SMC Update Week Ending 10-15-21 Recorded 10-16-21

10/16/2021


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markanderson22111352
markanderson22111352

Why are you using "median price" input on your weekly charts? Shouln't the input be "closing" price for weekly and daily charts and for intraday "median price" is to be used as an input? Please provide a reply so I can better understand this. thank you Peter.

Peter Eliades
Peter Eliades

I never (or hardly ever) use closing projections for weekly charts, Mark. Weeklies give a more macro longer term picture usually so I don't find closing projections on them as useful as the bar extremes we get with intra-day (median) projections. As I recall, the original Hurst cycle projection work did not do closing projections at all. I believe I am the first to use his techniques for closing price projections...

markanderson22111352
markanderson22111352

Thank you for your clarification. Much appreciated.

RichB
RichB

I would prefer that you lay out the options then state your bias/preference.

Jeff
Jeff

Peter,

I can tell you are working very hard to use your system to give your best projections. And I appreciate it. I know this is a difficult time, but I have made no actionable trades so far from anything you have recommended since you are very much convinced the market is going lower. My guess is you are correct, or will be eventually.

I have been watching you for quite a few months at this point and I am actually slightly confused but I think I see why your explanations have been somewhat difficult for me to follow. Todays explanation did clarify something I wish maybe you had done so much earlier.

Your short term projections say we are going up (since we have gone up a lot) or if we use some bearish subjectivity we can "say" well it certainly could, but you we can say it met or nearly since it touched the range. Then we look at the longer term projections (longer trends which are still negative) from a week ago, since the short term run up this week.

So I basically I see your long term projections as a look at the longer trend in traditional technical analysis which is still in a negative direction and I see your short term projections as the bullish shorter time frame indicators everyone flashing everywhere right now. Essentially once a larger trend gets higher highs and higher lows then that would probably equate to negating your longer term projections also, or probably.

So basically after some very good explanation, the one thing I took from this is that if the SP500 gets breaks through the continuum on the longer term, then all bearish thoughts go out the window. Even the shorter term projections are not really bearish, they appear to be quite bullish.

But your projections are a snapshot in time for these discussion purposes. Monday morning hypothetically, the market could go up 100 points, cross the continuum then dump 200 cross it again and give us downward projections. I believe the higher the VIX, the less accurate the projections. Would you say that is correct? and vice versa?

Thanks Jeff

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