Have you come up with some sort of statistic whereas for each additional loop occurrence, we get closer and closer to a top or is this just your opinion based on experience? Have you run your program on past tops? How many loops occurred before everything rolled over? I say this because I have been taking your warnings of danger seriously and have missed out on quite a bit of gain. For all we know this thing is going to 5,000. Honestly, by looking at it right now, I think I will just flip a coin, heads it goes down and invalidates tomorrow, tails it continues up to this weeks highest projection in a couple of days. I believe greater confidence lies in the long term projections, although that number is now not as accurate due to the continual looping.

Jeff said:

Have you come up with some sort of statistic whereas for each additional loop occurrence, we get closer and closer to a top or is this just your opinion based on experience? Have you run your program on past tops? How many loops occurred before everything rolled over? I say this because I have been taking your warnings of danger seriously and have missed out on quite a bit of gain. For all we know this thing is going to 5,000. Honestly, by looking at it right now, I think I will just flip a coin, heads it goes down and invalidates tomorrow, tails it continues up to this weeks highest projection in a couple of days. I believe greater confidence lies in the long term projections, although that number is now not as accurate due to the continual looping.

Jeff, I am in a similar boat. I know I am missing out. However, I don't feel too bad about it because it may be a wash (some of the stocks I sold haven't quite come back to the same levels) and I knew that was a possibility. Besides it's a learning I needed for me to have a more resilient portfolio and develop the skills necessary to manage my own money. It's the first time where I am not just hoping. ("Buy and hold" was ok for me but this can be much better). Some traders I know have a trading account, a speculative account, on top of core long term stocks and mutual funds. The Software is great to notify us of slides ahead. And, we can use it for short trading or rebalancing our positions.
One more thing, what you are asking for is interesting and I had the same question. However, after thinking about it, I doubt it would be possible to know how many times we might see loops because we could have any number of cycles at work. I think it's up to us to have risk management in our trading strategies. I know I would benefit by layering in and out of the market at different levels. For example, in more active account, I can be bit more nimble but be patient on another account.
Just some thoughts, there are some good books on risk management. One I recently read because of it's chapter on risk management: "Swing Trading for dummies" (2nd ed), esp Part 4 of the book on risk management. I would be happy to share more as I get better at this.
I am very much open to the pros here to recommend books or strategies that they have seen work. TIA.

Optimus said:

Jeff said:

Have you come up with some sort of statistic whereas for each additional loop occurrence, we get closer and closer to a top or is this just your opinion based on experience? Have you run your program on past tops? How many loops occurred before everything rolled over? I say this because I have been taking your warnings of danger seriously and have missed out on quite a bit of gain. For all we know this thing is going to 5,000. Honestly, by looking at it right now, I think I will just flip a coin, heads it goes down and invalidates tomorrow, tails it continues up to this weeks highest projection in a couple of days. I believe greater confidence lies in the long term projections, although that number is now not as accurate due to the continual looping.

Jeff, I am in a similar boat. I know I am missing out. However, I don't feel too bad about it because it may be a wash (some of the stocks I sold haven't quite come back to the same levels) and I knew that was a possibility. Besides it's a learning I needed for me to have a more resilient portfolio and develop the skills necessary to manage my own money. It's the first time where I am not just hoping. ("Buy and hold" was ok for me but this can be much better). Some traders I know have a trading account, a speculative account, on top of core long term stocks and mutual funds. The Software is great to notify us of slides ahead. And, we can use it for short trading or rebalancing our positions.
One more thing, what you are asking for is interesting and I had the same question. However, after thinking about it, I doubt it would be possible to know how many times we might see loops because we could have any number of cycles at work. I think it's up to us to have risk management in our trading strategies. I know I would benefit by layering in and out of the market at different levels. For example, in more active account, I can be bit more nimble but be patient on another account.
Just some thoughts, there are some good books on risk management. One I recently read because of it's chapter on risk management: "Swing Trading for dummies" (2nd ed), esp Part 4 of the book on risk management. I would be happy to share more as I get better at this.
I am very much open to the pros here to recommend books or strategies that they have seen work. TIA.

Optimus, I appreciate the advice and answering. I don't remember ever having Peter reply to any of my messages but maybe sort of addressing them in some of his commentary. So it is nice to have a response. I am a long time value investor that got out too soon. Now the market is overvalued and I am looking for a crash to get back in. I have one advisor who takes into account everything, value, charting, macro/micro etc...and he hasn't been wrong at all over the years. The only thing he doesn't do is call tops and tends to let things fall a bit before he gets out. Apparently Peter likes to call tops but ironically cannot actually do it with consistency and certainty. When he started yelling caution, red, I took it seriously. He has a lot of knowledge and experience, but now about 3-4 tops later, we are still cautious and I am wondering when this guessing game will end.

I will buy that book on amazon and see if I can pick up anything from it. I have read a ton over the years but I don't think I have read that one. Hopefully this week is "the" top or "the important" top or "the ten year" top. Time will tell. Thanks!