SMC Update Week Ending 12-15-23 Recorded 12-16-23

12/16/2023


Comments (16)
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MJMassens2570
MJMassens2570

% of $SPX above its 50day avg... We're definitely at or only a few days out from an intermediate top. https://www.tradingview.com/x/rB8ZeHzD/

brian1469
brian1469

Thanks Peter I agree with you and said on here Friday the projections look toppy to me. Plus we had the lowest bears on the AAII in six years.

Janet Yellen and the MMT Merry Pranksters released their propaganda video yesterday and believe it confirms a top also.

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1735753851456663799

Last updated

CS37
CS37

MJMassens2570 said:

% of $SPX above its 50day avg... We're definitely at or only a few days out from an intermediate top. https://www.tradingview.com/x/rB8ZeHzD/

MJM: Interesting tradable divergence signals -- both tops and bottoms -- shown by your TradingView chart. Are you also able to show what the Jan 2022 top looked like for this S5FI indicator?

At this point, I agree with you that this looks to be an intermediate top, but it might be instructive to see what S5FI showed for the Jan 2022 top, as well, for comparison.

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

53.3% UP on the Q'S meanwhile back at the ranch.

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

CS37 said:

MJMassens2570 said:

% of $SPX above its 50day avg... We're definitely at or only a few days out from an intermediate top. https://www.tradingview.com/x/rB8ZeHzD/

MJM: Interesting tradable divergence signals -- both tops and bottoms -- shown by your TradingView chart. Are you also able to show what the Jan 2022 top looked like for this S5FI indicator?

At this point, I agree with you that this looks to be an intermediate top, but it might be instructive to see what S5FI showed for the Jan 2022 top, as well, for comparison.

I like looking at $SPXA200R
50day does not give accurate reads Money managers use 200 day ALSO YOU CANT GO SHORT UNTIL 5 DAY CLOSES BELOW 20 DAY ILL save all you sheep $$$ LMAO

CS37
CS37

XXSPOWER127 said:

CS37 said:

MJMassens2570 said:

% of $SPX above its 50day avg... We're definitely at or only a few days out from an intermediate top. https://www.tradingview.com/x/rB8ZeHzD/

MJM: Interesting tradable divergence signals -- both tops and bottoms -- shown by your TradingView chart. Are you also able to show what the Jan 2022 top looked like for this S5FI indicator?

At this point, I agree with you that this looks to be an intermediate top, but it might be instructive to see what S5FI showed for the Jan 2022 top, as well, for comparison.

I like looking at $SPXA200R
50day does not give accurate reads Money managers use 200 day ALSO YOU CANT GO SHORT UNTIL 5 DAY CLOSES BELOW 20 DAY ILL save all you sheep $$$ LMAO

BIGLY YUGE: MJM has shared with us all, his historical-to-present time chart, showing us what he's talking about. Care to do the same for your $SPXA200R?

Last updated

MJMassens2570
MJMassens2570

MJMassens2570 said:

% of $SPX above its 50day avg... We're definitely at or only a few days out from an intermediate top. https://www.tradingview.com/x/rB8ZeHzD/

Since people asked. here's the % of $SPX above 200 day average. Note how the 75% area is very difficult to get past, including covid peak... Only get past on real market breadth, not with "magnificent 7" https://www.tradingview.com/x/nn4STIYu/

And here's the 50day chart with expanded view to the left, since someone asked as well. https://www.tradingview.com/x/T0uOm0zd/

The lesson here is bear market tops happen on very poor breadth, as seen in Feb 2020 and December 2021. These occur in the 70's range. The 90's % range is best for finding market corrections, not starts to a bear market.

As with anything financial, do your own homework. I'm simply sharing my notes for context.

CS37
CS37

MJMassens2570 said:

MJMassens2570 said:

% of $SPX above its 50day avg... We're definitely at or only a few days out from an intermediate top. https://www.tradingview.com/x/rB8ZeHzD/

Since people asked. here's the % of $SPX above 200 day average. Note how the 75% area is very difficult to get past, including covid peak... Only get past on real market breadth, not with "magnificent 7" https://www.tradingview.com/x/nn4STIYu/

And here's the 50day chart with expanded view to the left, since someone asked as well. https://www.tradingview.com/x/T0uOm0zd/

The lesson here is bear market tops happen on very poor breadth, as seen in Feb 2020 and December 2021. These occur in the 70's range. The 90's % range is best for finding market corrections, not starts to a bear market.

As with anything financial, do your own homework. I'm simply sharing my notes for context.

Thanks, MJM. Insightful analysis!

brian1469
brian1469

I'm wondering on the ES 48 daily if we should be looking at the original upper projections given from the October low of 22 from last year the top part of the range is 4799. This other projection starts at 4867 given from this October.

We still have the the 189/194 also originally given from the October 22 low 4813 is the start of it. Would not surprise me to still get up there.

But the thing to look at here is it feels like the move up from the October 22 low is completing by getting to the top of the original 48 and the finally hitting the 189/194. The cycle feels complete up here.

Pretty amazing that as it stands now the SPX hit a bullseye last week on the highest projection from the original October 22 low at 4720 the mid point on the 189/194

Last updated

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

CS37 said:

XXSPOWER127 said:

CS37 said:

MJMassens2570 said:

% of $SPX above its 50day avg... We're definitely at or only a few days out from an intermediate top. https://www.tradingview.com/x/rB8ZeHzD/

MJM: Interesting tradable divergence signals -- both tops and bottoms -- shown by your TradingView chart. Are you also able to show what the Jan 2022 top looked like for this S5FI indicator?

At this point, I agree with you that this looks to be an intermediate top, but it might be instructive to see what S5FI showed for the Jan 2022 top, as well, for comparison.

I like looking at $SPXA200R
50day does not give accurate reads Money managers use 200 day ALSO YOU CANT GO SHORT UNTIL 5 DAY CLOSES BELOW 20 DAY ILL save all you sheep $$$ LMAO

BIGLY YUGE: MJM has shared with us all, his historical-to-present time chart, showing us what he's talking about. Care to do the same for your $SPXA200R?

SURE ILL SHARE

HIGHER HIGHER

WE GO HIGHER

5500 /ES IS MY TARGET FOR 2024

BOOKMARK IT 12.18.23

LMAO TO ALL SHEEP

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

@@@ ILL TELL U WHY PETER HAS NO CLUE WHAT HE IS TALKING ABOUT AND ILL SAVE SOME MORE SHEEP

A) GO TO @ES

B) GO TO 48.4

C) SEE THE PROJECTION ?

D) GO THEN TO WEEKLY

E) SEE THE PROJECTION ?

F) GO TO 24.2 SEE THE MONTHLY ? WE WILL BE OVER 4864.00

4900 EASY NEW HIGHS

SHEEP SAVED

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

/NQ 18834 !!!

YES 2000 POINTS HIGHER

DONT BE LEFT OUT LIKE A SHEEP IN IRELAND WAITING TO BE SHAVED

daniel039209
daniel039209

i think i heard on one of these recent video updates that the DJIA made a new all time high> also heard that was a bearish development because no other index hit new high. QQQ or NDX hit a new all time high today, is that bearish due to something in your view. I think you explained alot that the 1st stock fund you purchased( after a 300% gain) only to have it drop 20% immediately possibly could have made you a cautious if not BEARISH biased person. Overall, you retain a bearish bias as markets rally 50%, stocks rally265%, new technology seems like a joke to you. Watching these mostly for comments, video today was "only 40 more points" in ndx! Or another 140 points, whats the difference?

CS37
CS37

XXSPOWER127 said:

CS37 said:

XXSPOWER127 said:

CS37 said:

MJMassens2570 said:

% of $SPX above its 50day avg... We're definitely at or only a few days out from an intermediate top. https://www.tradingview.com/x/rB8ZeHzD/

MJM: Interesting tradable divergence signals -- both tops and bottoms -- shown by your TradingView chart. Are you also able to show what the Jan 2022 top looked like for this S5FI indicator?

At this point, I agree with you that this looks to be an intermediate top, but it might be instructive to see what S5FI showed for the Jan 2022 top, as well, for comparison.

I like looking at $SPXA200R
50day does not give accurate reads Money managers use 200 day ALSO YOU CANT GO SHORT UNTIL 5 DAY CLOSES BELOW 20 DAY ILL save all you sheep $$$ LMAO

BIGLY YUGE: MJM has shared with us all, his historical-to-present time chart, showing us what he's talking about. Care to do the same for your $SPXA200R?

SURE ILL SHARE

HIGHER HIGHER

WE GO HIGHER

5500 /ES IS MY TARGET FOR 2024

BOOKMARK IT 12.18.23

LMAO TO ALL SHEEP

BYOA: Yeah, I guess that would require some mental clarity and coherence. Sorry to ask for something that you just don't have.

Last updated

jwkim33366
jwkim33366

The long term projection on nasdaq composite that Peter has shown many times may still work out but.... NDX and NQ on the same offset have been invalidated. Also, right after it formed, it started moving in the opposite direction. Peter himself has said that type of pattern is not a super high confidence projection. There is no need to put all your eggs into one chart and one projection. No need to get bearish in the short-term until we actually start to get downside projections. Right now, there are literally no short term or intermediate downside projections to trade.

CS37
CS37

jwkim33366 said:

The long term projection on nasdaq composite that Peter has shown many times may still work out but.... NDX and NQ on the same offset have been invalidated. Also, right after it formed, it started moving in the opposite direction. Peter himself has said that type of pattern is not a super high confidence projection. There is no need to put all your eggs into one chart and one projection. No need to get bearish in the short-term until we actually start to get downside projections. Right now, there are literally no short term or intermediate downside projections to trade.

jwkim: All good points! Thx!

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