SMC Update Week Ending 5-12-23 Recorded 5-13-23

05/13/2023


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spencerdavis2000
spencerdavis2000

Thanks Peter have a great weekend

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

PETER: I just sent you email about cure for vertigo! ~Dorothy 🙏

brian1469
brian1469

4150 on the ES is giving us all Vertigo!

Peter hope you start to feel better if you need a couple days off I don't think you are going to miss much

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

brian1469 said:

4150 on the ES is giving us all Vertigo!

Peter hope you start to feel better if you need a couple days off I don't think you are going to miss much

brian1469 said:

4150 on the ES is giving us all Vertigo!

Peter hope you start to feel better if you need a couple days off I don't think you are going to miss much

Peter: Brian lol I speak from experience the room was spinning 😵‍💫 I couldn’t lift head up off pillow without blacking out. ENT Doc did all tests nothing helped until I took OTC $6 Rugby Travel Motion Sickness ‘CHEWABLE’ Tabs. PETER Keep bottle on night side table. ~Dorothy

dcarter8883312
dcarter8883312

brian1469 said:

4150 on the ES is giving us all Vertigo!

Peter hope you start to feel better if you need a couple days off I don't think you are going to miss much

brian1469 said:

4150 on the ES is giving us all Vertigo!

Peter hope you start to feel better if you need a couple days off I don't think you are going to miss much

Peter: Brian lol I speak from experience the room was spinning 😵‍💫 I couldn’t lift head up off pillow without blacking out. ENT Doc did all tests nothing helped until I took OTC $6 Rugby Travel Motion Sickness ‘CHEWABLE’ Tabs. PETER Keep bottle on night side table. ~Dorothy

daniel039209
daniel039209

Candlestick analysis; I did say it at the time; you completely ignored the BULLISH engulfing candle on NDX 3/17/23 close. Might have negative daily on Friday BUT weekly much more weighty It has be a LONG side trade since 12,519. Period We have traveled 900 points. Until last Wednesday, you rarely allowed for upside. It makes no sense. Again, I don’t watch these videos until midday. It’s usually too bearish, the ES_z minis typically open higher and shorting after shorting after shorting makes not sense “waiting for turn down imminently”.

daniel039209
daniel039209

Peter, why do you use April as your "start date" of calling sell signals using VIX ( for the last 2 other big bear markets- which this is UNLIKE those up to this date) when you started using VIX as a "sell signal " in early January. SPx was 300+ points lower. NDX was 2300 points lower. Its not accurate how you "started to be bearish April 1" Random pick. The fact is, as Peter Lynch pointed decades ago; " more money is lost guessing/anticipating/shorting the top than if you lived through a decline" . Out of market or SHORT while the SPX moves 10-13% and NDX ~25% higher, one will NEVER make that money back.

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

let me guess ... we are at a CRUCIAL time... yawn .... $VXX $UVXY $vixm all those show LOWER LOWER LOWER $SVXY SHOWS HIGHER HIGHER HIGHER /ES WEEKLY ANYONE ? /NQ WEEKLY ANYONE ?

NO ONE LOOKS AT IT

JUST LETS IT SIT THERE .. they only talk about some random 7000 /NQ 4 YR you know that is not gonna hit

MarketTiming01
MarketTiming01

more and more talking heads are suggesting a USA default will result in a market melt UP/hyper inflation .............. who the heck knows .... just more stuff to consider as we play this game called "investing" ... good luck to all

daniel039209
daniel039209

The market goes up a little each day. That’s not a bear rally. Bear rallies are vicious, huge up days that convince you to cover and go long. This is a grind- for 7-8 months

Peter Eliades
Peter Eliades

Are a lot of you out there following the same SPX that I am? Sell signals in a bear market from the VIX Index come when they 1)enter historically low levels for bear markets (arbitrarily below 19-20) then 2) break above downtrend line. Condition 2 is important, and by my reckoning, it was not clearly observed until the very end of January-start of February. Has anyone seen a close above the Feb 2 close over the past three months??!! No, because there have not been any! Yet so many here and elsewhere sound the alarm of a market that keeps going higher and higher. It has made no progress in 14 weeks since the Feb 2 high!!! The indicator has worked almost perfectly for SPX albeit we have seen no downside initiation as yet. Now the NDX is a different story and that has indeed proceeded further over the past three months, but even there we are talking a gain of just under 5%. In the meantime, we have reliable nominal 4 year projections that it should decline to at least 9036 (LOG Projection-Down 32.6% from current levels!) or 7851 (Linear Projection-Down 41.5% from current levels!) Which would you suggest we should have been more alert for? The 5% advance or the 33-42% decline?

daniel039209
daniel039209

Peter Eliades said:

Are a lot of you out there following the same SPX that I am? Sell signals in a bear market from the VIX Index come when they 1)enter historically low levels for bear markets (arbitrarily below 19-20) then 2) break above downtrend line. Condition 2 is important, and by my reckoning, it was not clearly observed until the very end of January-start of February. Has anyone seen a close above the Feb 2 close over the past three months??!! No, because there have not been any! Yet so many here and elsewhere sound the alarm of a market that keeps going higher and higher. It has made no progress in 14 weeks since the Feb 2 high!!! The indicator has worked almost perfectly for SPX albeit we have seen no downside initiation as yet. Now the NDX is a different story and that has indeed proceeded further over the past three months, but even there we are talking a gain of just under 5%. In the meantime, we have reliable nominal 4 year projections that it should decline to at least 9036 (LOG Projection-Down 32.6% from current levels!) or 7851 (Linear Projection-Down 41.5% from current levels!) Which would you suggest we should have been more alert for? The 5% advance or the 33-42% decline? Peter Eliades said:

Are a lot of you out there following the same SPX that I am? Sell signals in a bear market from the VIX Index come when they 1)enter historically low levels for bear markets (arbitrarily below 19-20) then 2) break above downtrend line. Condition 2 is important, and by my reckoning, it was not clearly observed until the very end of January-start of February. Has anyone seen a close above the Feb 2 close over the past three months??!! No, because there have not been any! Yet so many here and elsewhere sound the alarm of a market that keeps going higher and higher. It has made no progress in 14 weeks since the Feb 2 high!!! The indicator has worked almost perfectly for SPX albeit we have seen no downside initiation as yet. Now the NDX is a different story and that has indeed proceeded further over the past three months, but even there we are talking a gain of just under 5%. In the meantime, we have reliable nominal 4 year projections that it should decline to at least 9036 (LOG Projection-Down 32.6% from current levels!) or 7851 (Linear Projection-Down 41.5% from current levels!) Which would you suggest we should have been more alert for? The 5% advance or the 33-42% decline?

AAPL & MSFT make up a significant part of SPX. How is it a "good plan" to have missed 15-28% rallies waiting for a 6 sigma event to take the WHOLE market down? refer to Peter Lynch's comments about "picking tops/waiting for crash to get in" One misses the entire gain on way up, and noone times "get back in " at right time.

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