SMC Update 7-19-21

07/19/2021


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spencerdavis2000
spencerdavis2000

thank you Peter for your expertise and guidance in everything. In my experience nothing is more accurate than your original cycles. I say original because nobody else interprets them like you do. The special thing about yours is it "calibrates" itself to the developing market because it focuses on Time and Price whereas most people's cycles only focus on Time. This is why they have to keep skewing their cycles and yours either touch or invalidate and also have stats to give confidence.
The best that is out there by far. Now we need to get this programmed for NinjaTrader so we don't have to deal with Tradestation.
I think you will like the accuracy of NinjaTraders trendlines much more as well staying put. :-)

Optimus
Optimus

spencerdavis2000 said:

thank you Peter for your expertise and guidance in everything. In my experience nothing is more accurate than your original cycles. I say original because nobody else interprets them like you do. The special thing about yours is it "calibrates" itself to the developing market because it focuses on Time and Price whereas most people's cycles only focus on Time. This is why they have to keep skewing their cycles and yours either touch or invalidate and also have stats to give confidence.
The best that is out there by far. Now we need to get this programmed for NinjaTrader so we don't have to deal with Tradestation.
I think you will like the accuracy of NinjaTraders trendlines much more as well staying put. :-)

Agreed. But, how does one interpret time using the software? These days projected price seems to occur so fast. Both ups and downs.

spencerdavis2000
spencerdavis2000

Optimus said:

spencerdavis2000 said:

thank you Peter for your expertise and guidance in everything. In my experience nothing is more accurate than your original cycles. I say original because nobody else interprets them like you do. The special thing about yours is it "calibrates" itself to the developing market because it focuses on Time and Price whereas most people's cycles only focus on Time. This is why they have to keep skewing their cycles and yours either touch or invalidate and also have stats to give confidence.
The best that is out there by far. Now we need to get this programmed for NinjaTrader so we don't have to deal with Tradestation.
I think you will like the accuracy of NinjaTraders trendlines much more as well staying put. :-)

Agreed. But, how does one interpret time using the software? These days projected price seems to occur so fast. Both ups and downs.

When you say how does one interpret time using the software, I think you meant my statement that Peter uses both Time and Price where as some only use Time?
How you use only time is to manually draw using the cycle arc type of tool which exists on every good software The problem with this is it requires redoing it when it doesn't line up It looks to me from my interpretation that Peter uses the actual path of the market and offsets it. Since the market chart is composed of both time and price it naturally involves both of them. Super genius and original if you ask me.

Optimus
Optimus

spencerdavis2000 said:

Optimus said:

spencerdavis2000 said:

thank you Peter for your expertise and guidance in everything. In my experience nothing is more accurate than your original cycles. I say original because nobody else interprets them like you do. The special thing about yours is it "calibrates" itself to the developing market because it focuses on Time and Price whereas most people's cycles only focus on Time. This is why they have to keep skewing their cycles and yours either touch or invalidate and also have stats to give confidence.
The best that is out there by far. Now we need to get this programmed for NinjaTrader so we don't have to deal with Tradestation.
I think you will like the accuracy of NinjaTraders trendlines much more as well staying put. :-)

Agreed. But, how does one interpret time using the software? These days projected price seems to occur so fast. Both ups and downs.

When you say how does one interpret time using the software, I think you meant my statement that Peter uses both Time and Price where as some only use Time?
How you use only time is to manually draw using the cycle arc type of tool which exists on every good software The problem with this is it requires redoing it when it doesn't line up It looks to me from my interpretation that Peter uses the actual path of the market and offsets it. Since the market chart is composed of both time and price it naturally involves both of them. Super genius and original if you ask me.

Thanks for the clarification. I had misunderstood your point.

maserati92251
maserati92251

Peter, I know I may be getting a bit excited here, and also this might be way premature, but lets say you have the 100/110 weekly offset cross the continuum after getting a series of downside projections from other offsets and the 100/110 were the lowest outstanding projection at that point.

This would make a theoretical projection around S&P 1,500 from the current top. Would you then have some other offsets, like monthly or something to see if there could be lower projections if we were to have say a repeat of a 1929 situation? Or would the theoretical 1,500 projection be a floor for the market.

-Austin L

Hsiang76
Hsiang76

Doesn’t matter... we are invalidating the particular downside projection again (SP500, above 4310 @1053am, EST), which, once invalidated, would not trigger another lower projection on the next longer offset. I’m losing faith in these projections, the statistical accuracy on downside projections just seem too low.

Guido van Schagen
Guido van Schagen

A special update would be highly appreciated today Peter, As markets seem to have done completely the opposite of what you foresaw in your last update?

jshemanski49196
jshemanski49196

Guido van Schagen said:

A special update would be highly appreciated today Peter, As markets seem to have done completely the opposite of what you foresaw in your last update?

He did indicate that we can have sharp rallies such as today's within a decline, Guido. That said, if today's rally did trigger another "loop" projection to the upside, then I might permanently head for the sidelines.

maserati92251
maserati92251

Hsiang76 said:

Doesn’t matter... we are invalidating the particular downside projection again (SP500, above 4310 @1053am, EST), which, once invalidated, would not trigger another lower projection on the next longer offset. I’m losing faith in these projections, the statistical accuracy on downside projections just seem too low.

I have a hunch this may be a 1 day "nick" a bogus candle appeared on the daily charts yesterday (price never was up around 431 at any point yesterday), and as usually happens with those today we climbed up that false tail candle closing the gap.

Optimus
Optimus

maserati92251 said:

Hsiang76 said:

Doesn’t matter... we are invalidating the particular downside projection again (SP500, above 4310 @1053am, EST), which, once invalidated, would not trigger another lower projection on the next longer offset. I’m losing faith in these projections, the statistical accuracy on downside projections just seem too low.

I have a hunch this may be a 1 day "nick" a bogus candle appeared on the daily charts yesterday (price never was up around 431 at any point yesterday), and as usually happens with those today we climbed up that false tail candle closing the gap.

Yes, Peter did say to expect a sharp rally. Market does not move straight up or down. My question is if we can use gap days, Trend lines, Fibonacci or another tool with the software to understand when and by how much such reversal moves might be? Perhaps oversold indicators to know a particular index is oversold and use Fibonacci to predict how much it might snap back? Is anyone aware of something more to confirm the direction reversals?
I suspect that there is nothing definite, but thought I check with if any pros here want to chime in.

Last updated

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

Hsiang76 said:

Doesn’t matter... we are invalidating the particular downside projection again (SP500, above 4310 @1053am, EST), which, once invalidated, would not trigger another lower projection on the next longer offset. I’m losing faith in these projections, the statistical accuracy on downside projections just seem too low.

I still show the 12.1/13.8 as a confirmed downside. Until its invalidated its not invalidated. 70% ATR has a 90% hit ratio sometimes with as much as 80 points move against the projections. You need to look at EVERYTHING! GOVERN YOURSELF ACCORDINGLY

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

XXSPOWER127 said:

Hsiang76 said:

Doesn’t matter... we are invalidating the particular downside projection again (SP500, above 4310 @1053am, EST), which, once invalidated, would not trigger another lower projection on the next longer offset. I’m losing faith in these projections, the statistical accuracy on downside projections just seem too low.

I still show the 12.1/13.8 as a confirmed downside. Until its invalidated its not invalidated. 70% ATR has a 90% hit ratio sometimes with as much as 80 points move against the projections. You need to look at EVERYTHING! GOVERN YOURSELF ACCORDINGLY

With 9/10 12.1/13.8 70% atr I know what I am doing. Its the ODDS.

dh5046
dh5046

Hsiang/Guido - yes use other tools. We closed at -300 McClellan on Monday, and you only see that kind of extreme reading 1 time, mayyyybbeeee 2x throughout an entire year. Keep in mind that the loops that are occurring are on the shortest time frames, that's not the system's fault and it seems to me that you need to simply adjust your style/timeframe/etc to mitigate the choppiness of the shortest time periods. That's just the market, not the system and overlapping other areas (traditional TA/Elliot/etc) with Peter's cycles strengthen the system even further. Thanks for all the work Peter.

Optimus
Optimus

dh5046 said:

Hsiang/Guido - yes use other tools. We closed at -300 McClellan on Monday, and you only see that kind of extreme reading 1 time, mayyyybbeeee 2x throughout an entire year. Keep in mind that the loops that are occurring are on the shortest time frames, that's not the system's fault and it seems to me that you need to simply adjust your style/timeframe/etc to mitigate the choppiness of the shortest time periods. That's just the market, not the system and overlapping other areas (traditional TA/Elliot/etc) with Peter's cycles strengthen the system even further. Thanks for all the work Peter.

Thanks, DHA great tip. Couldn't agree more. Do you use a particular website (free one hopefully) or do you track your own Oscillators?
Totally agree on the timing part. Extreme readings like can lead to a reversal. I was able to get in on long IWM before Monday's close and sell before Tuesday's close. Now, just waiting on the sidelines to see what develops. I can see three scenarios:

  1. Start turnover before we make a new all-time high (perhaps this week)
  2. Turnover after making a new high (this could go on to end of July, early August)
  3. Just Melt-up. Need a strategy to have some funds invested to catch this possibility.

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