Do you go back and review your updates and compare them update by update ????

Thank you, Peter. The plot thickens. So, a question and it's related to managing risk. In this case, it's the potential risk of missing a rapid rise leading to a blow-off top which might have another 10%+ on the SPX from here. With all this bump and grinding and grinding up, are you aware of any technique or analysis which may show that a momentum driven melt-up is in progress? If not, is there a way to find out based on your experience?

I am sure you would have come across it if it exists or thought of such a scenario. The reason I ask is that while I am patiently waiting, I do believe in managing the "downside" (i.e. missing a significant upward) which could be a 10% melt-up from here--a blow-off top--on the S&P into January of 22; especially if it's the big one.

Don't want to jump the gun, but just been observing this crazy market.

Last updated 3 years ago

did tesla drop and invalidate the upside today? It was down 5%

A dip that did not get bought all day today? ) well as of 3.21 EST at least. But as far as projections - I am in the dark as on the @NQ 3-5 no downside = 7-8 reached downside, 12-13.8 stuck in purgatory .. so what does a Greek do? LOL. WAIT? patience right? Can you see anything from Globex?

Peter, we all know this market has been weird; but, it did have a match in 1995 as it turns out.

I get a free letter from the SentimenTrader and here is what it said this morning:
"When we look at two-month windows (42 trading days) and tabulate how many 52-week highs the S&P 500 scored without any concurrent new highs in the A/D Line, this is the widest divergence in 25 years.

"The last time the S&P scored so many new highs without a new high in the A/D Line was in 1995, which preceded one of the greatest runs in stock market history. It also triggered before a nice rally in 1964 (which ultimately failed). The other precedents, though, were not nearly as kind."

I am scoring this week from my inverse ETFs because I had built a plan thanks to your commentary to be cautious . I can hope for it to be quite a bit lower into late September. We will see. But, I am going to start going long once this dip ends because guess what, the loop projections are going to be even higher. As always, I will let the market decide, but a plan we must have if it's another 1995 (with appropriate risk mgmt based on one's appetite).
I am finding that your software needs to be combined with your commentary and patience. As my wife said over breakfast this weekend, you don't need to be in the market everyday to do well. I smiled and yes it took me by surprise; but, a great insight.

Last updated 3 years ago

The system called for a rally in the NDX. However, since the fundamental posture of the market was undeniably weak the NDX got bombed in the face of the system calling for a rally in the NDX. As usual the fundamentals carry the day !!!

SS79976231410 said:

Do you go back and review your updates and compare them update by update ????

Are you volunteering to do that or is there a particular reason you ask? That would prove to be impossibly onerous to continuously go back and compare each one to the other. If I make a mistake in referring to past updates, I would appreciate being corrected, but I am usually aware, especially if a projection is invalidated, of any changes from update to update...

Optimus said:

Thank you, Peter. The plot thickens. So, a question and it's related to managing risk. In this case, it's the potential risk of missing a rapid rise leading to a blow-off top which might have another 10%+ on the SPX from here. With all this bump and grinding and grinding up, are you aware of any technique or analysis which may show that a momentum driven melt-up is in progress? If not, is there a way to find out based on your experience?

I am sure you would have come across it if it exists or thought of such a scenario. The reason I ask is that while I am patiently waiting, I do believe in managing the "downside" (i.e. missing a significant upward) which could be a 10% melt-up from here--a blow-off top--on the S&P into January of 22; especially if it's the big one.

Don't want to jump the gun, but just been observing this crazy market.

I see absolutely no indication of a further blow-off top (as if we have not had a blow-off into current levels!), but I would certainly notify subscribers of any such possibility if it arises. I never rule anything out in the market, but right now a blow-off is the least of the probabilities in my mind, and the fact that you and so many others talk about it makes it that much less probable to me!!

Optimus said:

Thank you, Peter. The plot thickens. So, a question and it's related to managing risk. In this case, it's the potential risk of missing a rapid rise leading to a blow-off top which might have another 10%+ on the SPX from here. With all this bump and grinding and grinding up, are you aware of any technique or analysis which may show that a momentum driven melt-up is in progress? If not, is there a way to find out based on your experience?

I am sure you would have come across it if it exists or thought of such a scenario. The reason I ask is that while I am patiently waiting, I do believe in managing the "downside" (i.e. missing a significant upward) which could be a 10% melt-up from here--a blow-off top--on the S&P into January of 22; especially if it's the big one.

Don't want to jump the gun, but just been observing this crazy market.

I see absolutely no indication of a further blow-off top (as if we have not had a blow-off into current levels!), but I would certainly notify subscribers of any such possibility if it arises. I never rule anything out in the market, but right now a blow-off is the least of the probabilities in my mind, and the fact that you and so many others talk about it makes it that much less probable to me!!>SS79976231410 said:

The system called for a rally in the NDX. However, since the fundamental posture of the market was undeniably weak the NDX got bombed in the face of the system calling for a rally in the NDX. As usual the fundamentals carry the day !!!

I would prefer not to call the cycle projection technique a "system" and one of the beautiful parts of it is it can't be wrong for long. A projection is either met or invalidated. If you listened carefully, in fact, you should have noticed on the 8-16-21 update that I suggested the further upside projection on NDX could well be invalidated based on the three reasons given for a top on SPX. By the way, which fundamentals are you suggesting became all of a sudden weak? I certainly hope you wee not referring to Afghanistan. That news was clear a few days before as the market rallied strongly into the close. You will find yourself playing a losing game if you ever rely on fundamentals helping with market timing

evan.canter8781417 said:

did tesla drop and invalidate the upside today? It was down 5%

I hope I answered that question for you in the 8-17-21 update, Evan...