SMC Update 9-17-25

Wed, 09/17/2025 Wednesday, 09/17/2025 6:18 PM PDT


Comments (6)
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adwhartonmd232
adwhartonmd232

Peter Thank you Much better update

daniel039209
daniel039209

Peter, with all your work you surely must know the Fed CUT rates 3 times in late 1998. LTCM crisis. The market exploded higher. YOu clearly also must know the Fed raised rates in June & November 1999. The market kept climbing till March 2000. And from Nov 1999 to March 2000 I don have the exact number but the NDX went up a significant amount..
I think it was 70%. Why not mention those cuts in 1998?

jshemanski49196
jshemanski49196

Your service would have much better results if you had just followed your own software's projections, Peter.

Last updated

daniel039209
daniel039209

jshemanski49196 said:

Your service would have much better results if you had just followed your own software's projections, Peter.

I recall the huge sell/top call in early May. Then the .618 was supposed to be June20th? ish, Then, there was another .381/618 August 12th. Now for last couple weeks it is the Sept 12th date as 9301 days area for top. So many tops but as they pass, never to be mentioned again. New sell ideas in MSFT , AAPL, have translated into immediate 10-14 point losses within days. Im not sure Peter is trying to do anything other than call the top and be short the market for years. Do you recall a "buy" recommendation?? Other than VIX?
And he has no intention of maybe altering view. This is like 2021. Market went up 22-26% until rates started to rise and non earning companies hit crazy valuations. Today, companies are making 10's of Billions of dollars and the valuations on MSFT< NVDA <AAPL<GOOG are expensive , not crazy.
I thought we would rally into the Fed meeting, now , should consolidate some of the massive gains, since Late April- some 31% in NDX alone. What are results?

daniel039209
daniel039209

one piece of the puzzle as i see it, Fed cuts, it was expected, October typically sets up for a better buy level. this is as Elliot wave gurus say is 5th wave action.

jshemanski49196
jshemanski49196

daniel039209 said:

jshemanski49196 said:

Your service would have much better results if you had just followed your own software's projections, Peter.

I recall the huge sell/top call in early May. Then the .618 was supposed to be June20th? ish, Then, there was another .381/618 August 12th. Now for last couple weeks it is the Sept 12th date as 9301 days area for top. So many tops but as they pass, never to be mentioned again. New sell ideas in MSFT , AAPL, have translated into immediate 10-14 point losses within days. Im not sure Peter is trying to do anything other than call the top and be short the market for years. Do you recall a "buy" recommendation?? Other than VIX?
And he has no intention of maybe altering view. This is like 2021. Market went up 22-26% until rates started to rise and non earning companies hit crazy valuations. Today, companies are making 10's of Billions of dollars and the valuations on MSFT< NVDA <AAPL<GOOG are expensive , not crazy.
I thought we would rally into the Fed meeting, now , should consolidate some of the massive gains, since Late April- some 31% in NDX alone. What are results?

It's really crazy, because you would think that at some point he would stop finding so many reasons to be bearish & just trust his own software.

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