SMC Update 5-16-23

05/16/2023


Comments (22)
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simermeet4318
simermeet4318

Hello, I noticed we are in a diagonal wedge in what seems to be in a 5 wave count C corrective wave, and we could have peaked on May 1. Daily SPY chart: Upper trend line from September 12 connecting through April 18. Lowe Trend line October low connecting through April 26.

andrewturchindmd379
andrewturchindmd379

simermeet4318 said:

Hello, I noticed we are in a diagonal wedge in what seems to be in a 5 wave count C corrective wave, and we could have peaked on May 1. Daily SPY chart: Upper trend line from September 12 connecting through April 18. Lowe Trend line October low connecting through April 26.

simermeet4318 said:

Hello, I noticed we are in a diagonal wedge in what seems to be in a 5 wave count C corrective wave, and we could have peaked on May 1. Daily SPY chart: Upper trend line from September 12 connecting through April 18. Lowe Trend line October low connecting through April 26.

I looked for this formation. i couldn't find a diagonal wedge with trendlines connecting those dates.

andrewturchindmd379
andrewturchindmd379

andrewturchindmd379 said:

simermeet4318 said:

Hello, I noticed we are in a diagonal wedge in what seems to be in a 5 wave count C corrective wave, and we could have peaked on May 1. Daily SPY chart: Upper trend line from September 12 connecting through April 18. Lowe Trend line October low connecting through April 26.

simermeet4318 said:

Hello, I noticed we are in a diagonal wedge in what seems to be in a 5 wave count C corrective wave, and we could have peaked on May 1. Daily SPY chart: Upper trend line from September 12 connecting through April 18. Lowe Trend line October low connecting through April 26.

I looked for this formation. i couldn't find a diagonal wedge with trendlines connecting those dates.

the qqq have a rising wedge btw. different dates though.

escheuerman791
escheuerman791

Thank you Peter. I greatly appreciate your analysis. When you have time, could you look at projections on SLV please and thank you

daniel039209
daniel039209

one last comment on comments: NO one is really saying this is BULL market. Forget the " 20% off lows in NDX means bull", thats nonsense. BUT what has been a huge reluctance on SMC part is ignoring the moves above 10,20,50,200 day moving averages. And staying above those for way longer than any of the other 2 Bear market sample size you use. Total disregard for price. I can make money long or short in a Bull/Bear market it doesnt matter what you label it as. 15-28% moves in indices and 30-50-100% moves in stocks happen and are those huge gains no good because you think we are in a Bear Market? Come on,for real. No one commenting here is yelling "BULL MARKET". More in this room are always calling , looking for the top. Again, echo chamber=no value. The valid complaints/frustrations are the disregard of sector, price movement, a new trendline, a new "47, 51,182 trading day count" ,an anchored expectation of the VIX-(a forever DEPRECIATING every day ETF). Every week a "new" chance to forecast the END. You have to be the "lightning strike" to ever make a .05 being long or using the VIX. Wrong focus, sorry. I know you have 25 years research, but it was 2 occasions, and i would argue again, NO WHERE close to 2000 bubble valuations(QQQ had p/e of 200! Fact). Housing bubble 2007-09- we are NO WHERE close to that leverage in system. 3 huge banks just failed- the market dipped for 10 days, then raced right back up. Have an OPEN MIND is all i ask. Yeah, the market will have a 5% drop eventually, but so what. Until you take out that massive NDX BULL engulfing day around MArch 17th,we r straight up ~1000 ndx points- all declines have been bought. You seem to get more negative when market goes down 1% You cant be wrong for 15-30% moves and on a 5% pullback run victory laps to prove "you were right all along'' Like Hussman, like Prechter- bearish for years, impossible to believe that they have an important view for last 7-8 years. Or perma Bull like Tom Lee- who has been more right than all the other strategists and market timers. Tell us when Larry W or Tom Demark line up bearishly with your work and I will perk up in my chair.

daniel039209
daniel039209

Fact check: Jan 10th 2023 You Tube Super bearish video, talking about the vix ,etc NDX close 11,200. SPX 3919 We can also recall how fervently negative the calls were in OCt 2022 lows. SPX was 3600 Lets start with intellectual honesty, I think its more fair. To pick "feb 2 or April 1" as starting point of where you got bearish ?-and it used to be that NDX was leader, now we are switching horses to follow the equal weight spx or the Wilshire 5000. How many people trade those indices? Raise your hand. how about where is the 10day moving average ? 200 day? Is it negative that we are above them for so long, in a bear market?

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

HILARIOUS!!!!

Did the moon ๐ŸŒš thing work? How about the eclipse?

How about the speed resistance lines? Did they work?

How about the 45 training days? Did they work?

Oh, by the way, I noticed the VXX has lower projections. Do you want to talk about those?

I didn't think so!!

elchico714622
elchico714622

XXSPOWER127 said:

HILARIOUS!!!!

Did the moon ๐ŸŒš thing work? How about the eclipse?

How about the speed resistance lines? Did they work?

How about the 45 training days? Did they work?

Oh, by the way, I noticed the VXX has lower projections. Do you want to talk about those?

I didn't think so!!

Lol agree with you, my calls beautifully printing.

brian1469
brian1469

So close to hitting the 96 on the NQ at 13668. Finally getting the breakout and sounds like we are getting a debt resolution.

About time to hit the sell button. I added to my SPX put position here and will be looking to finally get a lot more on.

Still short the NQ from 13480 but had the intention we could get up here to the diagonal trend line and the 96 upper projection of 13668.

Nice we have now hit all the daily NQ targets we just got the 96 at the high of the day!

Just put on a QQQ long term put position

Last updated

ericoh792283
ericoh792283

Market keeps chugging along. While Peter keeps telling his subscribers that we already have topped and market is ready to crash!

ericoh792283
ericoh792283

Peter, you have done your subscribers disservice by putting your bear coat on the whole time from October low

brian1469
brian1469

elchico714622 said:

XXSPOWER127 said:

HILARIOUS!!!!

Did the moon ๐ŸŒš thing work? How about the eclipse?

How about the speed resistance lines? Did they work?

How about the 45 training days? Did they work?

Oh, by the way, I noticed the VXX has lower projections. Do you want to talk about those?

I didn't think so!!

Lol agree with you, my calls beautifully printing.

Are you closing them out into this strength or gonna let them ride?

elchico714622
elchico714622

brian1469 said:

elchico714622 said:

XXSPOWER127 said:

HILARIOUS!!!!

Did the moon ๐ŸŒš thing work? How about the eclipse?

How about the speed resistance lines? Did they work?

How about the 45 training days? Did they work?

Oh, by the way, I noticed the VXX has lower projections. Do you want to talk about those?

I didn't think so!!

Lol agree with you, my calls beautifully printing.

Are you closing them out into this strength or gonna let them ride?

Closing most, will buy longer term calls and buy dips until we get to the 12.1 13.8 offset on spy 4193-4202

brian1469
brian1469

elchico714622 said:

brian1469 said:

elchico714622 said:

XXSPOWER127 said:

HILARIOUS!!!!

Did the moon ๐ŸŒš thing work? How about the eclipse?

How about the speed resistance lines? Did they work?

How about the 45 training days? Did they work?

Oh, by the way, I noticed the VXX has lower projections. Do you want to talk about those?

I didn't think so!!

Lol agree with you, my calls beautifully printing.

Are you closing them out into this strength or gonna let them ride?

Closing most, will buy longer term calls and buy dips until we get to the 12.1 13.8 offset on spy 4193-4202

Great trade

rickjendz64
rickjendz64

The advance decline line is more or less a coincident indicator. It tells you where we are at the moment, not where we will be in the future. It DOES tell us that currently we are in no man's landing, with the lower highs and higher lows. UNTIL we break out this trading range of roughly 4100 to 4200, we must wait and see which direction we are heading. It could be explosive! I do NOT see any real chance of a crash at least until September/ October, so I see new highs by August sometime. While I am tentatively bullish, I will not get truly bullish until we break the downtrend line from the peak. We are in a trading range, waiting for the trend to show us the next big move. The next few months should be interesting to say the least!

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

Peter What would be helpful is even IF lower projection on NDX or SPX have been met please always click on projection window tell us upper projections. I donโ€™t have software Yet & Iโ€™m sure several subscribers are considering getting software.
NDX 7 . 8 what is upper projection? NDX 24. 2 What Is Upper projection?

ANYONE Were they met with todayโ€™s rally? Thanks ~ Dorothy

brian1469
brian1469

I believe that could be it for the NQ hit all daily upside projections

Need to close below 13562 diagonal trendline by the end of the week

Peter I am going to be amazed if the projection was 13668 and it hit 13669.25 for a top

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

WHY ARE YOU TRYING TO PIN THE TAIL AT THE TOP ? THE 96.8 / 110.6 IS NOT THE TOP HIGHER PROJECTION !!!

GO TO /NQ GOT TO WEEKLY GO TO MONTHLY THEN CHECK BACK 189/184

SEE THE HIGHER

THEN SEE

/ES MATCHES THEN SEE

@RTY

THEN SEE

$VXX LOWER THEN SEE $VXIM LOWER THEN SEE THE BIG BOYS $AAPL.$NVDA,$MSFT,META ALL PROJECT HIGHER

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

dcpavement242377 said:

no upside projections left on NQ 1 left on ES on the biggest off set 4220 is the bottom

WRONG !!!!!

LEARN HOW TO USE THE PROJECTIONS DONT TELL OTHERS #BULLCRAP

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

XXSPOWER127 said:

dcpavement242377 said:

no upside projections left on NQ 1 left on ES on the biggest off set 4220 is the bottom

WRONG !!!!!

LEARN HOW TO USE THE PROJECTIONS DONT TELL OTHERS #BULLCRAP

/NQ WEEKLY /NQ MONTHLY

/189.194

WHATS THAT ??????

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