Peter, can you please take a look at TLT? Thank you

i just realized, the market has rallied since the lows of October 2022, well over 2800 points. I dont believe there has been a week of anything BUT bearish outcomes, outlooks, "soon to turn down" calls on SMC. Have the other 2 Bear markets you compare this to rallied this much? and have they stayed ABOVE 40 week MA's this long? Just curious to those stats. And i see yesterday, there were HIGHER projections-NDX 13,400+. I dont like to buy "up 25% and 7 months into a rally". I think i will wait for a pullback. Even though you point out the SPX has barely moved as it hits the uptrend line( which defines that prices will always be higher as they hit bottom side of uptrend line), over last 15 days? Its not as if you got bearish at SPX 4042. SPX is up from 3550 in OCt 2022 and 3830 in Jan 2023 when you were on You Tube and TV "growling like bear". I saw this all the way thru - the market climbed wall of worry, till end of NOV 2021 , beginning Jan 2022. SMC was negative looking for elusive top from March 2021. AS long as we stay above major moving averages, there may be pockets of weakness, calling the direction of NDX & SPX and saying "end of rally" "top near" hasn't been a profitable strategy. I wonder if calling for 13,400 on NDX is first signs of acknowledging strength?

Thanks Peter!

I have a question looking at the structure of the projections we have a real good shot of getting the 100/110 in the ES and YM confirmed by the end of the month or beginning of June. We will then have the NQ. ES, YM, an IWM all with long term significantly lower projections.

My question is through your work through the years has this marked a turning point when they all confirm. If so do you feel like this is something we should be watching and waiting for.

Feels like the market could still hit most of the upside projections and this could still easily play out.

im sorry, just watching video now. and feel like corrections are needed : you didnt just get bearish on April 3rd, so why is that some "starting point"? And as far as "the VIX sells sometimes take a month to kick in" ; pretty sure in late last year and again in early Jan 2023 you were call the VIX "sell signal " indicator on media. and today, i see there are MULTIPLE upside targets that 'cant be ignored" . If anything, after spx 3600 to 4180 move and NOW we are aiming/focusing on 4211 ? Wow. Listen, the market is a hard thing to predict/forecast. Maybe its better with individual stocks? Noone is ever right on all 100 or 500 stocks moving at same time.. Never has happened , never will happen.

I’m gonna go with the higher projections and buy calls for tmw… ignoring the “I don’t think we will get there”

daniel039209 said:

i just realized, the market has rallied since the lows of October 2022, well over 2800 points. I dont believe there has been a week of anything BUT bearish outcomes, outlooks, "soon to turn down" calls on SMC. Have the other 2 Bear markets you compare this to rallied this much? and have they stayed ABOVE 40 week MA's this long? Just curious to those stats. And i see yesterday, there were HIGHER projections-NDX 13,400+. I dont like to buy "up 25% and 7 months into a rally". I think i will wait for a pullback. Even though you point out the SPX has barely moved as it hits the uptrend line( which defines that prices will always be higher as they hit bottom side of uptrend line), over last 15 days? Its not as if you got bearish at SPX 4042. SPX is up from 3550 in OCt 2022 and 3830 in Jan 2023 when you were on You Tube and TV "growling like bear". I saw this all the way thru - the market climbed wall of worry, till end of NOV 2021 , beginning Jan 2022. SMC was negative looking for elusive top from March 2021. AS long as we stay above major moving averages, there may be pockets of weakness, calling the direction of NDX & SPX and saying "end of rally" "top near" hasn't been a profitable strategy. I wonder if calling for 13,400 on NDX is first signs of acknowledging strength?

Last updated 4 months ago