

We got to the 13532.75 on the NQ the 7/8 was 13533 on it. I'm short from 13480

I dont buy at upper end of ranges, I'd rather scale into longs when market is making successive higher lows. I hear you, but will argue that "market is sideways" and NO ONE gets the "market" right. I focus more on individual stocks, but like an overlay of how the "market" is set up. I am crying and i am protesting the constant bearish stance. The selloffs for past 7 months have INCREASED bearish fodder. And then the comments from the subs in here all parrot or echo "this is the high'" "next tuesday at noon is the high", etc. Becomes an echo chamber. And to have been bearish while stocks go up 25-35 50-121% is just NOT wise market timing any which way you slice it. extremely disappointed and frustrated, as i put alot of faith in Peters work. And i frown on cherry picking the high of Feb 2 for proof "market hasnt moved" thats like saying " the market is up 5% from 1 year ago" - means little to nothing.

ericoh792283
ericoh792283

This is not bear market. This is grinding higher bull market. Peter has been wrong and he is so stubborn that he only sees what he wants to see

brian1469
brian1469

Well we got well into the 7/8 on the NQ today and back below it we only have the 96 left up at 13668 but I don't think we get up there from were we are.

Looking at the structure of the projections if we start going down from here we are set up good for a fall.

Now all we need is a debt ceiling deal so we can sell the news

brian1469
brian1469

szulc2639 said:

NDX has filled 2 gaps: 1) Large Gap down 8/19 to 8/22. 2) Into the smaller gap 8/18 to 8/19, the top of 8/18's bar is 13,553.28, today's high so far is 13,498.44. The move off the October lows appears to be a flat correction (3-3-5) against the 8/16 high. If the pattern is correct it can end at anytime under and slightly over the 8/16 high 13,720.91. When a flat is complete it reverses relatively quick to the length of time it took for the correction to take place, then back to the point of origin or lower. The risk here is approximately 300 NDX points or less. If filling the gap is what's going on here, then it should not exceed the bar preceding the gap and then the risk is approximately 54.84 points.

Thanks for bringing this up I had been eyeing that gap a while ago but been concentrating on the NQ since that is what I am trading. But it finally got filled today. We also closed above the weekly 100 SMA a peek above to fall below lets hope.

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