My apologies for the late appearance of today's update, especially for those in later time zones. I had another doctor's appointment in town which is around an hour away, and the time was all that was available even though not convenient for doing the update...

We are about to crash into late-August, COVID style. Mark. My. Words.

josephk4072 said:

We are about to crash into late-August, COVID style. Mark. My. Words.

do you think it is important, that the major divergence and weak A/D just eliminated?? peter harped on how bad breadth was. It just made a new high on cumulative A/D with the 5.77:1 ratio yesterday? Agree, it pushes out any topping process a little bit

I think the rotation might mean something but who knows when. Not anytime in past 16 months has it been negative, even though 98% of this commentary has been very negative.

Just don't call it a Black Swan when it happens.

I dont exactly recall, but the Dow Jones Transports just rallied 993 points in 4 days~6.7% gain. Did Peter like the transports or was negative vs the SPX as they were under the 200dma? Cant wait for that ratio refresh

daniel039209 said:

I dont exactly recall, but the Dow Jones Transports just rallied 993 points in 4 days~6.7% gain. Did Peter like the transports or was negative vs the SPX as they were under the 200dma? Cant wait for that ratio refresh

it's all meant to throw false positive signals to get the majority of people going long in the wrong direction. I.E - this small cap "breakout". It always amazes me that people don't investigate methods to detect false positive outcomes instead of just guessing or relying on probabilities.

josephk4072 said:

daniel039209 said:

Youre looking for a sell off , you noted. what's your; 1) trigger 2) or are you short now waiting for fall into late Aug you said? there def is little momentum loss in few big cap techs that i see, but that rotation to IWM and equal weight was massive. Might be a late in the game signal but when we make new all time highs, it is difficult to actually make money if short.

daniel039209 said:

josephk4072 said:

daniel039209 said:

Youre looking for a sell off , you noted. what's your; 1) trigger 2) or are you short now waiting for fall into late Aug you said? there def is little momentum loss in few big cap techs that i see, but that rotation to IWM and equal weight was massive. Might be a late in the game signal but when we make new all time highs, it is difficult to actually make money if short.

1) I have ideas, but it's not even remotely what I'm basing the drop on, so I won't get into it. You'll see the catalyst appear this week. 2) Yes, I am short now for the drop into late-August. 3) The move in IWM is not a permanent rotation, it is the release valve for liquidity while more intense selling begins elsewhere. This happens very frequently before large sell-offs, including before the Covid crash.

The DOW Weekly 10/10.1 is set to reach the projection 42135? (which was previously invalidated)

jillstain3084966 said:

The DOW Weekly 10/10.1 is set to reach the projection 42135? (which was previously invalidated)

well, i dont recall, but it seems like it is going there. The equal weight indices, the transports, the IWM, the Willshire, the A/D; they have all blown out to upside.. All that was focused on by Peter as "divergences, weakness" was just a condition of everyone piling into big cap tech. And it resolved itself. Now what is the negative call gonna be? that NVDA isnt $200 already?