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csamsd834
I’ve asked a few times and will continue to do so - can you analyze the IWM - it’s been the weakest index - ditto oil which has been very strong
csamsd834
I’ve asked a few times and will continue to do so - can you analyze the IWM - it’s been the weakest index - ditto oil which has been very strong
thebigbluecheese
Given the price action of the past few weeks, I think we all would benefit more if the discussion moved away from bear or bull biases, ‘peripheral evidence’ divined from other forms of technical analysis & extreme ‘what if’ projections & just focused on how the different cycles are interacting & what they are suggesting in aggregate at a given point in time.
There are 8-9 daily & weekly offsets each of which generate different signals. There are also all the shorter time frame offsets ( 65 min, 30, 15… etc.) that are also generating signals & clues.
Right now, if you look at how the continuum (SPX.X) is setting up for each daily offset period, & use closing prices, it is pretty obvious (to me) that any sideways action over the next few days will generate upside projections in the 1.75/2, 3.5.4, 12.1/13.8, & maybe even the 24.2/27.6. Higher price action will for sure, generate crosses of the continuum& upside projections, BUT the opposite appears to be the case for the 7/8 offset if we just get sideways prices. (That would be an interesting discussion don’t you think?).
Then there are the slower moving, weekly continuums, where the shorter 2.5 appears (mutatis mutandis) appears to be the first of the weeklies to be setting up in a similar manner to the shorter daily offsets, i.e. potential for upside projections.
Currently, on the daily’s (SPX) we have a smorgasbord of up, down, about to be & no projections. How should we interpret this - what should we look for in the price action as it approaches & interacts with the continuum? How should we think about these conflicting projections in relation to each other - which has greater efficacy? Let’s talk about the important areas of focus for validation & invalidation of the projections that result. In light of all this information, why isolate and confine the discussion to just one (maybe two) projections (unless the ONLY projection(s)) & disregard all this other great information being generated by the system?
Over the past several weeks , the various cycles appear to be interacting in unusual ways and prices are (inter alia) being impacted by the (currently) shifting relationships between the more dominant cycle(s). Shouldn’t this also be part of the current discussion?
Peter @16:50 you switch from using closing prices to median prices. I have asked many times for an explanation of the merits/rationale for the use of closing v median prices. I am yet to receive a response.
It appears that using close tends to give a faster signal response (a bit like the difference between an EMA & a simple MA). But this is at odds with Hurst’s original work which calls for use of the median.
2 observations:
1) the projections generated by median v close can & often do vary considerably e.g. right now, the 96.8/110.6 daily in the SPX using median generates a projection of 4711:4847 which is quite different from the closing price projections of 4590:4747…..
2) with this knowledge, randomly switching back & forth between using median & close to generate signals appears to be laced with peril. Peter, based upon your experience, which do you recommend & why?
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I’ve asked a few times and will continue to do so - can you analyze the IWM - it’s been the weakest index - ditto oil which has been very strong
I’ve asked a few times and will continue to do so - can you analyze the IWM - it’s been the weakest index - ditto oil which has been very strong
Given the price action of the past few weeks, I think we all would benefit more if the discussion moved away from bear or bull biases, ‘peripheral evidence’ divined from other forms of technical analysis & extreme ‘what if’ projections & just focused on how the different cycles are interacting & what they are suggesting in aggregate at a given point in time.
There are 8-9 daily & weekly offsets each of which generate different signals. There are also all the shorter time frame offsets ( 65 min, 30, 15… etc.) that are also generating signals & clues.
Right now, if you look at how the continuum (SPX.X) is setting up for each daily offset period, & use closing prices, it is pretty obvious (to me) that any sideways action over the next few days will generate upside projections in the 1.75/2, 3.5.4, 12.1/13.8, & maybe even the 24.2/27.6. Higher price action will for sure, generate crosses of the continuum& upside projections, BUT the opposite appears to be the case for the 7/8 offset if we just get sideways prices. (That would be an interesting discussion don’t you think?).
Then there are the slower moving, weekly continuums, where the shorter 2.5 appears (mutatis mutandis) appears to be the first of the weeklies to be setting up in a similar manner to the shorter daily offsets, i.e. potential for upside projections.
Currently, on the daily’s (SPX) we have a smorgasbord of up, down, about to be & no projections. How should we interpret this - what should we look for in the price action as it approaches & interacts with the continuum? How should we think about these conflicting projections in relation to each other - which has greater efficacy? Let’s talk about the important areas of focus for validation & invalidation of the projections that result. In light of all this information, why isolate and confine the discussion to just one (maybe two) projections (unless the ONLY projection(s)) & disregard all this other great information being generated by the system?
Over the past several weeks , the various cycles appear to be interacting in unusual ways and prices are (inter alia) being impacted by the (currently) shifting relationships between the more dominant cycle(s). Shouldn’t this also be part of the current discussion?
Peter @16:50 you switch from using closing prices to median prices. I have asked many times for an explanation of the merits/rationale for the use of closing v median prices. I am yet to receive a response. It appears that using close tends to give a faster signal response (a bit like the difference between an EMA & a simple MA). But this is at odds with Hurst’s original work which calls for use of the median. 2 observations:
1) the projections generated by median v close can & often do vary considerably e.g. right now, the 96.8/110.6 daily in the SPX using median generates a projection of 4711:4847 which is quite different from the closing price projections of 4590:4747….. 2) with this knowledge, randomly switching back & forth between using median & close to generate signals appears to be laced with peril. Peter, based upon your experience, which do you recommend & why?
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