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SMC Update Week Ending 12-10-21 Recorded 12-11-21

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12/11/2021

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daniel039209
daniel039209

my sound is not working but i see the chart that points to 4850-4880 ?? sounds super bullish to me. covering shorts, getting long tm

thebigbluecheese
thebigbluecheese

Peter, you seem to randomly switch between using median price & closing price to talk about price projections. Which is the preferred metric & why & when should they be used? Have you run the stats on both approaches across all cycles to determine which is more reliable/robust?

Using median v close can generate some highly contradictory outcomes! To illustrate: Currently with the SPX daily charts, using median NOT close, there are no projections before the 7/8 (20 day) which generates upside of 4784/4842, the 12.1 (5 week) generates upside of 4882 BUT the 24.2/27.6 (10 week) has a preliminary downside projection of 4670.24.
Using closes instead of median we get the following projections: 1.75 (5 days) 4724/4734, then nothing until the 7/8 which is 4773/4863 the 12.1 is 4852/4884 & nothing for the 24.2/27.6.

With the SPX Weekly charts, the 5/5.01 nominal 10 week using the CLOSE, generates a projection of 4819 whereas the projection from the MEDIAN is 4447.93/4449.71! Huge differences, so let’s see if the statistics offer any guidance - nope! The statistics for the close show the upside projection has been reached 30 of 47 times i.e. 63.83%, whereas for the median shows that the downside projection has been reached 23 of 33 times i.e. 69.7%.

Can you please discuss these conflicting outcomes?

Using Median NOT Close, for the first time in a while (last was 9/17 …& was met), we are getting a confirmed weekly downside projection 4447.93/4449.71 . Isn’t a weekly projection pretty important, & shouldn’t this be part of the discussion?

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