Question; after reviewing from July 21,22,23 there was a Vix sell signal- 1st since 2008- and many days of “reached potential top” comments and lines and charts. You have held out Sept3-5 could turn so why so bearish since 7/22? Market has gone up so much that NDX just fell 500+ points and is still 600 above July 22-23 levels. You were much more “balanced” why the tilt to bear ?

Question; after reviewing from July 21,22,23 there was a Vix sell signal- 1st since 2008- and many days of “reached potential top” comments and lines and charts. You have held out Sept3-5 could turn so why so bearish since 7/22? Market has gone up so much that NDX just fell 500+ points and is still 600 above July 22-23 levels. You were much more “balanced” why the tilt to bear ?

Been watching your YouTube videos for a while, but find the value of these daily videos incredible. Thanks for your work

I read something interesting this morning. Since 1950, when the S&P 500, after falling more than 20% (closing basis) has never retraced more than 50% of that decline and then, without fail, went on to make a lower low. This is from Jonathan Krinsky, CMT.

brad..i like Krinski, thank you for posting.. eventually we will hit an upper end of this rally. timing and price seem to be the challange.

daniel039209 said:

Question; after reviewing from July 21,22,23 there was a Vix sell signal- 1st since 2008- and many days of “reached potential top” comments and lines and charts. You have held out Sept3-5 could turn so why so bearish since 7/22? Market has gone up so much that NDX just fell 500+ points and is still 600 above July 22-23 levels. You were much more “balanced” why the tilt to bear ?

Where did you see me "tilt to bear," daniel? I made it very clear the market still had outstanding upside projections all along, but because some projections had been met and because of the VIX sell signals, a close below the Exponential 10 day could signal a short term pullback. We have yet to see such a close. SPX has closed above its Exp 10 day MA every day since July 18, and I have remained bullish through it all despite giving cautionary short term things to watch for...

brad.jenson120 said:

I read something interesting this morning. Since 1950, when the S&P 500, after falling more than 20% (closing basis) has never retraced more than 50% of that decline and then, without fail, went on to make a lower low. This is from Jonathan Krinsky, CMT.

Interesting stat, Brad. I did a quick undocumented check and it seems to be right since 1950, although there was an exception or two in the 1930s...