SMC Update 6-10-21

06/10/2021


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Jeff
Jeff

Unfortunately this update doesn't help much. I only have small cap, international and sp 500 options for investment, so....I will assume that the higher upside for sp 500 is still in play? The advance decline line, which I don't believe you have discussed in a while, now negates your important top theory since it hasn't been diverging for quite a while? Obviously the software is a necessary component of this service.

chris_chapman255
chris_chapman255

Hi Peter, What is the % success rate of the new Nasdaq 100 projection. Thank You.

Hsiang76
Hsiang76

This is getting more and more bogus... if NDX is a leading indicator then there is bound to have a higher SPX projection at later point than the upper border of the longest term projection (Around SPX 4350). I don’t need a software to tell me that there are higher and higher targets in a bull market. The A/D line is also bogus interpretation... we used the sept2016 and feb2018 points to draw a channel, and as we prepare to make the story “sync” with higher projectionS, we simply move the anchor points of the AD line to data fit and let the index have more room before hitting the upper border.

bryansmith1751
bryansmith1751

Thanks for the Tesla update. Interesting stock.

Last updated

Peter Eliades
Peter Eliades

chris_chapman255 said:

Hi Peter, What is the % success rate of the new Nasdaq 100 projection. Thank You.

Good question, Chris. For past 2 years, 24.2-27.6 offsets showed upside success of 100% (4 for 4).4 Years 63.6% but improved to 81.8% with 30%ATR subtracted from lower level of projection...6 years 65%---improves to 80% with 40% ATR reduction 8 years 69%---improves to 83% with 40% ATR reduction 10Years 73%...improves to 83.8% with 40% ATR. Based on the ATR (176.14) yesterday when the projection was confirmed, that would mean subtracting 40% of 176.14 from the lower end of the projection, giving us a percentage of 83.8% that the new lower end of 14547.54 would be reached based on the last 10 years of data...>chris_chapman255 said:

Hi Peter, What is the % success rate of the new Nasdaq 100 projection. Thank You.

bryansmith1751
bryansmith1751

Just got the software. It's has very different view for me in Trade Station than what Peter's looking at. Even more disturbing is that I'm getting different results. I don't show any downside projections on Tesla that haven't been met and I show several upside projections on Tesla. I'll have to read through the manual this weekend.

jshemanski49196
jshemanski49196

Hi Peter,
Would it be safe to say that the NDX has higher targets, but the IWM (Russell) does not? Seems unlikely that these two indexes would diverge to any large extent.

chris_chapman255
chris_chapman255

Peter, thank you very much for your comprehensive reply.

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