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ryguy
I enjoy the long updates with insight how the software works. Would love to go back to other crashes with the log view next week
admin3092
Could you explain what this means time wise? Because a nominal 4-year projection in NDX could still see a new all-time high before being met, right?
spencerdavis2000
thanks for the great update Peter. It seems that NDX/QQQ is about 41 multiple. If we are going to 7500 roughly on NDX does that mean QQQ is roughly 4 year nominal projection to around 182?
DAV15J
Peter, USTs are driving NDX down. So, contrarily, they are more important just now, than stocks.
Also, the first major NDX projection is, say, 10k. I haven’t heard you comment on what you project afterwards. Straight down to 7k or BMR to ? first?
Last updated
Yadunath
Thanks for the update, greatly appreciated.
Agree that the action is more on the equity side of things than elsewhere. Appreciate you throwing some light - whenever the bandwidth permits - on EURUSD spot rate (FX). Given that dollar has gone way too far against other currencies and given what you said that there's no more projected upside to Dollar index, it would be good to know whether EURUSD is pointing to a change in trend in the long run.
jefflane8592
Hi Spencer. I was going to do the same translation because the QQQ is what I trade not the NDX. I think what you did is a good approximation at least because the QQQ although the QQQ include many more stocks than the NDX it is very heavily weighted toward the large caps. I believe stocks smaller than the top 100 will have a relatively small weighting.
jefflane8592
That log projection from 2002 was pretty amazing Peter.
jefflane8592
That log projection from 2002 was pretty amazing Peter.
m1.c70
admin3092 said:
Could you explain what this means time wise? Because a nominal 4-year projection in NDX could still see a new all-time high before being met, right?
Peter see price as more important than time as I understand it. The way to use the time bands is to look for upside and downside projections systematically at each longer time projection for example. I don't really understand where you get an all time high from?!? At the moment we have confirmed downside projections which usually have a good pr of being met (normally 70-80% pr). If important downside projections were negated then Peter would look at what is generated next. Were there to be a massive up leg in the markets then his methodology would start producing smaller then more significant upside targets, so you would get ample warning to guide. I note he generated large upside targets at the covid bottom which were eventually met even though it appeared impossible at the time. I note also that other individual stocks are also indicating large declines and this provides further support evidence for the current downside projections on NQ. One might expect the NQ downside target to be met in a 6 month time frame but possibly much sooner. The Bear market also provides a context and man other fundamentals eg. liquidity problems. The views I express are my own and reflect my more limited understanding of Peter's work.
Matt
You had NVDA going down to about 50 on a linear chart. How would a log chart change this downside projection for NVDA? Would be so helpful to see this.
alangr2269
In the example you give back in 2000 last time 4 year nominal cycle was crossed it looks like it took 18 months to reach the projection. that is quiet a bit of time. Are you expecting similar move in time?
kyenno3171
Such a wonderfully informative video. Powerful stuff. Really appreciate it.
vincent.chan2007
Do we have any rules of thumb on when to use logarithm scale or linear? for negative projections that would make perfect sense to use log. For positive projections, we are just giving us an additional target on top of the linear one. Does that mean there are two target projection for the same time offset?
Something to do with power laws in the physics?
vincent.chan2007
vincent.chan2007 said:
Do we have any rules of thumb on when to use logarithm scale or linear? for negative projections that would make perfect sense to use log. For positive projections, we are just giving us an additional target on top of the linear one. Does that mean there are two target projection for the same time offset?
Something to do with power laws in the physics?
Also, in 2008 NDX appeared to work fine on a linear projection to the downside in 100/110. Had it been logarithmic scale it would be a massive overshot to the downside. It appears logarithm applies only when the projection is in the negative territory and should refrain from using when positive?
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I enjoy the long updates with insight how the software works. Would love to go back to other crashes with the log view next week
Could you explain what this means time wise? Because a nominal 4-year projection in NDX could still see a new all-time high before being met, right?
thanks for the great update Peter. It seems that NDX/QQQ is about 41 multiple. If we are going to 7500 roughly on NDX does that mean QQQ is roughly 4 year nominal projection to around 182?
Peter, USTs are driving NDX down. So, contrarily, they are more important just now, than stocks.
Also, the first major NDX projection is, say, 10k. I haven’t heard you comment on what you project afterwards. Straight down to 7k or BMR to ? first?
Last updated
Thanks for the update, greatly appreciated.
Agree that the action is more on the equity side of things than elsewhere. Appreciate you throwing some light - whenever the bandwidth permits - on EURUSD spot rate (FX). Given that dollar has gone way too far against other currencies and given what you said that there's no more projected upside to Dollar index, it would be good to know whether EURUSD is pointing to a change in trend in the long run.
Hi Spencer. I was going to do the same translation because the QQQ is what I trade not the NDX. I think what you did is a good approximation at least because the QQQ although the QQQ include many more stocks than the NDX it is very heavily weighted toward the large caps. I believe stocks smaller than the top 100 will have a relatively small weighting.
That log projection from 2002 was pretty amazing Peter.
That log projection from 2002 was pretty amazing Peter.
Peter see price as more important than time as I understand it. The way to use the time bands is to look for upside and downside projections systematically at each longer time projection for example. I don't really understand where you get an all time high from?!? At the moment we have confirmed downside projections which usually have a good pr of being met (normally 70-80% pr). If important downside projections were negated then Peter would look at what is generated next. Were there to be a massive up leg in the markets then his methodology would start producing smaller then more significant upside targets, so you would get ample warning to guide. I note he generated large upside targets at the covid bottom which were eventually met even though it appeared impossible at the time. I note also that other individual stocks are also indicating large declines and this provides further support evidence for the current downside projections on NQ. One might expect the NQ downside target to be met in a 6 month time frame but possibly much sooner. The Bear market also provides a context and man other fundamentals eg. liquidity problems. The views I express are my own and reflect my more limited understanding of Peter's work.
You had NVDA going down to about 50 on a linear chart. How would a log chart change this downside projection for NVDA? Would be so helpful to see this.
In the example you give back in 2000 last time 4 year nominal cycle was crossed it looks like it took 18 months to reach the projection. that is quiet a bit of time. Are you expecting similar move in time?
Such a wonderfully informative video. Powerful stuff. Really appreciate it.
Do we have any rules of thumb on when to use logarithm scale or linear? for negative projections that would make perfect sense to use log. For positive projections, we are just giving us an additional target on top of the linear one. Does that mean there are two target projection for the same time offset?
Something to do with power laws in the physics?
Also, in 2008 NDX appeared to work fine on a linear projection to the downside in 100/110. Had it been logarithmic scale it would be a massive overshot to the downside. It appears logarithm applies only when the projection is in the negative territory and should refrain from using when positive?
Hi Peter, any thoughts on this cycle event?
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/o/oJJi5Xky.png
NOT off to a great start, eh??
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