SMC Update 9-5-23

09/05/2023


Comments (23)
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jeanrobert15225
jeanrobert15225

Here Peter might be an explanation for this dichotomy that you mentioned. The parameters in this article go along with your projections https://seekingalpha.com/article/4633062-makes-no-sense-market-will-continue-to-rally

jeanrobert15225
brian1469
brian1469

Agree Peter they have made it tough to have an opinion here. Still upper projections and a gap right above doesn't make you want to get super short just yet.

Your call on IWM and it not having the upper projections worked out great today. Also I think the IWM is an important index in this current market because the Regional Bank KRE are some main components of it.

If we start heading down with them leading it will be all she wrote and we could be back in crisis mode pretty quickly. The FED papering over the issues with them so far has worked but I think the CRE issues will be to much here is good graph of the maturity wall and loans resetting. 2024 is the worst year which to me means the market is going to start sniffing out the issue before then.

https://twitter.com/TheBondFreak/status/1699108606778450428

fast3777
fast3777

Japan topping tonight. First time I can remember futures are DOWN. Get ready for a fast 5 waves down. Then a violent rally,after that a panic wave down is a possibility. Lot's of black swans possible. The "continuing resolution" in Congress will be a battle to stop the war in Ukraine before NATO joins in. Possible the Gov gets shut down. UST will make new lows in the coming hours.

fast3777
fast3777

Japan has built a large top and has yet to join the party. I don't know when,but lot's of red coming. They are dumping AAPL,TSLA,NVDA to kick off the Analog.

fast3777
fast3777

BTC doesn't look good,markets just seem to be waiting for it to start down.

fast3777
fast3777

No sellers yet in AZO,CMG,MCD,BKNG,MA,ORLY,CAT,HD,META,MSFT ect this will change at some point....long way to go. The Buy back pools will start selling at some point. Probably when the panic starts.

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fast3777
fast3777

I think we will get another wave down today. If we do this should easily put the SPX down +50

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daniel039209
daniel039209

“daniel039209 6 days ago

I am shorting the QQQ today from 377-379. All the sudden bullishness after a 5% move in 4 days is a short NOT a new buy. Period”

Reposting. Just because it was right to fade the bearish to “ only higher projections” that day. Although 2 days later it was back to negative to Peter’s credit. It’s called a choppy consolidating market. You can short big rallies and by mid Sept better go long hunting for Q4

arcon00224
arcon00224

Daniel's Actual post from 6 calendar days ago (Aug 31st):

" I love it ; 2 mins in and all the bullishness of last 30 hours is erased. Reality is September is choppy too. 4th Quarter overall. BULLISH. Period Peter- you have anchored yourself to some “fundamental disconnect on NDX to DJIA” all the while you are a technical analyst( cycle really( try not to do Eliott waves lie you did last week “ 3 of 3” we went up 5% ) Nothing from 2000,2008,2021 is relevant today ! Trust me you are anchored to a wrong belief. That’s why the market is up 32 % and you have been forecasting DOWN 40% "

arcon00224
arcon00224

And, hang in there as well, XXBigLoss & EricOhNo79

daniel039209
daniel039209

arcon00224 said:

Daniel's Actual post from 6 calendar days ago (Aug 31st):

" I love it ; 2 mins in and all the bullishness of last 30 hours is erased. Reality is September is choppy too. 4th Quarter overall. BULLISH. Period Peter- you have anchored yourself to some “fundamental disconnect on NDX to DJIA” all the while you are a technical analyst( cycle really( try not to do Eliott waves lie you did last week “ 3 of 3” we went up 5% ) Nothing from 2000,2008,2021 is relevant today ! Trust me you are anchored to a wrong belief. That’s why the market is up 32 % and you have been forecasting DOWN 40% "

That was day after. All projections were higher, after being lower for 9 months. And after a 5% rally. Prob hurt all the shorts Seemed like a low risk short. Next day Peter went back to negative tone and I couldn’t understand it that’s all. At least you’re really focused on my recommendations ! Thank you

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arcon00224
arcon00224

Yes you cleverly omitted your most recent bullish scathing comment towards Peter and instead nonchalantly replaced it with your older bullish comment and tried to run a victory lap now

arcon00224
arcon00224

I was reading through some of your past comments on these threads. Overall your comments wouldn't be so bad if you didn't sound exasperated and frustrated and pissed off all the time with Peter. If you don't like his service, hit the 'end subscription' button. Otherwise, thank him for his efforts.

Thank You, Peter, for your continued work, insight, opinions, and analysis!

daniel039209
daniel039209

arcon00224 said:

I was reading through some of your past comments on these threads. Overall your comments wouldn't be so bad if you didn't sound exasperated and frustrated and pissed off all the time with Peter. If you don't like his service, hit the 'end subscription' button. Otherwise, thank him for his efforts.

Thank You, Peter, for your continued work, insight, opinions, and analysis!

arcon00224 said:

Yes you cleverly omitted your most recent bullish scathing comment towards Peter and instead nonchalantly replaced it with your older bullish comment and tried to run a victory lap now

1) I didn’t omit anything 2) yeah I’m frustrated. I’ve known Peter for years/decades. I hate when he gets fixed in a mindset that doesn’t allow anything but “ BEAR/ CRASH/NDX 6000”. I also am friends with Tom DeMark and know Larry Williams- are they always right ? No. But they don’t fight a trend like we saw in 2021 and since last Dec

daniel039209
daniel039209

daniel039209 said:

arcon00224 said:

I was reading through some of your past comments on these threads. Overall your comments wouldn't be so bad if you didn't sound exasperated and frustrated and pissed arcon00224 said:

Yes you cleverly omitted your most recent bullish scathing comment towards Peter and instead nonchalantly replaced it with your older bullish comment and tried to run a victory lap now

1) I didn’t omit anything 2) yeah I’m frustrated. I’ve known Peter for years/decades. I hate when he gets fixed in a mindset that doesn’t allow anything but “ BEAR/ CRASH/NDX 6000”. I also am friends with Tom DeMark and know Larry Williams- are they always right ? No. But they don’t fight a trend like we saw in 2021 and since last Dec 3). It has 100% cost me $$$ being short , following Peters projections.

fast3777
fast3777

Ugly close....seems the only stock that can rally is TSLA.....AAPL DOA

fast3777
fast3777

Dead cat bounce into the close. Do we get a wave 3 of 3 of 1 down tomorrow. 75 pct odds we do.

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arcon00224
arcon00224

Thanks Fast3777 for your updates on this analog you've been tracking. Analogs are obviously tricky and work until they don't. Or as Peter put it a while back, Analogs work until you discover them. But I've been enjoying reading your updates, whatever it is you're matching up. Any links to chart screenshots you have are appreciated if you have any. Keep up the good fun work.

arcon00224
arcon00224

Daniel if you've known Peter and all these other analysts for years like you say .... friends with them all ?? .... name dropping ?? ....

well anyways if you've been following Peter for years and are exasperated and at a wits end but feel the need to badger and berate his updates in the comments section ... well here's an article to help you out of this long term abusive situation you describe ... https://www.joinonelove.org/learn/why_leaving_abuse_is_hard/

Meanwhile, I'll be back in here happily paying his monthly subscription service, saying THANK YOU PETER for his effort, and if i feel the need to offer a contrary opinion in here I'll be sure to back it up with a well thought-out reason why and hopefully some links to screenshots from my charts.

But, you won't find me bitching and badgering him and demanding he owe up to a past video update he made which didn't pan out. If I find mself considering that route, instead I'll simply click the " end subscription " button before I start bitching and badgering him nonstop on an almost daily basis like some in here have been doing for months .....

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