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MJMassens2570
I've seen several seasonality charts for pre-election year showing a big pullback starting early May. Wouldn't be surprised to see a peek around 4200 then a visit to 3950.
MJMassens2570
If I was bullish due to pre-election year seasonality, and looking for the recession to hit in very late 2023 or in 2024, I'd consider VIX with these trend lines. This is a 1month chart, but is just as effective in a 3month Quarterly time frame view. There's possible "liquidity" to stop hunt around the 14 area (a wick at 14.10), before a big retrace to upside on VIX. Note the monthly closing 15.77 roughly matches the lowest closing since all of Covid began! 15.84 in June 2021 was lowest close since 2019, until now! Wow! These are just my own musings. I trust the SP and NDX projections more than my lines. https://www.tradingview.com/x/hGWcGOeU/
Last updated
stantastique4055
How many bear market years are in that 25 year VIX history? Isn't that something like 5 years? is it possible that we need much more data to test this VIX rule?
daniel039209
what is so difficult to understand is from Wednesdays update the SPX advanced 120 points, the NDX advanced over 400 points. that is on top of the 300 spx point gain and 2000 point gain on NDX. And the focus is still on "the bear market" about to re assert itself. The bear market and VIX. This has been an annihilation of short positioning. Yet, if you just say "bear market" does the 2000 point MISS on upside make everyone feel better? i have dozen times : THIS IS NOT 2000-03 nor 2007-09 bear market not at all. And onde daywhen we are much higher, there will be a mea culpa. Hope that makes everyone feel good about missing one of the most amazing rallies in a while. And maybe focus on individual names NOT trying to pick 100 500 wilshire 5000 anyone? to make predictions.
daniel039209
wait , is this a more bullish update? lots of upside being shown in NDX? any help appreciated
dcarter8883312
Welcome Home Peter:
When barely meeting upside projections please click on bar so we can see upper band of the higher projections. Please cover SPX & ESM projections more often Vs EW SPX . I am curious what the upper projections are on NDX not met yet. I do think we have one more push up this week. Apple’s Tim Cook is the Master of orchestrating Good EPS. Thanks~
Dorothy
daniel039209
dcarter8883312 said:
Welcome Home Peter:
When barely meeting upside projections please click on bar so we can see upper band of the higher projections. Please cover SPX & ESM projections more often Vs EW SPX . I am curious what the upper projections are on NDX not met yet. I do think we have one more push up this week. Apple’s Tim Cook is the Master of orchestrating Good EPS. Thanks~
Dorothy
I second Dorothy's request. NO one trades the EW SPX .
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Comments (9)
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I've seen several seasonality charts for pre-election year showing a big pullback starting early May. Wouldn't be surprised to see a peek around 4200 then a visit to 3950.
If I was bullish due to pre-election year seasonality, and looking for the recession to hit in very late 2023 or in 2024, I'd consider VIX with these trend lines. This is a 1month chart, but is just as effective in a 3month Quarterly time frame view. There's possible "liquidity" to stop hunt around the 14 area (a wick at 14.10), before a big retrace to upside on VIX. Note the monthly closing 15.77 roughly matches the lowest closing since all of Covid began! 15.84 in June 2021 was lowest close since 2019, until now! Wow! These are just my own musings. I trust the SP and NDX projections more than my lines. https://www.tradingview.com/x/hGWcGOeU/
Last updated
How many bear market years are in that 25 year VIX history? Isn't that something like 5 years? is it possible that we need much more data to test this VIX rule?
what is so difficult to understand is from Wednesdays update the SPX advanced 120 points, the NDX advanced over 400 points. that is on top of the 300 spx point gain and 2000 point gain on NDX. And the focus is still on "the bear market" about to re assert itself. The bear market and VIX. This has been an annihilation of short positioning. Yet, if you just say "bear market" does the 2000 point MISS on upside make everyone feel better? i have dozen times : THIS IS NOT 2000-03 nor 2007-09 bear market not at all. And onde daywhen we are much higher, there will be a mea culpa. Hope that makes everyone feel good about missing one of the most amazing rallies in a while. And maybe focus on individual names NOT trying to pick 100 500 wilshire 5000 anyone? to make predictions.
wait , is this a more bullish update? lots of upside being shown in NDX? any help appreciated
Welcome Home Peter: When barely meeting upside projections please click on bar so we can see upper band of the higher projections. Please cover SPX & ESM projections more often Vs EW SPX . I am curious what the upper projections are on NDX not met yet. I do think we have one more push up this week. Apple’s Tim Cook is the Master of orchestrating Good EPS. Thanks~ Dorothy
I second Dorothy's request. NO one trades the EW SPX .
Please include Apple, nivida, Tesla in web app
I agree
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