SMC Update 8-25-21

08/25/2021


Comments (28)
We welcome all comments related to market timing. We do not welcome political and insulting comments, however, and comments of a political nature belong elsewhere and could lead to removal and blocking the originator of such political comments.

You cannot post comments.
Sign up for the Video or Bundle membership now and get access to exclusive content!
Login for Members

daniel039209
daniel039209

My first quick observation; while yes, your work is your life and I understand why you’re ticked off. And , last year you did have higher projections up to 4300 SPX. The ensuing months brought many potential failures to reach, possible breakdowns and in March 2021 you came out quite bearish, saying imminent top. You put out You Tube videos in Feb/ Mar with the ndx / SPX. 13-16% lower. THAT is what people are upset about. You have a bias. All the “tops” you listed, well, some were longer some were very temporary and from 1937/1966/1987/2000/2008 how much is the market and value of companies up? It’s so much it’s created dozens of billionaires from owning stocks NOT shorting stocks. That’s why the crowd here feels left behind. We need to fall 15% to get back to Mar 2021 “ imminent top” levels.

assanie1262
assanie1262

Hi Peter, its great to see you in good health. I've been following your work and subscribed to your reports in the past as well. Love your work and also appreciate your technical views and history in addition to the market projection software. Keep up the good work!

Peter Eliades
Peter Eliades

daniel039209 said:

My first quick observation; while yes, your work is your life and I understand why you’re ticked off. And , last year you did have higher projections up to 4300 SPX. The ensuing months brought many potential failures to reach, possible breakdowns and in March 2021 you came out quite bearish, saying imminent top. You put out You Tube videos in Feb/ Mar with the ndx / SPX. 13-16% lower. THAT is what people are upset about. You have a bias. All the “tops” you listed, well, some were longer some were very temporary and from 1937/1966/1987/2000/2008 how much is the market and value of companies up? It’s so much it’s created dozens of billionaires from owning stocks NOT shorting stocks. That’s why the crowd here feels left behind. We need to fall 15% to get back to Mar 2021 “ imminent top” levels.

Yes, and, my selective friend, the Russell 2000, representing secondary stocks was down 10% from that Feb/March period just a few days ago. Does that sound like it requires a 10-15 % decline to get back to Feb/March "imminent top" levels??? This is a complex business, my friend!!!

mikepowell.vietnam107
mikepowell.vietnam107

Get em’ Peter, you the man! Your work is highly appreciated and valuable to me. I’ve been following you for over a year now. I was a little intimidated by the software initially and thought it might be too complicated for me, but after watching months of your video’s I finally broke down and got it in May of this year. I absolutely love it! It has helped me tremendously with the timing of my entries and exits. And like you say, it helps to determine where to place a good tight stop loss as well. I took a position yesterday and today on the SQQQ and I have one more order in place at $7.56 if it gets down that low. Setting the stop loss is very simple for this trade thanks to the projections. Don’t worry about the bitchers, winers and groaners. Their just looking for somebody to tell them what to do and when to do it, all the while snapping and biting the hand that feeds them.

SS79976231410
SS79976231410

You must have been a lawyer in another life. Bottom line is you harm people day after day, week after week and month after month. Your desperate antics cannot change that reality.

SS79976231410
SS79976231410

mikepowell.vietnam107 said:

Get em’ Peter, you the man! Your work is highly appreciated and valuable to me. I’ve been following you for over a year now. I was a little intimidated by the software initially and thought it might be too complicated for me, but after watching months of your video’s I finally broke down and got it in May of this year. I absolutely love it! It has helped me tremendously with the timing of my entries and exits. And like you say, it helps to determine where to place a good tight stop loss as well. I took a position yesterday and today on the SQQQ and I have one more order in place at $7.56 if it gets down that low. Setting the stop loss is very simple for this trade thanks to the projections. Don’t worry about the bitchers, winers and groaners. Their just looking for somebody to tell them what to do and when to do it, all the while snapping and biting the hand that feeds them.

You have followed him for a year. Talk to someone who has followed him for 40. His befuddling incorrect forecasts since March are no accident,

mikepowell.vietnam107
mikepowell.vietnam107

SS79976231410 said:

mikepowell.vietnam107 said:

Get em’ Peter, you the man! Your work is highly appreciated and valuable to me. I’ve been following you for over a year now. I was a little intimidated by the software initially and thought it might be too complicated for me, but after watching months of your video’s I finally broke down and got it in May of this year. I absolutely love it! It has helped me tremendously with the timing of my entries and exits. And like you say, it helps to determine where to place a good tight stop loss as well. I took a position yesterday and today on the SQQQ and I have one more order in place at $7.56 if it gets down that low. Setting the stop loss is very simple for this trade thanks to the projections. Don’t worry about the bitchers, winers and groaners. Their just looking for somebody to tell them what to do and when to do it, all the while snapping and biting the hand that feeds them.

You have followed him for a year. Talk to someone who has followed him for 40. His befuddling incorrect forecasts since March are no accident,

So you been following him for 40 years and still don’t know how to trade? You got the whining part down pretty good.

jwkim33366
jwkim33366

Peter, your work is absolutely brilliant and I am still amazed every single day that I use it. The projection software predicted exactly the magnitude of the recent downmove including the overnight low, which occurred exactly at an offset barrier. On Monday, when we opened above the nasdaq daily offset, I went long to catch most of the upmove. Whenever I have not followed the software and used my gut instinct or other types of analysis including Elliot wave, I have lost money. You have literally changed my life with your work and allowed me to gain financial freedom. Now, the main challenge for me is waiting for the time period for a particular offset to be over since the market can reverse before the price projection has fully formed, but as long as you monitor it carefully, this risk can be minimized. I commend you for your brilliant work in developing this program! It is vastly superior to every financial predicting tool ever invented during the history of time.

Jeff
Jeff

Peter, I do believe there isn't a better system to predict the direction of the market. Please do not take anything personal. None of the criticisms that were made by at least me were intended as such. The last thing anyone wants to do make an incorrect observation of the system or your years of analysis and knowledge. I realize it is one of your life's work and you should be quite proud of what you have accomplished. We wouldn't be here if we didn't think so.

I stated I was well aware that your long term projection was/is very accurate. And it is. And from what you have spoken about tonight, using Fibonacci patterns in the market over the last almost 100 years that is the reason you have been calling for a top and being cautious. And after your explanation, I am not in the least in disagreement.

I am simply here to try to make money in my 401k and learn something along the way. I have watched you religiously every night you posted. Again, I had mentioned previously I am an engineer by trade and schooling. I believe that every system of analysis be it financial or otherwise has advantages and limitations. I know you have stated one limitation of your system is that it can loop for a long time. What you are probably seeing from all of us is a bit of frustration with the markets.

I know you have all this knowledge and experience predicting these long term up and downtrends and right now it is as clear as a bell to you. Something is going happen, we just don't know when. Unfortunately it was apparently not as clear to everyone, including me, although after your video tonight it appears we have to see part of this year's analysis as a series of larger cycles over the last 100 years.

Please tell me if I am wrong. So then the looping projections are sort of a holding pattern where the market could go up or down slightly over a series of months or essentially go sideways. So what I understand is that during this period, long term meaningful projections are probably not made as often. And at some point you will get a solid long term projection that will be very difficult to invalidate and then we will know.

I do believe if there was a way to lay out in writing what we have hear verbally a few additional ways/points/rules you use the software, patterns fib levels, history etc....So those of us that are newer than others could use to be more knowledgeable that could help greatly as well. And improve the quality of exchange of ideas.

Try to have a good evening, I as much as many others here appreciate your work, we may have just apparently lost sight of the ball at the moment. Thanks Jeff

jwkim33366
jwkim33366

mikepowell.vietnam107 said:

SS79976231410 said:

mikepowell.vietnam107 said:

Get em’ Peter, you the man! Your work is highly appreciated and valuable to me. I’ve been following you for over a year now. I was a little intimidated by the software initially and thought it might be too complicated for me, but after watching months of your video’s I finally broke down and got it in May of this year. I absolutely love it! It has helped me tremendously with the timing of my entries and exits. And like you say, it helps to determine where to place a good tight stop loss as well. I took a position yesterday and today on the SQQQ and I have one more order in place at $7.56 if it gets down that low. Setting the stop loss is very simple for this trade thanks to the projections. Don’t worry about the bitchers, winers and groaners. Their just looking for somebody to tell them what to do and when to do it, all the while snapping and biting the hand that feeds them.

You have followed him for a year. Talk to someone who has followed him for 40. His befuddling incorrect forecasts since March are no accident,

So you been following him for 40 years and still don’t know how to trade? You got the whining part down pretty good.

I have been following Peter's comments since March and he has never told anyone to short the market. He has been asking us to be aware that we are in top territory but he keeps emphasizing that we need to follow the projections. Now, I was like most people very compelled with his recent analysis which pointed to a possible top last Monday. Anyone who followed that recommendation was lucky enough to catch the downmove early last week, because you would not have shorted without his analysis. So you can't be mad at him for losing those gains with this recent reversal to the upside. We are all responsible for our own trades. I'm sure Peter would recommend that we follow the software projections as they are the most reliable indicators. When Peter adds color to his projection analysis, that is how I interpret them, as interesting points to consider. However, anyone who goes against the projections is likely to lose money. For those of you who are angry at Peter for his discussions regarding a market top, why did you not exit the market when your offsets were clearly crossed? That is on you.

spytrader24
spytrader24

My daily chart measured off the march 2020 low has been calling for 4606 on SPX and 4598 on ES for almost a year for what its worth. Its kept me long so far. Weekly measures the same and monthly calls for 5000. Good luck boyz and gals

Jeff
Jeff

When is the sign of the bear going to start again? A good article discussing your approach/expertise years ago:

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/sign-bear-flashing-red

jules.ackerman.wh86365
jules.ackerman.wh86365

Hi Peter, I have been following your working for over 30 years! Your work is almost PERFECT!!!!!!!!!!!! These neebies just dont get how far you go back in time and your life's work in Cycles as I do. Please keep going forwrds for the follow like me who need and continue to study along with you daily.................

rickjendz64
rickjendz64

Peter, Please keep providing us your expert analysis and forget the naysayers who are expecting someone to give them the EXACT top. No one can do that. I agree with you that 2021 COULD and SHOULD have the most important top in history. We are in the final stages of the last wave 5 in a rising wedge pattern. The rallies are getting smaller and smaller and eventually will end. Also August is usually the month for major turning points and August 31 is only next Tuesday. You have been looking for an SPX peak range of 4,520 or so for several months now (people forget that newer projection and did not adapt I guess, so they're mad), so I'm watching for 4525 or so before next Tuesday's close as a possible peak. It may not happen that way with the FED buying everything. They could prolong it even further. But in a rising wedge, or loop projections as you call it, the rallies are minimal until it breaks. It is getting more and more difficult to make money on these small rallies so I stopped buying months ago. I would rather miss the final 5% or so in order to avoid losing 50% or more in the next year (maybe sooner). What many people don't see is the rising support line from the March 2020 low is only 4360 or so. IF THAT BREAKS, it could get bad real quick, and all those "millionaires" won't be able to sell fast enough, or think they are smart as they buy all the way down. Maybe they become "thousandaires". Especially if they are on margin. Margin calls are devastating!! And we haven't any since 2008/2009. I remember tons of them in 1987! I saw people lose their homes and marriages. Keep the faith Peter!! You're on the right path. I have been following since the 1980's and you know your stuff!! Thanks for all that you do.

Optimus
Optimus

spytrader24 said:

My daily chart measured off the march 2020 low has been calling for 4606 on SPX and 4598 on ES for almost a year for what its worth. Its kept me long so far. Weekly measures the same and monthly calls for 5000. Good luck boyz and gals

Are you able to share how you project that far?

Optimus
Optimus

Thank you, Peter. Stay safe. Appreciate all you do, please keep it up. You have me as a customer for life.

Guido van Schagen
Guido van Schagen

I only know that I benefit a lot from the software. No it’s not 100% accurate, but the more you use it, the better you get to feel it. Without the software I would be lost in the market. Last monday I saw what Peter did not see, that we would go higher. Peter missed the intraday projections that already called for higher prices whilst the closing ones did not yet. And he pointed out to the closing ones. Can happen. His message was right though. The first hours of trading made the difference. Peter, I saw your updates from you hospital bed due to your COVID infection. I saw a man that lives for the market and loves his theory and software. Don’t let all this passion be bothered by what’s been written yesterday. I am thankful every single day that I found your website and started using the software. Thanks very much!

gerryj1968
gerryj1968

Your videos and analysis along with the projections I calculate (I have your software also) are very helpful to my trading. I watch every video you post prior to the market open and always make my trades with your analysis guiding me. As some of the prior posts say, some people seem want exact predictions and we know the market doesn't work that way. When we are at all time highs it is very difficult for anything to predict what will happen but your software does a great job. It is probably the most important tool I use but I personally don't use it by itself, there has to be other reasons for me to want to take the trade. I use the cycle projections to a) study the market as a whole (I don't trade the markets or ETF's based on the markets per se) and b) to assist a trade I'm intending to take. Keep up the good work Peter! I for one appreciate all your insights and knowledge.

srblack1960144
srblack1960144

Peter, your system and software is fantastic and I find it disheartening that even here, within the comments section of a paid service, there are those that feel compelled to attack you. You've done/said nothing wrong and I've done very well this year with the help of your service. My Roth IRA is up over 100% this year! The most valuable thing your system does for me is it keeps me in trades longer than I would otherwise, since in the past I'd get scared out of them too quickly.

I just wanted to point out a few of upside projections that I'm following. If there's any reasons any of these don't look realistic let me know:

  1. @ES 45 minute chart, 111/127 offset, there is a projection up to 4547.25 minimum (if we reach the closing price projection in #2 below today, I'm thinking it might get way up there on a quick euphoric spike after Powell is done speaking tomorrow)
  2. SPX daily close chart, 3/5/4 offset, there is a closing projection up to 4507.29 minimum
  3. SPX daily median price chart, 7/8 offset, there is a intraday projection up to 4510.77 minimum
  4. Small caps, using IWM, 65 minute chart, 42/48 offset, there is an intraday projection up to 232.14, about 4% higher. Seems unlikely but it's there.
jefflane8592
jefflane8592

Nice job Peter. That was an impressive review of market history!

1-20 of 28