SMC Update 8-17-23

08/17/2023


Comments (19)
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brian1469
brian1469

Thank you for going over the longer term stuff I was wondering after the lower projections got invalidated.

On BTC, I don't know if any of you saw the write up by LastBearStanding 2-3 years connecting Evergrande-Tether-BTC how they all were somewhat connected. I think Elon Musk had the same info and sold right after Evergrande's Chapter 15 bankruptcy this afternoon.

Wouldn't be surprised by a small rally tomorrow for Options Exp in the ES an NQ

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fast3777
fast3777

Peter I love your enthusiasm, I share it also. Thanks. I agree with the downside possibilities and it certainly can happen fast. Lot's of things are lined up for a reality check.

brian1469
brian1469

NQ has got into the 24 at 14637 this morning

fast3777
fast3777

Good morning, looks like a break away gap at open. If Japan turns down in 3 of 3 could be a bad Friday and Monday. A break away gap usually follows with a continuation gap in a crash sequence. But not certain.by any means. Thanks Peter

fast3777
fast3777

A small bounce in the bond market BTC Dow late comers and Japan. Depending on BTC we could rally or start down hard. Expirations are usually non events....But?

fast3777
fast3777

We do have a small unfilled gap in the Dow left open about 5 points.

fast3777
fast3777

We are still below my channel @ 4386 on the SPX cash and yesterday did try to regain but failed and gapped down this morning. So far a very weak rally. Could accelerate down if the Bond starts down.

fast3777
fast3777

So far with a very weak rally and the big boys topping this late and now joining the party lower....This market is ugly.

fast3777
fast3777

To give a example of $500 UNH a Dow late comer buybacker which made a secondary top this week and completed a wave 1 impulse down. Now in a counter trend wave 2. When finished possibly today could resume the downward trend in a wave 3. We have a long way down if i'm right.

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fast3777
fast3777

Just closed the gap on the Dow, Can the NY Fed start a short squeeze? Fade the green.

fast3777
fast3777

From a X trader...."KEY OVERLAP: (1) today, a major breakthrough occurs, as both DJI and NYA [NYSE Composite Index] overlaps with their April or May high; (2) it is significant for EWT wave-counting, as it invalidated the bullish count and made the rally from March a corrective wave pattern."

fast3777
fast3777

Buy back stocks : AAPL,META,GOOGE,Microsoft,UNH,MA,V,HD,CAT,GS,BKNG, AZO,ORLY and others. Some are self funded like AAPL who invested a half trillion in stock purchases and AZO who has the NY banks on the hook. What happens when AAPL exercises it's fiduciary duty to protect it's cash spent for their buy back program? They pull their bids and sell their stock. The stock collapses and can't rally. Will the others do the same? A ticking time bomb?

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fast3777
fast3777

kwmurphy2939 said:

Well, we're set up for the big one. 1929 crash to 1987 crash x 1.6180339 is Monday. My work says Tuesday / Wednesday print low. Aug 1 was the high, 70 x 70 weeks from 1929. Nice job in sticking to your guns Peter but frankly could have been managed much better. Yes, is looks like you're going to be right, and will be interested in how far your projections give. Mine is 4120 S&P cash next week, and I may be conservative. Thanks for all of your efforts and keeping things up to date and doing the work each day, which is what is needed in this business.

I agree in part as either later today will start the most powerful part of the wave 3 down. The severity of this down move depends on BTC and Japan and if they crash down and we get a real panic going....the October low is possible. That may be a stretch though. If the Banks get into this...heaven knows what could happen. Good luck.

fast3777
fast3777

What really blows my mind is the VIX is down. No fear,party like it's the fall of 1929...lol.

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

I’m out of shorts & Puts Long DIA Calls for anticipated rally next week. ~Dorothy

arcon00224
arcon00224

XXSPower, daniel 03, ericoh79, and the other incessant bull troll commentators during this past week of down moves: https://youtube.com/shorts/B8bpY4je8iE?feature=share

daniel039209
daniel039209

arcon00224 said:

XXSPower, daniel 03, ericoh79, and the other incessant bull troll commentators during this past week of down moves: https://youtube.com/shorts/B8bpY4je8iE?feature=share

fyi, i have been away, and have said we are in CORRECTION mode since Aug 2 that first big gap down. I dont consider myself a "bull troll". Was pointing out that a strategy that says "short, imminent collapse " while the market sails 35%( INDIVIDUAL NAMES UP 1.5-3X THAT) was just unhelpful. Yes, we have pulled back 7-8%; very healthy correction, under 8dma/21 dma( which is exactly what i said would turn me SHORT). now under 50dma. Lets see rest of August , Sept also a choppy month, then set up for Q4 rally.

daniel039209
daniel039209

daniel039209 said:

arcon00224 said:

XXSPower, daniel 03, ericoh79, and the other incessant bull troll commentators during this past week of down moves: https://youtube.com/shorts/B8bpY4je8iE?feature=share

fyi, i have been away, and have said we are in CORRECTION mode since Aug 2 that first big gap down. I dont consider myself a "bull troll". Was pointing out that a strategy that says "short, imminent collapse " while the market sails 35%( INDIVIDUAL NAMES UP 1.5-3X THAT) was just unhelpful. Yes, we have pulled back 7-8%; very healthy correction, under 8dma/21 dma( which is exactly what i said would turn me SHORT). now under 50dma. Lets see rest of August , Sept also a choppy month, then set up for Q4 rally. Expect more UP days, followed by DOWN, very choppy

daniel039209
daniel039209

arcon00224 said:

XXSPower, daniel 03, ericoh79, and the other incessant bull troll commentators during this past week of down moves: https://youtube.com/shorts/B8bpY4je8iE?feature=share

Hope you stopped shorting during that correction, very costly to mias these huge moves up

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