SMC Update Week Ending 8-18-23 Recorded 8-19-23

08/19/2023


Comments (10)
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brian1469
brian1469

Awesome update Peter! Time to be on our toes

Even looking at the projections we still could have a small rally and sideways move the rest of the month and then have a brutal September and it looks like it would all still be on the table.

We could also just have the panic we have been looking for. I thought a couple months ago on here we could panic into the BRICS meeting which is this week. That could just as easily happen.

Regardless it looks like we are now set up for a real bear market and the last 1-2 years has really just been a huge topping pattern.

Also the NQ 100/110 upper projection at 16,636 got invalidated

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John_cash9154493
John_cash9154493

what happened to that 94 years top? will we get bounce like 1929,1987, 2000.2008 top then the Bounce then the Crash? When will the Bounce come? Not getting bounce next week would be a good thing. Bounce in September 94 years cycle high?

brian1469
brian1469

John_cash9154493 said:

what happened to that 94 years top? will we get bounce like 1929,1987, 2000.2008 top then the Bounce then the Crash? When will the Bounce come? Not getting bounce next week would be a good thing. Bounce in September 94 years cycle high?

The actual target was in June if you counted the days. I believe it was more just based on the principal of the cycle.

Pretty neat to read about 1835 here. They had massive inflation just like we have had.

The crisis followed a period of economic expansion from mid-1834 to mid-1836. The prices of land, cotton, and slaves rose sharply in those years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1837#:~:text=The%20Panic%20of%201837%20was,unemployment%20rose%2C%20and%20pessimism%20abounded.

fast3777
fast3777

In wave 2 of 3....probably go into Globex or early tomorrow. Whenever it ends than we roll to the downside maybe SPX 4000? Following Chris Carolan spriral calendar, the Market topped on August 1-2 and hit a bullseye. This cycle will include a panic. No Fear yet but it will manifest it self in the cycle C down. The Dow should be weak. Japan is very bearish and BTC.

And I can't forget Peter nailed the top too. Using a NDX/Dow ratio....not just cycle analysis. Amazing

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fast3777
fast3777

Peter a good friend of your's gave a mention about your cycle work,especially the 94 year cycle. It was interesting that your friend now considers this move up part of a overall topping process ie a double top. Hang on because the DAX also has a double top.

fast3777
fast3777

The stock market can not handle a 6 percent handle on ST rates and that's in the cards. The JNK has a real nice H&S pattern. I do not know when the rating agencies down grade the Banks but it will happen. All markets will turn down and that will solidify the bear market. The Fed is powerless.

fast3777
fast3777

The Pros have the premium factored in the puts pretty high. No matter what level they manipulate the VIX at. They know the markets headed a lot lower.

John_cash9154493
John_cash9154493

It might help to look at short term first. Dreaming about big downside is what made you loose the Big Move up. When picture don't fit you look at Log projection. Log is the way to go,

fast3777
fast3777

The bad news: The TNX made a new high today and this decline so far is much to do about nothing. These kind of markets always surprise to the downside. Did we finish a dead cat bounce in the cash or will it continue tomorrow?

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fast3777
fast3777

This market will be a carbon copy of 1987....the Fed has lost control....this market can't handle a 6 to 7 pct handle with a debt load across the board and declining revenue in Federal taxes and no energy receipts to fall back on....I smell lit fuses to a economic disaster.

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