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tmbestbuy2375
Thanks for taking the time. Great update. Very informative.
fast3777
Peter,Thank you. No other analysis seems to make sense in this market. Just too much money and manipulation. The only metric that makes any sense is your valuation ratio. This market will turn down sooner than later. It could happen anytime now.
Last updated
johngreen01554628
fast3777 said:
Peter,Thank you. No other analysis seems to make sense in this market. Just too much money and manipulation. The only metric that makes any sense is your valuation ratio. This market will turn down sooner than later. It could happen anytime now.
Could we get Double top before real leg down?
See also how low the VIX is, No positive divergence like 2022 top.
Why can't NDX/Dow ratio can't get back to 45 or 46.
Could happen within 14TD
NAAIM Exposure Index is low like everyone is bearish. need more Bulls. With higher prices??
Cascading new 30 min higher projection???
I dont recall which day the video showed the US Dollar in a "topping formation" I tried to explain, if the US Dollar is going to weaken, that is very bullish for stocks- surprised Peter never mentioned that point. I wonder if that helped the SPX go up 5.8% in 5 days. I will watch this 55 min video later. I dont know if video is bullish or bearish, but why start Monday with a negative viewpoint after best rally of year, and i waited till Thurs to short with the "above levels" and still got run over.
daniel039209
Thanks for great long update. my takeaway; very glad you read some comments, i think fairly intelligent ones posted most of time. Last weekend update, you were severely bearish with massively lower downside targets. Okay, so we had a huge rally- how come you show the ES weekly is right 84% of time on upside and 100% of time on downside??? Not to mention since October 2022 when we were dancing on lows, you were ULTRA bearish. Same through December and January. Mostly until Late July, all of your bearish bias OBSERVATIONS were just flat out wrong. Yet you showed today you had a massive upside target since December. Wow. Didnt hear too much focus on that.
Yes, the IWM index is down 34% from high in November 2021.How long is average bear market? Probably takes about 19 months to recover. Do you think bear markets are the 'natural state of the markets'? I think having situational awareness is vital. Cannot be bearish, looking for the "immediate turn down" every single day.
Do you think the number of stocks that drive innovation, make life what it is, advance health, drill for oil, etc, do you think the individual stocks always go down? It seems like money gets invested in stocks which causes prices to rise, NOT fall. When companies fail, prices fall, yes.
For future updates, please include the points of crossing for ES futures that seem to nail every move in the past 14 months. That is worth pot of gold
Hussman as anyone who has been on wall street for more than 20 years is 88% bearish. He has launched some funds or etfs, which is commendable, albeit, performance has probably approached -7% lower than T bonds since inception. What is it that some people always want to be the one "calling THEE top"? Situational awareness, my new mantra!
daniel039209
fyi im not a bull or a bear , i expect we are in a 5% trading band for next few months. If economy starts slipping, we fall 10% as recession looms.
johngreen01554628
brian1469 said:
johngreen01554628 said:
fast3777 said:
Peter,Thank you. No other analysis seems to make sense in this market. Just too much money and manipulation. The only metric that makes any sense is your valuation ratio. This market will turn down sooner than later. It could happen anytime now.
Could we get Double top before real leg down?
See also how low the VIX is, No positive divergence like 2022 top.
Why can't NDX/Dow ratio can't get back to 45 or 46.
Could happen within 14TD
NAAIM Exposure Index is low like everyone is bearish. need more Bulls. With higher prices??
Cascading new 30 min higher projection???
I believe that NAAIM is a slow number. When positioning is already like this. "Thursday saw the largest 1-day increase in SPX gamma on our record – dealers are now long ~$4bn of SPX gamma and out of the short gamma regime that we mainly witnessed for the past two months"
I do think we can get a santa rally like you said though. I also think we could just chop around and go no where which the projections kind of have me believing with conflicting projections
Projection says Market needs to head south soon. Any sideways or up moves will mean new projection Higher.
Need to do more 30 Min charts. Don't care about any long term projection. Just look at BTC, has big down projection. Did that help anyone?
Tuesday is another Turn date
We will find out
johngreen01554628
daniel039209 said:
Thanks for great long update. my takeaway; very glad you read some comments, i think fairly intelligent ones posted most of time. Last weekend update, you were severely bearish with massively lower downside targets. Okay, so we had a huge rally- how come you show the ES weekly is right 84% of time on upside and 100% of time on downside??? Not to mention since October 2022 when we were dancing on lows, you were ULTRA bearish. Same through December and January. Mostly until Late July, all of your bearish bias OBSERVATIONS were just flat out wrong. Yet you showed today you had a massive upside target since December. Wow. Didnt hear too much focus on that.
Yes, the IWM index is down 34% from high in November 2021.How long is average bear market? Probably takes about 19 months to recover. Do you think bear markets are the 'natural state of the markets'? I think having situational awareness is vital. Cannot be bearish, looking for the "immediate turn down" every single day.
Do you think the number of stocks that drive innovation, make life what it is, advance health, drill for oil, etc, do you think the individual stocks always go down? It seems like money gets invested in stocks which causes prices to rise, NOT fall. When companies fail, prices fall, yes.
For future updates, please include the points of crossing for ES futures that seem to nail every move in the past 14 months. That is worth pot of gold
ES future is the way to go. Most likely will still be looking for Huge crash
XXSPOWER127
PROJECTIONS
HIGHER
/ES 4500 ON THE 24.2
/NQ WILL GET 12.1 HIGHER AFTER TODAY CLOSE
/NQ HAS HIGHER 24.2 ALREADY
THEN YOU THINK 48 WONT? LOL OK
POWELL "NEWS" DRIVEN EVENT ON WED AND THURS
LETS SEE IF IT MOVES MARKETS
johngreen01554628
XXSPOWER127 said:
PROJECTIONS
HIGHER
/ES 4500 ON THE 24.2
/NQ WILL GET 12.1 HIGHER AFTER TODAY CLOSE
/NQ HAS HIGHER 24.2 ALREADY
THEN YOU THINK 48 WONT? LOL OK
POWELL "NEWS" DRIVEN EVENT ON WED AND THURS
LETS SEE IF IT MOVES MARKETS
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Comments (11)
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Thanks for taking the time. Great update. Very informative.
Peter,Thank you. No other analysis seems to make sense in this market. Just too much money and manipulation. The only metric that makes any sense is your valuation ratio. This market will turn down sooner than later. It could happen anytime now.
Last updated
Could we get Double top before real leg down?
See also how low the VIX is, No positive divergence like 2022 top.
Why can't NDX/Dow ratio can't get back to 45 or 46. Could happen within 14TD
NAAIM Exposure Index is low like everyone is bearish. need more Bulls. With higher prices?? Cascading new 30 min higher projection???
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?!NAAIM
I dont recall which day the video showed the US Dollar in a "topping formation" I tried to explain, if the US Dollar is going to weaken, that is very bullish for stocks- surprised Peter never mentioned that point. I wonder if that helped the SPX go up 5.8% in 5 days. I will watch this 55 min video later. I dont know if video is bullish or bearish, but why start Monday with a negative viewpoint after best rally of year, and i waited till Thurs to short with the "above levels" and still got run over.
Thanks for great long update. my takeaway; very glad you read some comments, i think fairly intelligent ones posted most of time. Last weekend update, you were severely bearish with massively lower downside targets. Okay, so we had a huge rally- how come you show the ES weekly is right 84% of time on upside and 100% of time on downside??? Not to mention since October 2022 when we were dancing on lows, you were ULTRA bearish. Same through December and January. Mostly until Late July, all of your bearish bias OBSERVATIONS were just flat out wrong. Yet you showed today you had a massive upside target since December. Wow. Didnt hear too much focus on that.
Yes, the IWM index is down 34% from high in November 2021.How long is average bear market? Probably takes about 19 months to recover. Do you think bear markets are the 'natural state of the markets'? I think having situational awareness is vital. Cannot be bearish, looking for the "immediate turn down" every single day. Do you think the number of stocks that drive innovation, make life what it is, advance health, drill for oil, etc, do you think the individual stocks always go down? It seems like money gets invested in stocks which causes prices to rise, NOT fall. When companies fail, prices fall, yes. For future updates, please include the points of crossing for ES futures that seem to nail every move in the past 14 months. That is worth pot of gold
https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1721527999822983378/photo/1
Hussman as anyone who has been on wall street for more than 20 years is 88% bearish. He has launched some funds or etfs, which is commendable, albeit, performance has probably approached -7% lower than T bonds since inception. What is it that some people always want to be the one "calling THEE top"? Situational awareness, my new mantra!
fyi im not a bull or a bear , i expect we are in a 5% trading band for next few months. If economy starts slipping, we fall 10% as recession looms.
Projection says Market needs to head south soon. Any sideways or up moves will mean new projection Higher. Need to do more 30 Min charts. Don't care about any long term projection. Just look at BTC, has big down projection. Did that help anyone?
Tuesday is another Turn date We will find out
ES future is the way to go. Most likely will still be looking for Huge crash
PROJECTIONS
HIGHER
/ES 4500 ON THE 24.2
/NQ WILL GET 12.1 HIGHER AFTER TODAY CLOSE /NQ HAS HIGHER 24.2 ALREADY
THEN YOU THINK 48 WONT? LOL OK
POWELL "NEWS" DRIVEN EVENT ON WED AND THURS LETS SEE IF IT MOVES MARKETS
Thank you
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